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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:35 pm

Yea, it's not looking too great for wintry weather just yet for our area. The December 5th system still intrigues me because some guidance deepens the low enough to bring dynamic cooling all the way to the coaat. If it's timed with the PNA spike in the west you never know.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 November_24_2015_80039_PM_EST

Here's the 12z EPS valid December 2nd. At this time, a primary low is cutting to our west to bring us decent rainfall. Temps will scale back once the trough comes in but there's not much cold air associated with it. It's worth mentioning it's not a given the storm around the 1st cuts. If the ridge overtop, kind of pseudo Rex Block like, pushes down south and east it could force a secondary to pop off the coast. The closed off vort and +NAO may make that difficult which is why I'm leaning toward a storm cutting.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 November_24_2015_80424_PM_EST

Here we are December 5th. Notice how as the initial ridge (the one talked about with the Dec 1st storm) weakens, another ridge spike appears in western Canada thanks to the anomalous low heights over the Aleutians. A retrograde look. Anyway, this ridge spike is important for the purpose of the December 5th storm. A properly timed spike will allow northern stream energy to phase with the STJ energy in the south which would lead to a potent surface low developing. As the northern stream energy digs south and east, it will bring with it SOME cold air. It's not exactly an Arctic airmass. More on the marginal side. That said, a strong enough storm will force dynamics to play a role in bringing cold air all the way to the coast. It depends on the exact placement of the surface low and the timing of the northern stream energy / second ridge spike.

My initial thoughts are there will be a storm to track. Too tough to say the precip types right now. With the state of our NAO/AO and marginal cold airmass, I have to believe there's a better chance for rain along the coast than snow. BUT WE'LL SEE.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 November_24_2015_80641_PM_EST

This is looking way out into the future - December 9th - but the pattern looks typical to what you'll see in strong El Ninos during December. Low heights overtaking west coast and western Canada while the Canadian ridge pushes into eastern Canada. Still, this is not an overly warm look for the eastern CONUS. Mainly average with some warmer than normal mixed in. If the low heights in the west continue propagating east then warmer temps will impede the northeast. We'll worry about that later.





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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:16 pm

Nice write up Frank. I can't argue with any of it.

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:26 pm

One thing to keep in mind is that a cold month does not necessarily mean a snowy month.  Similarly, a warm month does not necessarily mean a snowless month.  Take two Decembers back to back: 1989 and 1990.  December 1989 was the third coldest December on record for NYC with a mean temperature of 25.9*, yet it only saw 1.4" of snow that entire month.  December 1990 currently stands as the 7th warmest December on record with a mean temperature of 42.6* (it was the 3rd warmest at the time before being surpassed by 1998, 2001, 2006, and 2011).  Yet, in late December, a cold snap came in and from the 27th-28th, NYC had 7.2" of snow.  I was just a few months old then so I don't remember it.

Of course, I could do without snow the last weekend of December as I am set to be in Puerto Rico from December 27th to January 1st.  Wouldn't want to be at JFK airport for an extended period of time dealing with delays/cancellations.....

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 25, 2015 7:08 am

@Math23x7 wrote:

....Of course, I could do without snow the last weekend of December as I am set to be in Puerto Rico from December 27th to January 1st.  Wouldn't want to be at JFK airport for an extended period of time dealing with delays/cancellations.....

Aww come on Mikey. Take one for the team. geek

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 25, 2015 7:51 am

@Math23x7 wrote:One thing to keep in mind is that a cold month does not necessarily mean a snowy month.  Similarly, a warm month does not necessarily mean a snowless month.  Take two Decembers back to back: 1989 and 1990.  December 1989 was the third coldest December on record for NYC with a mean temperature of 25.9*, yet it only saw 1.4" of snow that entire month.  December 1990 currently stands as the 7th warmest December on record with a mean temperature of 42.6* (it was the 3rd warmest at the time before being surpassed by 1998, 2001, 2006, and 2011).  Yet, in late December, a cold snap came in and from the 27th-28th, NYC had 7.2" of snow.  I was just a few months old then so I don't remember it.

Of course, I could do without snow the last weekend of December as I am set to be in Puerto Rico from December 27th to January 1st.  Wouldn't want to be at JFK airport for an extended period of time dealing with delays/cancellations.....

Epic Godzilla coming.

