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2015-2016 Winter Outlook

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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:24 am

Hey Frank.  Can you post me the link to this image you used in your write up related to the running 30 and 90 day SOI means?

2015-2016 Winter Outlook - Page 2 Soi_trend


Last edited by sroc4 on Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:18 am; edited 1 time in total

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:15 am

Very good outlook Frank. I look forward to talking more about it during the meet up.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:28 am

@sroc4 wrote:Hey Frank.  Can you post me the link to this image you used in your write up related to the running 30 and 90 day SOI means?

2015-2016 Winter Outlook - Page 2 Soi_trend

SOI is now up to -17.85...substantial increase

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:29 am

@aiannone wrote:Very good outlook Frank. I look forward to talking more about it during the meet up.

Thanks Alex, see you there!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:28 pm

Great write up Frank easy to understand.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:39 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Hey Frank.  Can you post me the link to this image you used in your write up related to the running 30 and 90 day SOI means?

2015-2016 Winter Outlook - Page 2 Soi_trend

SOI is now up to -17.85...substantial increase

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Thanks Frank. Perfect!

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 06, 2015 2:14 pm

So Frank, you say storms galore, which to me means ALOT, yet your snow totals are very low compared to last year (nearly half) so are you saying that most of the area will see lots of wind driven rain storms instead of snow and the possibility of a few big hitters that will make our whole season? I noted LR GFS is putting out some huge storms, I know to take it with a grain of salt but they all include snow just west of I-95 which is good to see even if it isn't true.
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Post by Quietace Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:17 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So Frank, you say storms galore, which to me means ALOT, yet your snow totals are very low compared to last year (nearly half) so are you saying that most of the area will see lots of wind driven rain storms instead of snow and the possibility of a few big hitters that will make our whole season?  I noted LR GFS is putting out some huge storms, I know to take it with a grain of salt but they all include snow just west of I-95 which is good to see even if it isn't true.
Amplified Pattern with strong STJ and lack of early season blocking means strong storm systems that take place often. Yet they are ones that take the form of cutters, system that hug the coast and some offshore coastal systems, but ones with no cold air source. Often, a strong STJ also means a stronger influence of warm airmass entrained in the systems, and less cooling of the SST offshore. R/S line will be a fight as winter progresses with the coast losing often. Thats why ACY averages near 20" of snow; previous winters are just anomalies to long term climo of the region.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:27 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:So Frank, you say storms galore, which to me means ALOT, yet your snow totals are very low compared to last year (nearly half) so are you saying that most of the area will see lots of wind driven rain storms instead of snow and the possibility of a few big hitters that will make our whole season?  I noted LR GFS is putting out some huge storms, I know to take it with a grain of salt but they all include snow just west of I-95 which is good to see even if it isn't true.
Amplified Pattern with strong STJ and lack of early season blocking means strong storm systems that take place often. Yet they are ones that take the form of cutters, system that hug the coast and some offshore coastal systems,  but ones with no cold air source. Often, a strong STJ also means a stronger influence of warm airmass entrained in the systems, and less cooling of the SST offshore. R/S line will be a fight as winter progresses with the coast losing often. Thats why ACY averages near 20" of snow; previous winters are just anomalies to long term climo of the region.

We shall see Ace I still think I will be above in snowfall here if late Jan. And Feb. Pan out. Fingers crossed
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Post by Quietace Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:30 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:So Frank, you say storms galore, which to me means ALOT, yet your snow totals are very low compared to last year (nearly half) so are you saying that most of the area will see lots of wind driven rain storms instead of snow and the possibility of a few big hitters that will make our whole season?  I noted LR GFS is putting out some huge storms, I know to take it with a grain of salt but they all include snow just west of I-95 which is good to see even if it isn't true.
Amplified Pattern with strong STJ and lack of early season blocking means strong storm systems that take place often. Yet they are ones that take the form of cutters, system that hug the coast and some offshore coastal systems,  but ones with no cold air source. Often, a strong STJ also means a stronger influence of warm airmass entrained in the systems, and less cooling of the SST offshore. R/S line will be a fight as winter progresses with the coast losing often. Thats why ACY averages near 20" of snow; previous winters are just anomalies to long term climo of the region.

We shall see Ace I still think I will be above in snowfall here if late Jan. And Feb. Pan out. Fingers crossed
I doesn't mean you won't get your fair share of rainstorms. Getting greater than 20 inches of snow isn't too difficult when you have such a active pattern; especially once/if high attitude blocking develops later in the winter. Abundant moisture+high lat blocking is explosive especially with SST temps running high offshore.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:43 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:So Frank, you say storms galore, which to me means ALOT, yet your snow totals are very low compared to last year (nearly half) so are you saying that most of the area will see lots of wind driven rain storms instead of snow and the possibility of a few big hitters that will make our whole season?  I noted LR GFS is putting out some huge storms, I know to take it with a grain of salt but they all include snow just west of I-95 which is good to see even if it isn't true.
Amplified Pattern with strong STJ and lack of early season blocking means strong storm systems that take place often. Yet they are ones that take the form of cutters, system that hug the coast and some offshore coastal systems,  but ones with no cold air source. Often, a strong STJ also means a stronger influence of warm airmass entrained in the systems, and less cooling of the SST offshore. R/S line will be a fight as winter progresses with the coast losing often. Thats why ACY averages near 20" of snow; previous winters are just anomalies to long term climo of the region.

We shall see Ace I still think I will be above in snowfall here if late Jan. And Feb. Pan out. Fingers crossed
I doesn't mean you won't get your fair share of rainstorms. Getting greater than 20 inches of snow isn't too difficult when you have such a active pattern; especially once/if high attitude blocking develops later in the winter. Abundant moisture+high lat blocking is explosive especially with SST temps running high offshore.

Point taken Ace. Anyway just happy to see that an active pattern is probable and have lots to track either way
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:58 pm

Perfectly stated by Ryan. My work here is done.

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 06, 2015 5:16 pm

About time the Jersey Coast is toast or roasts,you guys have kicked but the past number of years. Time for the N w folk to cash in now, spread the wealth. HAHAHAHAHA geek king

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Post by Quietace Fri Nov 06, 2015 5:26 pm

@amugs wrote:About time the Jersey Coast is toast or roasts,you guys have kicked but the past number of years. Time for the N w folk to cash in now, spread the wealth. HAHAHAHAHA geek king
Seems like I strategically left at the right time. Snow capital of the world is now Plymouth Wink

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Post by docstox12 Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:05 pm

All supposition right now.....pattern was S and E the last five years for major snowstorms.I'll believe a throwback to the old normal of N and W when I see it!!!
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Post by dad4twoboys Fri Nov 06, 2015 9:01 pm

Great Stuff as always Frank and company.

And Hello Everyone !!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:26 am

@dad4twoboys wrote:Great Stuff as always Frank and company.

And Hello Everyone !!!

Thanks!!

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