Long Range Thread 9.0

[Dunnzoo]

If no one has answered yet, what's the weather going to be like on thanksgiving? Given our current trend of cold weekends and warm weekdays, could we be seeing high 60s next week?

No 60's, it is going to be cold, looks like we will be in the 40's, colder north of the city. Going to have to keep watching since it is a big travel week....could be some issues for travelers...

[algae888]

Scott thanks for the write-up the 12z CMC Dug that short wave a little further south but kind of dissipates it when it gets over our area GFS still has it missing us for the most part

[algae888]

Scott I was looking at the 6z gfs the 12z looks better. Still got a ways to go with this one GFS also has some snow on Tuesday from an inverted trough

[Frank_Wx]

Thanksgiving is going to be mild. 50's and sunshine. Maybe even low 60's for bigger cities.

[amugs]

The convection is setting up in a good spot as I mentioned yesterday. We want the most convection yo set up from about 150W and to 180 W (the Dateline).  This is very important for our winter and it is looking good to great so far. We want this to carry through until late March

[aiannone]

New JMA for D-J-F. Colder than normal temps in our neck of the woods.

[algae888]

Thanksgiving is going to be mild. 50's and sunshine. Maybe even low 60's for bigger cities.

Frank I think Thanksgiving is going to be colder than that as per the latest 12z euro a 1045 mb High over maine and the 850 0 degreesCelsius line will be in Virginia. Plus the EPO will definitely be negative at that time

[Dunnzoo]

Thanksgiving is going to be mild. 50's and sunshine. Maybe even low 60's for bigger cities.

Frank I think Thanksgiving is going to be colder than that as per the latest 12z euro a 1045 mb High over maine and the 850 0 degreesCelsius line will be in Virginia. Plus the EPO will definitely be negative at that time

I was trying to decipher the models after Frank's post, since what I saw looked like it was trending cold. One site did say the cold from earlier in the week may take some time to moderate... still over a week away.... I like a cold Turkey day, can't stand it when it's warm and I have the oven on all day!

[sroc4]

Thanksgiving is going to be mild. 50's and sunshine. Maybe even low 60's for bigger cities.

Frank I think Thanksgiving is going to be colder than that as per the latest 12z euro a 1045 mb High over maine and the 850 0 degreesCelsius line will be in Virginia. Plus the EPO will definitely be negative at that time

With models trending the way they have I would have to lean towards a cooler soln then say 60's but I wouldn't discount it either. There should be a rebound of the SW flow after the 23-25th time frame but timing is everything.

[aiannone]

Next Tuesday on the 12z GFS

[algae888]

The first half of next week definitely looks cold. after that there seems to be a little bit of a rebound in temperatures but what I'm hearing is that the Aleutian low may start to take shape and the EPO looks like it wants to stay negative. there's a big spread in the ensambles so we just have to wait and see. The new CFS weeklies now show the first week of December colder than what is showed before.a warm wall to wall December looks to be in jeopardy which is typical in El Nino winters

[algae888]

Just took a look at the euros 10 day Ensemble mean and the one thing that sticks out is that the Southeast ridge is gone. Also the Aleutian low looks to be taking shape with ridging in Alaska. With the PNA looking to go positive around that time the beginning of December could be very interesting

[Dunnzoo]

Next Tuesday on the 12z GFS

AAAAAHHHHHHH South and east!

[sroc4]

Next Tuesday on the 12z GFS

Inverted trough going to give LI 3-5" of snow next Tuesday.  I have a bridge to sell as well.  I guess nothing is impossible.  

[chief7]

JMA winter outlook http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

[Snow88]

Watch December be cold and wintry lol

[nutleyblizzard]

Watch December be cold and wintry lol

In order for that to happen we would need the Nino to peak sooner rather than later along with a dominate -AO. Its certainly possible, but I think December will be more of a transitional month with some moderate thread the needle events possible. January and beyond is when all hell breaks loose. Just my take on it.

[skinsfan1177]

Watch December be cold and wintry lol

In order for that to happen we would need the Nino to peak sooner rather than later along with a dominate -AO. Its certainly possible, but I think December will be more of a transitional month with some moderate thread the needle events possible. January and beyond is when all hell breaks loose. Just my take on it.

I agree I think most of December will be a transition month but I think towards the end of month and beginning we get going instead of late January

[algae888]

the epo and pna heading into favorable positions towards dec. looks like early dec could produce for our area. these two indicators are what drove our winters the last few years.

[amugs]

the epo and pna heading into favorable positions towards dec. looks like early dec could produce for our area. these two indicators are what drove our winters the last few years.

Cohen wrote in his weekly blurb about the -EPO and how it is elongated our PV which is did last year as well - interesting.



Figure 7. Forecasted average 10 mb geopotential heights (dam; contours) and geopotential height anomalies (m; shading) across the Northern Hemisphere from 26–30 November 2015. The forecast is from the 00z 15 November 2015 GFS ensemble.

The polar cap geopotential height anomaly plot continues to show a strong polar vortex into the foreseeable future (not shown). However some slight increase in wave activity flux in week two is predicted to perturb the stratospheric polar vortex so that it becomes less circular and more elongated (Figure 7). The counter clockwise flow around the polar vortex would help transport cold air from Siberia and drive it into North America east of the Rockies. This pattern is reminiscent of the dominant winter pattern of the past two winters that resulted in extremely cold winters in the eastern United States. The possibility of transport of cold air from Siberia into the Central and Eastern United States is something to watch as we officially begin winter. However we do not anticipate this to necessarily be the dominant winter pattern as we expect further disturbing of the polar vortex and longer term implications as we discuss in the next section. Good news?


And looky see - looks nice even if it transient I do not care - trop forcing by the dateline starting flex its forearms here/OLR's showed this as I posted the last few days - DL Forcing doing some work for us as we head into met winter?/ JB thinks so as does Joe D. Models will be all over the place in this transition but at the end of the GFS there is a LP over the Bayou Gulf area - where will it go? Won't be there come 48 hours let alone 300 hours BUT if the ens patterns are right MAYBE we have something.

[amugs]

DAM MJO!!!!!!!! It is stuck in phase 2 and 3 - why is this not good? the Indian Ocean is sealing off this convection from what I have read - kind of absorbing the convection that is building out near the date line in these phases. Need to boot this and this is also an unprecedented aspect to this Nino with this active MJO.

[skinsfan1177]

DAM MJO!!!!!!!! It is stuck in phase 2 and 3 - why is this not good? the Indian Ocean is sealing off this convection from what I have read - kind of absorbing the convection that is building out near the date line in these phases. Need to boot this and this is also an unprecedented aspect to this Nino with this active MJO.

 
What your saying is it needs to move to what phase and currently it's no good?

[amugs]

DAM MJO!!!!!!!! It is stuck in phase 2 and 3 - why is this not good? the Indian Ocean is sealing off this convection from what I have read - kind of absorbing the convection that is building out near the date line in these phases. Need to boot this and this is also an unprecedented aspect to this Nino with this active MJO.

 
What your saying is it needs to move to what phase and currently it's no good?

It either needs to die off or move around to death com (phase) 1 or 8 or even 7. I am not sure what affects this will have as move forward but from reading up on this it is not helping things by dampening the forcing out near the dateline. Teh forcing is strong so it wil eventually override this BUT who knows what can happen - unprecedented event overall. Hopefully it will wane as we move into Met winter. Maybe Rb can chime inhere since he did an unbelievable writ up on this modality - calling Rb? Rb where are yee??

[skinsfan1177]

DAM MJO!!!!!!!! It is stuck in phase 2 and 3 - why is this not good? the Indian Ocean is sealing off this convection from what I have read - kind of absorbing the convection that is building out near the date line in these phases. Need to boot this and this is also an unprecedented aspect to this Nino with this active MJO.

 
What your saying is it needs to move to what phase and currently it's no good?

It either needs to die off or move around to death com (phase) 1 or 8 or even 7. I am not sure what affects this will have as move forward but from reading up on this it is not helping things by dampening the forcing out near the dateline. Teh forcing is strong so it wil eventually override this BUT who knows what can happen - unprecedented event overall. Hopefully it will wane as we move into Met winter. Maybe Rb can chime inhere since he did an unbelievable writ up on this modality - calling Rb? Rb where are yee??

Thanks mugs I always remember hearing phase 8,1,2 where best for us.

[algae888]

Mugs what I'm hearing about the tropical pacific forcing is that it's not concentrated in one area but in several different areas throughout the whole basin. When we look at previous El Ninos like 1997 or 2009 they were more specific and concentrated areas of convection East in1997 and West in 2009. This year seems to be a whole different ballgame and most people including Mets have no idea how this is going to play out. With that said I think the more important aspect of this winter will be the AO and other telecommunications. This year is such a unique event a very strong basin wide El Nino with no real good analogs to look back on.

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