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Post by billg315 Wed Nov 25, 2015 8:04 am

Lol. I want to change my winter contest entry to include a Godzilla for when Mike is in PR . . Or at the airport. J/k :-)
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 25, 2015 9:51 am

PDO value came down from +1.97 in September to +1.47 in October. Will be interesting to see the November value. I am going to guess slightly higher than October. Also, good to see below normal SSTA's over the Aleutians last 30 days. This signifies the mean trough should remain over that region instead of Alaska in the coming winter months.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Capture.PNG.3f582adfd6ac0e531adc4871ff2b9297

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 25, 2015 9:59 am

All good discussion here guys and Mikey be a team member - so a few hours of pain will go a long way in the end - Boxer Day Deuce Incoming on the 27th for your sentiments!!!!!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:46 am

Woah, I have not been keeping up with the snow cover / extension across NA and Eurasia. Eurasian snow cover extent surpassed last season. The sharp increase in the month of November is substantial. If this continues, and there is a good chance it will, we could be on our way to setting a record. Seeing some wave 1 Stratospheric warming around western NH could be indicative that energy is successfully transferring from Troposphere to Stratosphere as a result of the impressive snow cover. As the Strat geeks have noted, we appear to be "on track" with regards to SSWE.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Capture.thumb.PNG.819a3802dc27fb7f3aed88e803f8b2fb

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:16 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Woah, I have not been keeping up with the snow cover / extension across NA and Eurasia. Eurasian snow cover extent surpassed last season. The sharp increase in the month of November is substantial. If this continues, and there is a good chance it will, we could be on our way to setting a record. Seeing some wave 1 Stratospheric warming around western NH could be indicative that energy is successfully transferring from Troposphere to Stratosphere as a result of the impressive snow cover. As the Strat geeks have noted, we appear to be "on track" with regards to SSWE.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Capture.thumb.PNG.819a3802dc27fb7f3aed88e803f8b2fb
That's impressive. It's a big signal for a -AO regime in the coming weeks ahead. I know last year's snow cover did not correspond with a -AO, but I think that was a fluke occurrence and I would be shocked if it were to happen two years in a row.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:19 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Woah, I have not been keeping up with the snow cover / extension across NA and Eurasia. Eurasian snow cover extent surpassed last season. The sharp increase in the month of November is substantial. If this continues, and there is a good chance it will, we could be on our way to setting a record. Seeing some wave 1 Stratospheric warming around western NH could be indicative that energy is successfully transferring from Troposphere to Stratosphere as a result of the impressive snow cover. As the Strat geeks have noted, we appear to be "on track" with regards to SSWE.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Capture.thumb.PNG.819a3802dc27fb7f3aed88e803f8b2fb
That's impressive. It's a big signal for a -AO regime in the coming weeks ahead. I know last year's snow cover did not correspond with a -AO, but I think that was a fluke occurrence and I would be shocked if it were to happen two years in a row.

Well, not really a fluke. Its been widely speculated the anomalously negative QBO resulting in an extremely fast Strat jet affected the warming and conversely our AO.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:32 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Woah, I have not been keeping up with the snow cover / extension across NA and Eurasia. Eurasian snow cover extent surpassed last season. The sharp increase in the month of November is substantial. If this continues, and there is a good chance it will, we could be on our way to setting a record. Seeing some wave 1 Stratospheric warming around western NH could be indicative that energy is successfully transferring from Troposphere to Stratosphere as a result of the impressive snow cover. As the Strat geeks have noted, we appear to be "on track" with regards to SSWE.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Capture.thumb.PNG.819a3802dc27fb7f3aed88e803f8b2fb

Frank remind me again how that heat transfer works?  The extensive eurasian snow cover leads to predominantly HP over the region right?  There tends to be wide scale reflective sun rays which leads to general/relative warming in the troposphere under the dome of HP.  That heat eventually radiates up into to the stratosphere warming it weakening the vortex of air in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the northern latitudes.  As the vortex weakens and the stratopshere warms the air molecules begin to expand.  Since they cannot expand out into space they push down on the air in the troposphere compressing that air making it more dense and colder, which also in turn aids in displacing the cold tropospheric arctic air masses into the southern latitudes.  Is this the basic concept?

