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2015-2016 Winter Outlook

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Dunnzoo
snow247
nutleyblizzard
HectorO
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 02, 2015 8:17 am

Good Morning everyone - Happy Monday! It is a happy Monday if you are one of the many people who enjoy reading about how the upcoming winter might play out. The link will take to you to my blog which is where my outlook is posted. I hope you take the time to read, process the information, and ask questions. If you rather ignore all the high level stuff then feel free to skip to the bottom where the official winter forecast is located.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/10/nj-strong-weather-2015-2016-winter.html


2015-2016 Winter Outlook 2015_2016_national_winter_outlook

Thank you for being a member of NJ Strong Weather forum and I look forward to being a positive contributor this winter. The goal is for people to have 100% awareness of possible winter storms WELL in advance and to have the best resources possible to prepare for winter events.

Best,

Francesco a.k.a Frank Paparatto

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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:01 am

Well done Frank. And thanks again for the time and effort.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:56 am

Great job Frank. Easily understood. Very in depth. Thorough. I'm proud of you. Very Happy Very Happy

Back loaded winter with many coastals sounds good to me. Looks like a coastal plain mix battleground with N and W cashing in big time. Good year for the ski resorts while sroc4 and I sweat it out and nowcast.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:42 am

Magnificent, Frank and an example of what JB posted as to the incredible talents of the amateur Mets out on the web.

Syo will be watching that r/s line just like me and CP watched the cutoff lines the last few winters (Juno).

Hint to Jimmy.... it sucks big time!!!!!!!!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:25 am

Thank you fellas!

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:43 am

Seeing the map made me giddy lol. I read your writeup or most of it. Although u mention more coastal I see u are think about 20 to 30 inches less snow total than last year so overall u think big hitters but overall less snow? Great intelligent writeup. Can't wait to see how it verifies go be a while though sounds like. Am I go b far enough north of NYC to be north of those battlegrounds or as usual I'll b now casting that rs line?
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:20 pm

Frank,

Great informative and easy to read and understand write up. You make us all proud and thank you fro all the time and effort (umpteen hours) you put into this. Great job as always.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:07 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Seeing the map made me giddy lol. I read your writeup or most of it. Although u mention more coastal I see u are think about 20 to 30 inches less snow total than last year so overall u think big hitters but overall less snow? Great intelligent writeup. Can't wait to see how it verifies go be a while though sounds like. Am I go b far enough north of NYC to be north of those battlegrounds or as usual I'll b now casting that rs line?

Everyone in the red is likely to battle R/S line this year at some point.

@amugs wrote:Frank,

Great informative and easy to read and understand write up. You make us all proud and thank you fro all the time and effort (umpteen hours) you put into this. Great job as always.

Thank you Mugs, very kind words.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:31 pm

Nice Frank!!!

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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:56 pm

frank great analysis and write up as always. looking forward to this winter. lots of big possibilities. not willing to throw the towel in on dec yet despite most models showing it to be warm. question. how soon can the AO tank with the the snow growth over siberia being so favorable? can it happen in early dec or is it later in jan and feb? the AO and EPO are going to be critical for this winter IMO. if they can supply the cold than oh boy we will have some fun this year.
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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:05 pm

even though pattern not favorable for EC storms ATM look at how close we are to some big storms now.
2015-2016 Winter Outlook Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24
2015-2016 Winter Outlook Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_1
can't wait to get into a favorable position at 500mb!
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Post by Grselig Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:11 pm

Thanks Frank!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:51 pm

@algae888 wrote:frank great analysis and write up as always. looking forward to this winter. lots of big possibilities. not willing to throw the towel in on dec yet despite most models showing it to be warm. question. how soon can the AO tank with the the snow growth over siberia being so favorable? can it happen in early dec or is it later in jan and feb? the AO and EPO are going to be critical for this winter IMO. if they can supply the cold than oh boy we will have some fun this year.

Algae, look at the snowcover timeline map I posted in the long range thread. Should answer some of these questions.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:52 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Nice Frank!!!

@Grselig wrote:Thanks Frank!

Very welcome.

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Post by dkodgis Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:56 pm

I liked it but I especially liked a "Tale of Two Winters"
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Post by Radz Mon Nov 02, 2015 6:05 pm

What an awesome job Frank! Amazing read! Saw that Joe Cioffi shared it as well Smile
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Post by billg315 Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:09 pm

Great job Frank. Interesting read, detailed analysis and I have a feeling you're going to proven to be on target with this.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:29 pm

@dkodgis wrote:I liked it but I especially liked a "Tale of Two Winters"

That part of the country is going to think "oh what a great winter." Then by mid January or so they're going to be like "oh fanculo, we spoke too soon."

@Radz wrote:What an awesome job Frank! Amazing read! Saw that Joe Cioffi shared it as well Smile

Yes, Joe is a great guy who is super passionate and enthusiastic about the weather. Those are the best type of Meteorologist's.

@billg315 wrote:Great job Frank. Interesting read, detailed analysis and I have a feeling you're going to proven to be on target with this.

Thank you, and I look forward to meeting you at the G2G.

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Post by jimv45 Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:40 pm

Great read always fun and educating reading your posts Frank great job!!!

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Post by HectorO Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:56 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Good Morning everyone - Happy Monday! It is a happy Monday if you are one of the many people who enjoy reading about how the upcoming winter might play out. The link will take to you to my blog which is where my outlook is posted. I hope you take the time to read, process the information, and ask questions. If you rather ignore all the high level stuff then feel free to skip to the bottom where the official winter forecast is located.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/10/nj-strong-weather-2015-2016-winter.html


2015-2016 Winter Outlook 2015_2016_national_winter_outlook

Thank you for being a member of NJ Strong Weather forum and I look forward to being a positive contributor this winter. The goal is for people to have 100% awareness of possible winter storms WELL in advance and to have the best resources possible to prepare for winter events.

Best,

Francesco a.k.a Frank Paparatto

Frank, last year did you have a similar outlook? I remember two years ago we had a brutally cold winter. Most mets and some amateur mets thought there was no way on earth it would be even colder the next year and last winter was actually was worse.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Nov 02, 2015 8:04 pm

Good read Frank. Good luck with your forecast. Hope the pattern change occurs quicker then expected so we salvage most of December. I do strongly agree about February. It's going to be a very active month.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 02, 2015 8:39 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Great read always fun and educating reading your posts Frank great job!!!

Thank you Jim!

@HectorO wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Good Morning everyone - Happy Monday! It is a happy Monday if you are one of the many people who enjoy reading about how the upcoming winter might play out. The link will take to you to my blog which is where my outlook is posted. I hope you take the time to read, process the information, and ask questions. If you rather ignore all the high level stuff then feel free to skip to the bottom where the official winter forecast is located.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/10/nj-strong-weather-2015-2016-winter.html


2015-2016 Winter Outlook 2015_2016_national_winter_outlook

Thank you for being a member of NJ Strong Weather forum and I look forward to being a positive contributor this winter. The goal is for people to have 100% awareness of possible winter storms WELL in advance and to have the best resources possible to prepare for winter events.

Best,

Francesco a.k.a Frank Paparatto

Frank, last year did you have a similar outlook? I remember two years ago we had a brutally cold winter. Most mets and some amateur mets thought there was no way on earth it would be even colder the next year and last winter was actually was worse.

Hi Mike, almost but not quite. Last season I had cold all the way through with big storm. I remember 2 big storms, but it was mainly northern stream events so that part of the outlook didn't work out. This season it's start warm, end cold with big storms possible at any time. Last season I don't think the El Nino was quite established enough. We also had an anomalous negative QBO which impeded a -AO and -NAO.

Here was my 2014-2015 Outlook.

2015-2016 Winter Outlook 2015_winter_forecast

2015-2016 Winter Outlook Temp_departs

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Good read Frank. Good luck with your forecast. Hope the pattern change occurs quicker then expected so we salvage most of December. I do strongly agree about February. It's going to be a very active month.

Thanks! The chance for a white Christmas is not as low as some may think.

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Post by snow247 Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:26 pm

Very good job with the outlook Frank Very Happy


Last edited by snow247 on Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:47 pm

Excellent Frank! Sorry I've been MIA, but now that baseball is done, I can get back to weather! It has been a crazy few weeks for us Mets fans!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:57 pm

@snow247 wrote:Very good job with the outlook Frank Very Happy

Thank you snow!

@Dunnzoo wrote:Excellent Frank! Sorry I've been MIA, but now that baseball is done, I can get back to weather! It has been a crazy few weeks for us Mets fans!

Janet, I'm sorry for your loss (Mets). Someone brought up a good point at work. Last year the Royals were a generally new and young group and made it to the WS. This year they strengthened that core and took it all the way this year. Mets could be that club next year. Never know. And thank you!

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