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*Blog* October Long Range Outlook

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*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Empty *Blog* October Long Range Outlook

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 08, 2015 7:49 pm

Hello all,

Sorry for the late release. Here is the blog I promised. Give it a read!

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/10/october-long-range-outlook.html

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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:36 am

Hey Frank great write up but I noticed you were comparing two diff time frames when comparing the GEFS to the EPS.  Both show the same partially phased trough by mid week next week and the pos to neutral EPO.  The PNA spikes positive as a result of the ULL off the SW coast despit the fact the EPO is also pos to neutral.  

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook <a href=*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Eps_z510" />
*Blog* October Long Range Outlook <a href=*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Gefs_z10" />

After this partially phased trough moves up and out it does look like both models agree that the Aleutian trough slides into place, and amplifies the ridge up into Alaska by about the 17th; as you pointed out due to the MJO pulse; however, what I find interesting is notice how on both models the ULL well off the SW coast amplifying the PNA ridge on the 13th drifts back east as the run progresses towards the 17th.  

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook <a href=*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Eps_z511" />
*Blog* October Long Range Outlook <a href=*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Gefs_z11" />

So despite the fact that the Alaskan ridge is amplifying, which would result in a trough amplifying into the east, the energy from that SW ULL, which by the way has been meandering back and fourth in the same areas now for several weeks,  aids in pumping up the ridge again into the Midwest which could have a direct effect on the trough into the east.  I think the keys to how it plays out are  1) is where does the trough position itself and how strong relative to the Aluetian Islands  2) how strong does the alaskan ridge get as a result vs 3) how much does the ridging into the midwest rebound as that energy off the SW coast drifts back east over the SW CONUS/N Mexico.  If ridging builds back into the Midwest and SE strong enough and fast enough we will prob see the base of the longwave trough flatten out, the flow cont to be progressive and the colder air become more moderate and transient.  By the 18th last nights EPS already is moving the trough out.  

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook <a href=*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Eps_z512" />


We will have to cont to monitor thee trends moving forward, but given the time of year my guess is that the warmer air will win out for now and we see a more transient/progressive pattern persist; however, a glimpse into how the pattern may go through the winter months.  As long as the snow pack cont to build in the north the strength of the troughs digging into the east will increase.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:46 am

Hi Scott,

I purposely showed the EPS at a later time frame. I thought it was too redundant to show both models show the same thing in regards to the partial phasing early next week. What I wanted to stress was the EPS keeps our pattern amplified while the GEFS stays progressive. I do not put much stock into the SW ULL. The contours open up it kinda loses its ULL influence. Instead, the pattern looks more split-jet to me with the STJ and PJ.

The GEFS last night made a huge shift to the EPS. They now keep the pattern amplified through all of next week with a trough over the east. It's not EPS level amplified, but it's still close.

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_43

This period of cooler than normal weather should continue into the 3rd week of October before we switch back to normal / above normal.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 09, 2015 9:01 am

We will see Frank. Recall this post I had from a few days ago in the LR thread. Notice how in the long range in the Means the ULL in the SW is depicted as an open wave.  But then as we get closer it shows up more consolidated as a true ULL influencing ridging in the west or ridging into the east depending on its exact position.


So I just want to recall the map I posted the other day:  Euro ensemble mean at 500mb hr 228: OCT 13th 12z time frame

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook <a href=*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Euro_e11" />

Same time frame now only 132 hrs out. Notice how the positives (warm colors) over the plains have pulled back building a positive PNA ridge (https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t575-pna-ridge-in-west#66938).  Consequently you can see the trough in the east.   I thought; however, the positives would build into Alaska( negative EPO) as well, but it looks like negative heights (cool colors) are building into Alaska (positive EPO) instead.  This will lead to cooler temps but we still have Pacific air mixing into the equation with this pattern.  

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook <a href=*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Euro_e12" />


If you look at the current WV you can clearly see the influence on the Ridge centered over S Fla/Cuba leading to our warm and relatively higher humidity today with the SW flow out ahead of the front scheduled to move into the area later today and tonight.  Again you may be right Frank but I contest that the means will trend back towards an ULL in the SW.  How strong and where positioned could have an effect on the trough sticking around or not.  

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Wv-animated

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 9:20 am

Scott,

Have you looked at last night's 00z runs? The image you are referencing is from Wednesday 00z. The EPS no longer have those low heights over Alaska or Western Province of Canada. Instead, the -EPO/+PNA couplet develops.

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_7

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8

You can see how the SW ULL begins to integrate itself into the jet stream.

Check out the 3rd week of October.

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9

We have a split level in the west and the Aleutian trough retrogrades to become even stronger and amplify heights more.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 09, 2015 9:39 am

Frank the image you show above is depicting 00z Oct 15th.  The image I am showing is valid for 12z Oct 13th time frame.  First image was 00z Oct 4th hr 228 and second was 00z Oct 8th hr 132.  The neg heights into Alaska are still there as per 00z last night EPS and GEFS for this time frame.  

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_5

My point with my post was back on Oct 4th when Oct13th was 228hrs out the Upper level energy was depicted as an open wave.  Now it is a clear and strong ULL off the SW coast aiding in pumping the +PNA ridging in the west at this time frame.  Again I contest that the further out you go in the means the wider the spread on the Structure of the upper level energy in the SW making it look more like an open wave.  So as of now beyond 5-7day it appears in the means that the upper level energy in the SW is an open wave incoorporating into the main flow like you say.  My theory is that as we get under 5-7days or so the means will begin to consolidate the energy again similar to the way it is showing for the Oct 13th time frame back to an ULL and "possibly" center it back over land.  Because of this I also contest that due to climatology, the time of year, that the trough may not have enough staying power and be as deep into the east coast if you will as is currently predicted because the ridging in the SE reamplifies again to a certain degree deflecting it NE.  I absolutely see the ridge amplifying tremendously in the west all the way up into Alaska and beyond in 5-7day, and this could be the reason why my theory busts, but Im not sold yet on the ridging in the SE not coming back to dampen the effects of the trough somewhat this time around.  Again time will tell, and I absolutely could be wrong here.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 9:55 am

Understood. I see what you mean now. You're basically signaling the ULL as a wildcard feature that could change the outlook of the long range again. Correct?

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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:02 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Understood. I see what you mean now. You're basically signaling the ULL as a wildcard feature that could change the outlook of the long range again. Correct?

Bingo. Not necessarily change entirely but modify

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:03 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Understood. I see what you mean now. You're basically signaling the ULL as a wildcard feature that could change the outlook of the long range again. Correct?

Bingo.  Not necessarily change entirely but modify

Thumbs up

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:11 pm

All globals in agreement of significant pattern change to colder weather

*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Test8

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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:58 am

Watch the Tropical system down south
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:02 am

Snow I know gfs and now euro too develop a storm. Gfs has been on and off making it a Atlantic monster.00z gfs has a storm of 965mb well offshore but the wind field at least at 850mb is well as wide as sandy was. A long ways to go but feel this could be another hybrid possibility.
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 10, 2015 7:10 am

Next week we see our first frost and freeze warning for our area, many of us. Maybe not the heat engine of nyc .
*Blog* October Long Range Outlook Post-564-0-52208200-1444472898

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