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:38 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Woah, I have not been keeping up with the snow cover / extension across NA and Eurasia. Eurasian snow cover extent surpassed last season. The sharp increase in the month of November is substantial. If this continues, and there is a good chance it will, we could be on our way to setting a record. Seeing some wave 1 Stratospheric warming around western NH could be indicative that energy is successfully transferring from Troposphere to Stratosphere as a result of the impressive snow cover. As the Strat geeks have noted, we appear to be "on track" with regards to SSWE.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Capture.thumb.PNG.819a3802dc27fb7f3aed88e803f8b2fb

Frank remind me again how that heat transfer works?  The extensive eurasian snow cover leads to predominantly HP over the region right?  There tends to be wide scale reflective sun rays which leads to general/relative warming in the troposphere under the dome of HP.  That heat eventually radiates up into to the stratosphere warming it weakening the vortex of air in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the northern latitudes.  As the vortex weakens and the stratopshere warms the air molecules begin to expand.  Since they cannot expand out into space they push down on the air in the troposphere compressing that air making it more dense and colder, which also in turn aids in displacing the cold tropospheric arctic air masses into the southern latitudes.  Is this the basic concept?

100% accurate.

The most common terminology you will hear is latent heat transfer

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:41 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Woah, I have not been keeping up with the snow cover / extension across NA and Eurasia. Eurasian snow cover extent surpassed last season. The sharp increase in the month of November is substantial. If this continues, and there is a good chance it will, we could be on our way to setting a record. Seeing some wave 1 Stratospheric warming around western NH could be indicative that energy is successfully transferring from Troposphere to Stratosphere as a result of the impressive snow cover. As the Strat geeks have noted, we appear to be "on track" with regards to SSWE.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Capture.thumb.PNG.819a3802dc27fb7f3aed88e803f8b2fb
That's impressive. It's a big signal for a -AO regime in the coming weeks ahead. I know last year's snow cover did not correspond with a -AO, but I think that was a fluke occurrence and I would be shocked if it were to happen two years in a row.

Well, not really a fluke. Its been widely speculated the anomalously negative QBO resulting in an extremely fast Strat jet affected the warming and conversely our AO.
If the QBO was indeed the culprit last year, then it should not have any bearing on our -AO this year with it currently in a moderate strength positive phase.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:44 am

Speaking of possible warming in Eurasia and the Arctic...we're seeing positive H5 anomalies show up around December 5th.

Going from this

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Gfs_z500_sig_arctic_5

To this

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Gfs_z500_sig_arctic_33

That should help with the process.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:48 am

FWIW 12z GFS has big differences at H5 compared to prev runs.

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Nov 25, 2015 12:42 pm

So I guess this should be thread 9.0. PS thank you all for the kind comments regarding my travel concerns at the end of next month =P

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 25, 2015 12:49 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:So I guess this should be thread 9.0.  PS thank you all for the kind comments regarding my travel concerns at the end of next month =P

Nothing but love Mike..nothing but love.

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Nov 25, 2015 12:55 pm

9.math LOL

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:07 pm

told ya

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Post by snow247 Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:01 pm

Euro is very close to an interesting storm for many of us around December 5th.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:14 pm

@snow247 wrote:Euro is very close to an interesting storm for many of us around December 5th.

Really surface has nothing but a HP over the large part of eastern US. OIf course I guess I am not looking at other things but there is not even a low anywhere near.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 25, 2015 3:28 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@snow247 wrote:Euro is very close to an interesting storm for many of us around December 5th.

Really surface has nothing but a HP over the large part of eastern US.  OIf course I guess I am not looking at other things but there is not even a low anywhere near.

He's right JMan. When you look at 500mb you can see how close the northern energy(1) is to phasing with the southern energy(2). Timing is everything with a +NAO for a phased beast in the perfect position. I would like to see the ridge axis(black line) trend further west(blue line)

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Image12

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:00 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@snow247 wrote:Euro is very close to an interesting storm for many of us around December 5th.

Really surface has nothing but a HP over the large part of eastern US.  OIf course I guess I am not looking at other things but there is not even a low anywhere near.

He's right JMan. When you look at 500mb you can see how close the northern energy(1) is to phasing with the southern energy(2). Timing is everything with a +NAO for a phased beast in the perfect position. I would like to see the ridge axis(black line) trend further west(blue line)

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Image12

Yup, good illustration. I can see that ridge being problematic though. We'll see!

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:04 pm

Honestly right now I would be happy if we can get a few systems to lay down some nice snow pack up in Vt, NH, and Eastern Canada so that when the season progresses there is a cold air source for deepening LP to draw from.  Like this:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 E_cana10" />


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

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