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November 2015 Observations & Discussions

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CPcantmeasuresnow
UnionWX
billg315
Math23x7
dkodgis
aiannone
rb924119
Dunnzoo
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algae888
sroc4
skinsfan1177
snow247
Dtone
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amugs
jmanley32
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mako460
docstox12
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Nov 07, 2015 7:15 pm

@amugs wrote:Skins Happy Birthday!!!
Thanks mugs I enjoy reading your post keep up the great work
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Post by Dtone Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:39 pm

Today's high was actually 72 at midnight.
5th straight day 70+ which may be a record consecutive stretch for Nov.
The most 70+ days in Nov ever is 7.

Record highs were set today at LGA (72*) & JFK (70*) both at midnight.
Both set a record the day before as well at 75*

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 08, 2015 11:54 am

The coastal storm on Tuesday is a good example of how an El Nino can influence the sub tropical jet stream. This system crept up on the models. It went from a weak wave to a formidable coastal. Get ready...we could see tons of these. But will there be cold air?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 08, 2015 1:12 pm

GFS cutback rain amounts

November 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 GFS-MAXRES_QPFtotal_ne_f84

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Nov 08, 2015 1:19 pm

Hey mugs and doc, "South and east" Razz

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by docstox12 Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:01 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:Hey mugs and doc, "South and east"   Razz

LOL, in the winter contest they are all buying into us in the N and W getting more snow.I'm on the record saying Doc in LI will be the winner.That S and E trend is set in stone right now and I'll believe it's over when LI gets 25 inches and CP and I get 70!!!

25.5 degrees, 90%, 30.29R.ANOTHER heavy frost.Winters back!! Pattern is warm cold, warm cold right now.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:24 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS cutback rain amounts

November 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 GFS-MAXRES_QPFtotal_ne_f84

The reason for this is that your upper level forcings are completely disjointed from your lower levels. The bullseye off the coast is a result of the WCB (Warm Conveyor Belt) associated with the developing surface and lower level circulations, which also helps to enhance the right entrance region of the jet to the northeast. The one to the west is due to the shortwave at H5 tracking northeastward from the Ohio Valley. As that shortwave moves, though, it is also opening up to remerge with the mid-latitude flow; typical of a progressive pattern. Because it opens up, the forcing (PVA/positive vorticity advection) weakens, which causes the precip to die out before reaching our area (mostly). The interesting part to watch is to see how the lower levels evolve, though, because you could get a little zone of lower level convergence on the backside of the H8 low (if it can close off), which might be just enough to get showers/drizzle to linger through the first half of Wednesday.

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:32 am

33* and frost this morning - feels like November!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 09, 2015 11:56 am

Frost on my car too!  Was pretty chilly compared to last week, still bit cool today, I like, a  bit more seasonable.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 09, 2015 12:43 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS cutback rain amounts

November 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 GFS-MAXRES_QPFtotal_ne_f84

The reason for this is that your upper level forcings are completely disjointed from your lower levels. The bullseye off the coast is a result of the WCB (Warm Conveyor Belt) associated with the developing surface and lower level circulations, which also helps to enhance the right entrance region of the jet to the northeast. The one to the west is due to the shortwave at H5 tracking northeastward from the Ohio Valley.  As that shortwave moves, though, it is also opening up to remerge with the mid-latitude flow; typical of a progressive pattern. Because it opens up, the forcing (PVA/positive vorticity advection) weakens, which causes the precip to die out before reaching our area (mostly). The interesting part to watch is to see how the lower levels evolve, though, because you could get a little zone of lower level convergence on the backside of the H8 low (if it can close off), which might be just enough to get showers/drizzle to linger through the first half of Wednesday.

Good explanation. Thank you.

Today's 12z GFS continued that trend. .50-1.00" of rain likely.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:13 pm

Late notice...but the weather for tomorrow won't be nearly as wet. As rb mentioned, there is a disconnect between the northern and southern features of our atmosphere. The bulk of the rain will remain offshore or confined to the west. May not even get a quarter of an inch.

November 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:33 pm

frank what a difference between the short range and long range models for tomorrow...
November 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Rgem_apcpn_us_16
rgem and nam similar...
November 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Gfs_apcpn_us_8
gfs and euro alike. if this was snow we would be going nuts trying to figure this storm out.lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:37 pm

Looks to be sliding south to me

November 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Inxr1Kphla_h

You can clearly distinct both features.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:38 pm

I had always heard that the nam overdoes precip and you need to take at least a third off?

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:41 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:I had always heard that the nam overdoes precip and you need to take at least a third off?
yes janet I agree but the rgem is usually very good at this range.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:41 pm

Some heavy rain still west....

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:43 pm

also upton after lowering totals this morning increased them late this afternoon...
November 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 StormTotalQPFFcst
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks to be sliding south to me

November 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Inxr1Kphla_h

You can clearly distinct both features.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx


Can't get the animation link to show in the frame....

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Nov 10, 2015 5:22 am

60° .17 in the bucket. Also just read this think it's a good read andctouches on all factors for this upcoming winter.

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/community/groups/viewdiscussion/2158-winter-forecast-15-16?groupid=29
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Post by Guest Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:59 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks to be sliding south to me

November 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Inxr1Kphla_h

You can clearly distinct both features.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

So.......A coastal that dumps most of its precip. S and E Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy THE TREND CONTINUES???????? I love you I love you

.28" so far here in Nassau county. More to the S and E. moderate rain right now and for the next few hours. Maybe end up with .5"

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 10, 2015 11:06 am

Hey ladies and gents, I just had this shared with me by a friend/coworker on Facebook; what a sick site!! It doesn't have everything, but it has some really nice graphics. Check it out!!

http://www.pivotalweather.com

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Nov 10, 2015 12:26 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks to be sliding south to me

November 2015 Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Inxr1Kphla_h

You can clearly distinct both features.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

So.......A coastal that dumps most of its precip.   S and E Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy   THE TREND CONTINUES???????? I love you I love you

.28" so far here in Nassau county.  More to the S and E.  moderate rain right now and for the next few hours.  Maybe end up with .5"

Syo I got lots of rain I'm going to say at least an inch will check when I get home
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Post by Guest Tue Nov 10, 2015 12:53 pm

.4" here and doesn't look like much more coming. Areas in central southern and coastal Jersey got anywhere from 1" to almost 3"

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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 10, 2015 1:19 pm

Only .11 for me.  it's been raining since about 7 a.m. but very very light. It looks like the GFS and Euro we're right with this one. Nam sref and rgem all had me for an inch or more. If this was in the middle of the winter and snow everyone north and west of the city would be screaming this morning
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Nov 10, 2015 1:34 pm

Over achiever for sure hoping that continues into djf
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