NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 9.0

+35
snowlover 12345
Snowfall
hyde345
Mathgod55
Dtone
weatherwatchermom
WOLVES1
elkiehound
devsman
Radz
Abba701
dkodgis
Quietace
Vinnydula
CPcantmeasuresnow
billg315
snow247
Math23x7
RJB8525
docstox12
jmanley32
HectorO
31MBP
NjWeatherGuy
rb924119
skinsfan1177
nutleyblizzard
Snow88
chief7
sroc4
aiannone
amugs
Frank_Wx
algae888
Dunnzoo
39 posters

Page 1 of 40 1, 2, 3 ... 20 ... 40  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 17, 2015 11:50 am

@HectorO wrote:If no one has answered yet, what's the weather going to be like on thanksgiving? Given our current trend of cold weekends and warm weekdays, could we be seeing high 60s next week?

No 60's, it is going to be cold, looks like we will be in the 40's, colder north of the city. Going to have to keep watching since it is a big travel week....could be some issues for travelers...

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4404
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by algae888 Tue Nov 17, 2015 12:16 pm

Scott thanks for the write-up the 12z CMC Dug that short wave a little further south but kind of dissipates it when it gets over our area GFS still has it missing us for the most part
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by algae888 Tue Nov 17, 2015 1:09 pm

Scott I was looking at the 6z gfs the 12z looks better. Still got a ways to go with this one GFS also has some snow on Tuesday from an inverted trough
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 17, 2015 1:17 pm

Thanksgiving is going to be mild. 50's and sunshine. Maybe even low 60's for bigger cities.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 17, 2015 1:50 pm

The convection is setting up in a good spot as I mentioned yesterday. We want the most convection yo set up from about 150W and to 180 W (the Dateline).  This is very important for our winter and it is looking good to great so far. We want this to carry through until late March

Long Range Thread 9.0 23jlto3

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by aiannone Tue Nov 17, 2015 1:59 pm

New JMA for D-J-F. Colder than normal temps in our neck of the woods.
Long Range Thread 9.0 Cub3kz10
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4267
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by algae888 Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:10 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Thanksgiving is going to be mild. 50's and sunshine. Maybe even low 60's for bigger cities.
Frank I think Thanksgiving is going to be colder than that as per the latest 12z euro a 1045 mb High over maine and the 850 0 degreesCelsius line will be in Virginia. Plus the EPO will definitely be negative at that time
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:17 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Thanksgiving is going to be mild. 50's and sunshine. Maybe even low 60's for bigger cities.
Frank I think Thanksgiving is going to be colder than that as per the latest 12z euro a 1045 mb High over maine and the 850 0 degreesCelsius line will be in Virginia. Plus the EPO will definitely be negative at that time

I was trying to decipher the models after Frank's post, since what I saw looked like it was trending cold. One site did say the cold from earlier in the week may take some time to moderate... still over a week away.... I like a cold Turkey day, can't stand it when it's warm and I have the oven on all day!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4404
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:20 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Thanksgiving is going to be mild. 50's and sunshine. Maybe even low 60's for bigger cities.
Frank I think Thanksgiving is going to be colder than that as per the latest 12z euro a 1045 mb High over maine and the 850 0 degreesCelsius line will be in Virginia. Plus the EPO will definitely be negative at that time

With models trending the way they have I would have to lean towards a cooler soln then say 60's but I wouldn't discount it either. There should be a rebound of the SW flow after the 23-25th time frame but timing is everything.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6973
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by aiannone Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:25 pm

Next Tuesday on the 12z GFS Smile
Long Range Thread 9.0 Gfs_ms10
Long Range Thread 9.0 12249910
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4267
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by algae888 Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:33 pm

The first half of next week definitely looks cold. after that there seems to be a little bit of a rebound in temperatures but what I'm hearing is that the Aleutian low may start to take shape and the EPO looks like it wants to stay negative. there's a big spread in the ensambles so we just have to wait and see. The new CFS weeklies now show the first week of December colder than what is showed before.a warm wall to wall December looks to be in jeopardy which is typical in El Nino winters
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by algae888 Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:46 pm

Just took a look at the euros 10 day Ensemble mean and the one thing that sticks out is that the Southeast ridge is gone. Also the Aleutian low looks to be taking shape with ridging in Alaska. With the PNA looking to go positive around that time the beginning of December could be very interesting
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:21 pm

@aiannone wrote:Next Tuesday on the 12z GFS Smile
Long Range Thread 9.0 Gfs_ms10
Long Range Thread 9.0 12249910



AAAAAHHHHHHH South and east!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4404
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:05 pm

@aiannone wrote:Next Tuesday on the 12z GFS Smile
Long Range Thread 9.0 Gfs_ms10
Long Range Thread 9.0 12249910

Inverted trough going to give LI 3-5" of snow next Tuesday.  I have a bridge to sell as well.  I guess nothing is impossible.  geek

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6973
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by chief7 Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:05 pm

JMA winter outlook http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

chief7

Posts : 116
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-11-10
Location : Langhorne pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Snow88 Tue Nov 17, 2015 9:58 pm

Watch December be cold and wintry lol
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 33
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Nov 18, 2015 6:06 am

@Snow88 wrote:Watch December be cold and wintry lol
In order for that to happen we would need the Nino to peak sooner rather than later along with a dominate -AO. Its certainly possible, but I think December will be more of a transitional month with some moderate thread the needle events possible. January and beyond is when all hell breaks loose. Just my take on it.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1732
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 55
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Nov 18, 2015 6:08 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Watch December be cold and wintry lol
In order for that to happen we would need the Nino to peak sooner rather than later along with a dominate -AO. Its certainly possible, but I think December will be more of a transitional month with some moderate thread the needle events possible. January and beyond is when all hell breaks loose. Just my take on it.

