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Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28

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Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Empty Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 26, 2015 6:45 pm

Praise the Lord...RAIN!!! I know it hasn't felt dry but the greater northeast region is still in a drought. I mentioned last week we are likely to see a couple of storm systems the last few days of October and the beginning of November.

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Gfs_z500_sig_noram_9

This map does not show vorticity rather just H5 height anomalies. The dip in heights over the center of the country is actually the remnants of Hurricane Patricia. This energy will track a warm front toward our area during the day Wednesday. In the upper Midwest is another piece of strong vorticity ready to phase into Pateicias energy. A potent low pressure system will develop and track into the Great Lakes which will push the warm front toward our area.

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66

Rain probably will not start until early to mid afternoon Wednesday. It will turn steady during the rush hour commute home. The heaviest rain will fall between 7pm - 2am. A general 1-2 inches can be expected.

The wind will also be a story.

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Gfs_mslp_uv10g_nyc_9

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Gfs_ptype_slp_ne_10

Strong pressure gradients as a result of the 980mb low in the Great Lakes and the High located off the coast of New England will cause winds to gust near 40mph or higher along the immediate coast. The worst of the wind is expected in the evening hours. Please keep this in mind when driving Wednesday evening.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:13 pm

Good explanation as usual, I noted you posted the 18z hr GFS, I noted the winds highest around 00z time stamp and that the winds will be highest the further north you to toward the GL. And curious I noticed you always use GFS maps, any reason for your preference over say the Euro? Sorry one more question where did ypu find gust map on wxbell for GFS (I always thought the only one was Euro that had that map, I cannot seem to find it anywhere.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:15 pm

Sratch that I found the GFS wind maps, lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:31 pm

Both models are in fair agreement with the forecast. GFS is listed first on Wx Bell so it's probably more due to laziness.

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:52 pm

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Gfs_apcpn_neus_11

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:33 am

RGEM

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Image.thumb.gif.8cbc358826a36c89b105b301ff137538

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:08 am

I'll believe it when I see it. NNJ has been mis-forecast for precip lately. I figure on maybe 1.5" for Bergen County. We'll see where it sets up overnight.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 27, 2015 12:23 pm

Wow im in the 75-100mm, that's a lot of rain, he Frank or anyone, I read NWS and although the jet will be pushing 60+ mph they said will not mix down much. Why is this, seems like there could be convection that could mix that down. I always thought that heavier bursts of rain would bring winds aloft down to surface, I understand its still going to be windy and not saying that that's not bad enough but was just curious as to why they would not mix down.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:06 pm

@Jman - there may be an inversion somewhere. This means winds at the 850mb may be blowing in a different direction than winds say at 925mb or the surface. Latest model trends DO NOT show impressive winds. At 850mb, they're between 35-45 mph. When translated to the surface, that's more in the 15-25mph range. Latest GFS wind speed:

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Gfs_mslp_uv10m_nyc_6

We may see some gusts in excess of 25mph, but it's nothing crazy.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:07 pm

I am increasing rain amounts from 1-2" to 1.50-2.50" across the region. GFS now has heavier rain moving in earlier than expected. Possibly as soon as 2-3pm.

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:@Jman - there may be an inversion somewhere. This means winds at the 850mb may be blowing in a different direction than winds say at 925mb or the surface. Latest model trends DO NOT show impressive winds. At 850mb, they're between 35-45 mph. When translated to the surface, that's more in the 15-25mph range. Latest GFS wind speed:

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Gfs_mslp_uv10m_nyc_6

We may see some gusts in excess of 25mph, but it's nothing crazy.

Yeah that's what they were saying, but did not notate as to why exactly. Thx
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:44 pm

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 StormTotalQPFFcst

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:39 pm

Euro actually has much high wind gusts than the GFS 35-45mph some higher per the 12z maps, which will be correct....? NWS also mentioned the possibility that there could be isolated mixing down, last night it was they were sure they wouldn't, wind advisories not expected though likely because there will be no big duration, unless there are last minute changes in the upper levels tomorrow evening. The rain although great for environment is least favorite of my weather interests. Wish this was snow, hoping we get some whoppers like this in the white version.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:49 pm

Dang!

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Nam10
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:23 pm

NAM and RGEM on opposite pages as far as rain amounts in this part of NJ. GEM focusing it along CNJ and NAM far east NJ almost no rain few tenths of an inch if its right, 1-2"+ if gem is right.
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Post by snow247 Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:09 pm

Impressive looking radar

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Image11
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Oct 28, 2015 5:12 am

Most of the rain looks way west and north
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 28, 2015 8:16 am

I think by look of future cast it's supposed to fill in this afternoon and evening.
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Post by Guest Wed Oct 28, 2015 8:23 am

Looking at the radar 90% of all the rain currently is falling n and w of i95. The radar south of the tri state is very sparse. I know it's early but unless the radar fills in down by the Delmarva I can only see most of us only getting a few rounds of moderate showers and no more than .33" Areas from the pocono's north and east thru the catskills and into Mass. should do real well 1.5"+

Hopefully the radar begins filling in.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 28, 2015 8:39 am

It's getting very breezy with a steady wind here dark clouds Def feels like storm is coming. Just seen a few light showers.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 28, 2015 8:40 am

.33 so that's pretty darn specific how did u come up with that number. If so would be quite a fail on models.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 28, 2015 9:05 am

syosnow94 wrote:Looking at the radar 90% of all the rain currently is falling n and w of i95.  The radar south of the tri state is very sparse.  I know it's early but unless the radar fills in down by the Delmarva I can only see most of us only getting a few rounds of moderate showers and no more than .33"  Areas from the pocono's north and east thru the catskills and into Mass. should do real well 1.5"+

Hopefully the radar begins filling in.


James the main surface LP is still only centered over Wisconsin/N Illinois with a secondary down in Tx that will combine forces later today into tonight.  

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Pmsl
Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 <a href=Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Usa10" />

In addition to that looking at the upper levels (500mb) The ULL and strong tough will capture the s/w later today phasing the two systems and the radar should fill in up and down the mid atlantic into the NE quickly once that occurs later.  Timing of it all though will play a role in totals locally.  
Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 <a href=Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 500mb_10" />

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Post by Guest Wed Oct 28, 2015 9:27 am

@jmanley32 wrote:.33 so that's pretty darn specific how did u come up with that number. If so would be quite a fail on models.

Looked at observations on what has fallen downstream (s and w) of us. Hopefully sroc is right.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 28, 2015 11:13 am

Impressive looking storm. Even have snow following over MN where winds are coming out of the north and pulling down cold air. Later today, we'll see this system gradually strengthen and bring heavy rains to our area between 7pm and Midnight.

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Untitled

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 28, 2015 11:14 am

Most of the rain that falls today before 5pm will be light to moderate. Radar does not look impressive now but it will by late tonight.

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 Inxr1Kphla_h

Rain & Wind Storm Wednesday 10/28 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21

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