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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Wed Nov 25, 2015 6:58 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Woah, I have not been keeping up with the snow cover / extension across NA and Eurasia. Eurasian snow cover extent surpassed last season. The sharp increase in the month of November is substantial. If this continues, and there is a good chance it will, we could be on our way to setting a record. Seeing some wave 1 Stratospheric warming around western NH could be indicative that energy is successfully transferring from Troposphere to Stratosphere as a result of the impressive snow cover. As the Strat geeks have noted, we appear to be "on track" with regards to SSWE.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Capture.thumb.PNG.819a3802dc27fb7f3aed88e803f8b2fb

Frank remind me again how that heat transfer works?  The extensive eurasian snow cover leads to predominantly HP over the region right?  There tends to be wide scale reflective sun rays which leads to general/relative warming in the troposphere under the dome of HP.  That heat eventually radiates up into to the stratosphere warming it weakening the vortex of air in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the northern latitudes.  As the vortex weakens and the stratopshere warms the air molecules begin to expand.  Since they cannot expand out into space they push down on the air in the troposphere compressing that air making it more dense and colder, which also in turn aids in displacing the cold tropospheric arctic air masses into the southern latitudes.  Is this the basic concept?

100% accurate.

The most common terminology you will hear is latent heat transfer[/quote

BOYS HERE IT IS THANKS TO ROCKY MY SNOW CHIA PET!!

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Ecmwf_tz10_nhemi2_41.thumb.png.1c2de6fe10e158a684730db1b8c59cae

There is the Eurasian, siberian snow reflectivity working it's magic. Lol at that over Siberia with the heat. IF this keeps it's course we see our AO going neg a bit sooner IF it persist and I am not seeing why it would not 10 days out as per gfs and euro over this area.
Also good snowpack incomingfor S Canadian area.
Still seeing east slight neg NAO on the east as I mentioned yesterday in a post around the 1 week if Dec .

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:20 am

I would watch this timeframe.


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_0z/tr12f204.php

May produce for someone in the area.
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Post by Snow88 Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:46 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I would watch this timeframe.


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_0z/tr12f204.php

May produce for someone in the area.

Delayed but not denied on the GFS and Euro
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:33 am

CFS 500mb forecast for weeks 3 and 4 of December. Some long range guidance is already showing this by week 2. Anyway, it's a classic El Nino look for December. Patience, young Skywalkers.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 H9Fu1aN

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:58 am

Cfs blows chow hahaha !!

For all u Snowlover timing maybe just to right fir this next Friday for N&W as per 6z GFS

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f201

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:03 pm

[quote="amugs"]Cfs blows chow hahaha !!

For all u Snowlover timing maybe just to right fir this next Friday for N&W as per 6z GFS

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f201[/quote

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f204

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:58 pm

@amugs wrote:
@amugs wrote:Cfs blows chow hahaha !!

For all u Snowlover timing maybe just to right fir this next Friday for N&W as per 6z GFS

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f201[/quote

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f204

Really trying to pull in the cold air, rain to wet snow NW of the city on this run, just a closer up view of what i posted last night right?
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:02 pm

Todays 12z run has a storm around the 9th-10th but again having a hard time tapping cold air despite good location and moderately strong low, timeframe should be watched but not counted on as the models do their LR waffling.
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Post by algae888 Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:16 pm

@amugs wrote:Cfs blows chow hahaha !!

For all u Snowlover timing maybe just to right fir this next Friday for N&W as per 6z GFS

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f201
12z gfs lost the storm but cmc has it.
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:28 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Cfs blows chow hahaha !!

For all u Snowlover timing maybe just to right fir this next Friday for N&W as per 6z GFS

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f201
12z gfs lost the storm but cmc has it.
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40

Read what I posted, pushed back to 9-10th on earlier 12z GFS, snow reserved for far interior only.
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 27, 2015 1:54 pm

The Stratospheric PV is incredibly strong and large right now. Negative 10mb temps extend all the way to the deep south of the U.S.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Gfsnh-10-6

While a Wave 1 warming event has been taking place over the western NH, it does not look like its displacing the PV anywhere just yet. Here is a look at 10mb temps / 10 hPa

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 N15_amsu_t10_nh_asc

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 N15_amsu_z10_nh_asc

GFS forecast appears to show the wave 1 event weaken by 2nd week of Dec or so.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Gfs_t10_nh_f216

In other words, looks like we still have a good deal to go before seeing a SSWE.

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by algae888 Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:17 pm

well if the 10day op euro is correct then even santa will not have snow as the 540 line will be in the north pole actually in Hudson bay so that if precip fell there it would be rain. as for this winter weather junkie it's time to hit the wagon and take some time away from op model runs. at least until dec 15th. some models are showing dec days as high as +20 temp departures. WOW 2 dec in a row down the drain. lets hope later on this winter will come through.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 27, 2015 4:23 pm

Some guidance, notably today's 12z EPS, not only have a very positive EPO but also take the PNA negative by the 2nd week of Dec. If true, this would really warm up temps over the eastern third of the country.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 27, 2015 4:38 pm

FWIW, a noticeable warming taking place over Nino regions 1+2

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1

I have a feeling this is attributed to the rising air just north of the area, shown by the negative Omega anomalies at H5.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Globe_7D

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 27, 2015 4:43 pm

Pretty strong easterlies look to take over eastern Nino regions this week. The warming we're seeing there is probably twmporary.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 U.anom.30.5S-5N

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Nov 27, 2015 4:44 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:FWIW, a noticeable warming taking place over Nino regions 1+2

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1

I have a feeling this is attributed to the rising air just north of the area, shown by the negative Omega anomalies at H5.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Globe_7D


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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 28, 2015 9:40 am

Here is a look at 500mb heights anomaly means over 5 days (takes an average of 5 days) from the 00z EURO Ensembles. Remember, red and orange means warmer than normal while blue means below.

First week of Dec:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Eps_z500a_5d_noram_35

Height departures begin to get more anomalous over Canada the deeper we get into December. The Canadian ridge is over central Canada, the EPO/AO/NAO are positive, and there's a signal for split flow in the west U.S. Storm tracks are likely to be to our west under this pattern. This means rain and above normal temps for the most part. You can kind of make out the south westerly flow.

2nd week of Dec:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Eps_z500a_5d_noram_49

By then, the Canadian ridge drifts further south and east. The aforementioned teleconnections remain in their respective phases, but this time the PNA looks negative. If true, temps across the eastern third of the U.S. and Canada will run well above normal. Probably looking at 50s and near or pass 60 especially in the cities.

Here was my December forecast from my winter outlook:

December - As Iv'e stated numerous times in the write-up, El Nino is currently in a strong state and this opens the gate for mild air to flood the country, especially with positive AO/NAO oscillations expected. Temperatures for the NYC Metro area should run above normal, same with precipitation amounts. If we do see accumulating snow this month it will not be until Christmas time. New Years is when I expect the pattern change to begin. By pattern change, I mean a mid level atmosphere that looks more like typical moderate El Nino's than strong one's, and the beginnings of a -AO.

One thing I want to add to that is I hope to see signs of warming getting into the mid Stratosphere (10-30 hPa). As stated yesterday's it's very cold up there which is one reason our Troposphere PV is strong. Most experts believe this happens around Christmas to early January at some point. We'll see how it plays out!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Nov 28, 2015 2:07 pm

Somebody just shoot me now.

The autumn from hell will continue well into meteorological winter.

F the strong El Niño. Scroos us everytime.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 28, 2015 2:26 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Somebody just shoot me now.

The autumn from hell will continue well into meteorological winter.

F the strong El Niño.  Scroos us everytime.

Banter my friend lol, I concur, but do not lose hope, remember last year we were or some at least throwing in the towel, and we had a great backloaded winter. But I am concerned from what I have been reading. Sigh
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 28, 2015 3:13 pm

This is an update from isotherm who posts here occasionly regarding our near term and winter forecast....
"However, the totality of indicators still suggests that the tropospheric pattern will eventually become more conducive for high latitude blocking in January. As noted, based upon current proggs, "
"Thus, I would continue to favor a 58/41/66/87 analog track as far as the NAO/AO progression rather than 83/98. We will see how it goes. Should be interesting to see how the winter progresses with the strongest basin wide Nino on record in progress."
Here is the whole article if you would like to read a little technical but informative..

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/954
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 28, 2015 3:24 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Somebody just shoot me now.

The autumn from hell will continue well into meteorological winter.

F the strong El Niño.  Scroos us everytime.
Cp i know it sucks big time to lose december but do not give up on this winter yet. What's amazing is the record warmth we have had since spring of this year after the record cold of January February and March
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:38 pm

Everything going as anticipated. If there's any part of Dec we'll be able to salvage it will be the last week. It's a stretch but you never know. Depends on the progression of the Stratosphere and if the Alaskan Vortex retrogrades to the Aleutians.

In the next Mo Mo blog, I'll be talking a lot about the Stratosphere. A lot to uncover!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:51 pm

JB posted the latest JMA valid mid to late December. Shows the AK Vortex retrograde west which helps pull ridging back and allow for colder air to penetrate eastern third of country

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 6 Img_2010

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Post by HectorO Sat Nov 28, 2015 5:17 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Everything going as anticipated. If there's any part of Dec we'll be able to salvage it will be the last week. It's a stretch but you never know. Depends on the progression of the Stratosphere and if the Alaskan Vortex retrogrades to the Aleutians.

In the next Mo Mo blog, I'll be talking a lot about the Stratosphere. A lot to uncover!

Quite depressing. The month hasn't even started and we're already tossing December away? I don't mind the cold and some snow in December. After that it's annoying. I just like some sort of cold weather for the holidays.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 28, 2015 5:27 pm

@HectorO wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Everything going as anticipated. If there's any part of Dec we'll be able to salvage it will be the last week. It's a stretch but you never know. Depends on the progression of the Stratosphere and if the Alaskan Vortex retrogrades to the Aleutians.

In the next Mo Mo blog, I'll be talking a lot about the Stratosphere. A lot to uncover!

Quite depressing. The month hasn't even started and we're already tossing December away? I don't mind the cold and some snow in December. After that it's annoying. I just like some sort of cold weather for the holidays.

It's depressing but we pretty much saw this coming since October. We're in the midst of a record breaking strong El Nino. This is what happens during such regimes. The Pacific overwhelms the entire pattern.

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