I agree I think most of December will be a transition month but I think towards the end of month and beginning we get going instead of late January
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by algae888 Wed Nov 18, 2015 8:49 am

the epo and pna heading into favorable positions towards dec. looks like early dec could produce for our area. these two indicators are what drove our winters the last few years.
Long Range Thread 9.0 4panel
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:13 am

@algae888 wrote:the epo and pna heading into favorable positions towards dec. looks like early dec could produce for our area. these two indicators are what drove our winters the last few years.
Long Range Thread 9.0 4panel

Cohen wrote in his weekly blurb about the -EPO and how it is elongated our PV which is did last year as well - interesting.

Long Range Thread 9.0 Image.jpg.db549d6f2c7a57f247fcf8f6f7356643

Figure 7. Forecasted average 10 mb geopotential heights (dam; contours) and geopotential height anomalies (m; shading) across the Northern Hemisphere from 26–30 November 2015. The forecast is from the 00z 15 November 2015 GFS ensemble.

The polar cap geopotential height anomaly plot continues to show a strong polar vortex into the foreseeable future (not shown). However some slight increase in wave activity flux in week two is predicted to perturb the stratospheric polar vortex so that it becomes less circular and more elongated (Figure 7). The counter clockwise flow around the polar vortex would help transport cold air from Siberia and drive it into North America east of the Rockies. This pattern is reminiscent of the dominant winter pattern of the past two winters that resulted in extremely cold winters in the eastern United States. The possibility of transport of cold air from Siberia into the Central and Eastern United States is something to watch as we officially begin winter. However we do not anticipate this to necessarily be the dominant winter pattern as we expect further disturbing of the polar vortex and longer term implications as we discuss in the next section. Good news?


And looky see - looks nice even if it transient I do not care - trop forcing by the dateline starting flex its forearms here/OLR's showed this as I posted the last few days - DL Forcing doing some work for us as we head into met winter?/ JB thinks so as does Joe D. Models will be all over the place in this transition but at the end of the GFS there is a LP over the Bayou Gulf area - where will it go? Won't be there come 48 hours let alone 300 hours BUT if the ens patterns are right MAYBE we have something.

Long Range Thread 9.0 564c73f27c8ba_11-18-20157-49-20AM.thumb.png.7e362b2dfc219790b1eb451e203ed6d5

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Wed Nov 18, 2015 12:38 pm

DAM MJO!!!!!!!! It is stuck in phase 2 and 3 - why is this not good? the Indian Ocean is sealing off this convection from what I have read - kind of absorbing the convection that is building out near the date line in these phases. Need to boot this and this is also an unprecedented aspect to this Nino with this active MJO.

Long Range Thread 9.0 Post-564-0-23040100-1447865987

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Nov 18, 2015 1:09 pm

@amugs wrote:DAM MJO!!!!!!!! It is stuck in phase 2 and 3 - why is this not good? the Indian Ocean is sealing off this convection from what I have read - kind of absorbing the convection that is building out near the date line in these phases. Need to boot this and this is also an unprecedented aspect to this Nino with this active MJO.

Long Range Thread 9.0 Post-564-0-23040100-1447865987
 
What your saying is it needs to move to what phase and currently it's no good?
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Wed Nov 18, 2015 1:26 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:DAM MJO!!!!!!!! It is stuck in phase 2 and 3 - why is this not good? the Indian Ocean is sealing off this convection from what I have read - kind of absorbing the convection that is building out near the date line in these phases. Need to boot this and this is also an unprecedented aspect to this Nino with this active MJO.

Long Range Thread 9.0 Post-564-0-23040100-1447865987
 
What your saying is it needs to move to what phase and currently it's no good?

It either needs to die off or move around to death com (phase) 1 or 8 or even 7. I am not sure what affects this will have as move forward but from reading up on this it is not helping things by dampening the forcing out near the dateline. Teh forcing is strong so it wil eventually override this BUT who knows what can happen - unprecedented event overall. Hopefully it will wane as we move into Met winter. Maybe Rb can chime inhere since he did an unbelievable writ up on this modality - calling Rb? Rb where are yee??

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Nov 18, 2015 1:36 pm

@amugs wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:DAM MJO!!!!!!!! It is stuck in phase 2 and 3 - why is this not good? the Indian Ocean is sealing off this convection from what I have read - kind of absorbing the convection that is building out near the date line in these phases. Need to boot this and this is also an unprecedented aspect to this Nino with this active MJO.

Long Range Thread 9.0 Post-564-0-23040100-1447865987
 
What your saying is it needs to move to what phase and currently it's no good?

It either needs to die off or move around to death com (phase) 1 or 8 or even 7. I am not sure what affects this will have as move forward but from reading up on this it is not helping things by dampening the forcing out near the dateline. Teh forcing is strong so it wil eventually override this BUT who knows what can happen - unprecedented event overall. Hopefully it will wane as we move into Met winter. Maybe Rb can chime inhere since he did an unbelievable writ up on this modality - calling Rb? Rb where are yee??

Thanks mugs I always remember hearing phase 8,1,2 where best for us.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by algae888 Wed Nov 18, 2015 1:40 pm

Mugs what I'm hearing about the tropical pacific forcing is that it's not concentrated in one area but in several different areas throughout the whole basin. When we look at previous El Ninos like 1997 or 2009 they were more specific and concentrated areas of convection East in1997 and West in 2009. This year seems to be a whole different ballgame and most people including Mets have no idea how this is going to play out. With that said I think the more important aspect of this winter will be the AO and other telecommunications. This year is such a unique event a very strong basin wide El Nino with no real good analogs to look back on.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 40 1, 2, 3 ... 20 ... 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum