Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[HectorO]

Everything going as anticipated. If there's any part of Dec we'll be able to salvage it will be the last week. It's a stretch but you never know. Depends on the progression of the Stratosphere and if the Alaskan Vortex retrogrades to the Aleutians.

In the next Mo Mo blog, I'll be talking a lot about the Stratosphere. A lot to uncover!

Quite depressing. The month hasn't even started and we're already tossing December away? I don't mind the cold and some snow in December. After that it's annoying. I just like some sort of cold weather for the holidays.

[Frank_Wx]

Everything going as anticipated. If there's any part of Dec we'll be able to salvage it will be the last week. It's a stretch but you never know. Depends on the progression of the Stratosphere and if the Alaskan Vortex retrogrades to the Aleutians.

In the next Mo Mo blog, I'll be talking a lot about the Stratosphere. A lot to uncover!

Quite depressing. The month hasn't even started and we're already tossing December away? I don't mind the cold and some snow in December. After that it's annoying. I just like some sort of cold weather for the holidays.

It's depressing but we pretty much saw this coming since October. We're in the midst of a record breaking strong El Nino. This is what happens during such regimes. The Pacific overwhelms the entire pattern.

[Math23x7]

Everything going as anticipated. If there's any part of Dec we'll be able to salvage it will be the last week. It's a stretch but you never know. Depends on the progression of the Stratosphere and if the Alaskan Vortex retrogrades to the Aleutians.

In the next Mo Mo blog, I'll be talking a lot about the Stratosphere. A lot to uncover!

Quite depressing. The month hasn't even started and we're already tossing December away? I don't mind the cold and some snow in December. After that it's annoying. I just like some sort of cold weather for the holidays.

Hector, I'm not sure if you remember the 2006-07 season, which was also an El Nino time period, albeit a weak one. From November 24th 2006, to January 16th, 2007, with the exception of the 6-day time period from December 4th to 9th, every day in Central Park had at or above normal temperatures.  AND from December 10th to January 9th, not once did Central Park get to freezing (the lowest temperature during that stretch was 33 degrees on New Year's Eve).  Of course, once mid-January came, winter came roaring in with sustained cold, but not really with the snow.  But it did combine with two nasty ice storms (2/14/07 and 3/16/07), one's I wish I could forget (but I won't...) And to top it off my Easter Break that year (April 5th-15th) had chilly weather.

[docstox12]

Somebody just shoot me now.

The autumn from hell will continue well into meteorological winter.

F the strong El Niño.  Scroos us everytime.

Cp i know it sucks big time to lose december but do not give up on this winter yet. What's amazing is the record warmth we have had since spring of this year after the record cold of January February and March

Steady Men!!! I have been observing winters since 1960 and many many times Decembers are busts.I've seen 65 degrees on Christmas.Usually the big snow producing times are from Jan 15th to March 1st.Even last year did not get cranking until after the GTG where Frank nailed the pattern change perfectly.I never throw in the towel until the end of February.

It makes sense that this winter would be very back ended after the torch Fall.Hey, March could be the wild card here.I've seen some killer March snowstorms!

LOL, thought my cataracts were acting up but I think Frank has snowflakes coming down here.

[skinsfan1177]

So my question is yes it was expected but are the other indicators for a change late December into January still heading in the right direction. Such as the sst in the Pacific in the El nino regions

[amugs]

Docstox wholehearditly agree with this written above. I am down in DC and looked at the ECM weeklies and almost puked in disdain about the first two weeks of met winter winter BUT it is not winter as per the 21st on rhe calendar. I can't post from my phone but we see exactly what the Euro seasonal was showing back in Aug Sept and Oct. The AK vortex is also weakening as well as retrograding.

Be on more when I get home tomorrow.

[Snow88]

JB in his evening update mentioned about the SOI crashing and that the models have to adjust to that.

[Frank_Wx]

Somebody just shoot me now.

The autumn from hell will continue well into meteorological winter.

F the strong El Niño.  Scroos us everytime.

Cp i know it sucks big time to lose december but do not give up on this winter yet. What's amazing is the record warmth we have had since spring of this year after the record cold of January February and March

Steady Men!!! I have been observing winters since 1960 and many many times Decembers are busts.I've seen 65 degrees on Christmas.Usually the big snow producing times are from Jan 15th to March 1st.Even last year did not get cranking until after the GTG where Frank nailed the pattern change perfectly.I never throw in the towel until the end of February.

It makes sense that this winter would be very back ended after the torch Fall.Hey, March could be the wild card here.I've seen some killer March snowstorms!

LOL, thought my cataracts were acting up but I think Frank has snowflakes coming down here.

Hahaha, yes it's snowing all over NJ Strong. 120-180 inches can be expected since I plan on keeping it snowy through the new year.

So my question is yes it was expected but are the other indicators for a change late December into January still heading in the right direction. Such as the sst in the Pacific in the El nino regions

Yes, everything else from Stratosphere to PDO to ENSO looks good still.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Long term pattern doesnt look very good wintry ridge, SE ridge returns and a time of transient pattern in early December may spawn a wintry event in the Northeast (GFS still hinting at this today) but may remain warm enough to keep coast out of game and be an interior event if it even occurs at all which it may not. If thats the case I could see our first decent event not occuring until 2016.

[Snow88]

Great video by Meteorologist Bobby Martrich ( EPAWA Weather ). He expects the EPO to go negative by mid December and the pattern change by then due to the SOI tanking just like what JB is predicting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTy5Wbabqck#t=31

[Math23x7]

Hahaha, yes it's snowing all over NJ Strong. 120-180 inches can be expected since I plan on keeping it snowy through the new year. 

This will be the only snow we see in the NYC region through New Year's

[Frank_Wx]

Hahaha, yes it's snowing all over NJ Strong. 120-180 inches can be expected since I plan on keeping it snowy through the new year. 

This will be the only snow we see in the NYC region through New Year's

No one will win this year's contest

[Snow88]

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1017617821627195&id=160146074041045&hc_location=ufi

Jb expects the change to come 2-3 weeks from now

[Frank_Wx]

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1017617821627195&id=160146074041045&hc_location=ufi

Jb expects the change to come 2-3 weeks from now

JMA is only model hinting at pattern reversal right now. Hopefully there's more agreement in the next few days. The SOI drop doesn't give me much confidence to be honest. I'm not sure it's a signal strong enough to displace the AK vortex. We may have to wait for a SSWE, which I'm not expected until week 4 of Dec to week 2 of January

[NjWeatherGuy]

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1017617821627195&id=160146074041045&hc_location=ufi

Jb expects the change to come 2-3 weeks from now

JMA is only model hinting at pattern reversal right now. Hopefully there's more agreement in the next few days. The SOI drop doesn't give me much confidence to be honest. I'm not sure it's a signal strong enough to displace the AK vortex. We may have to wait for a SSWE, which I'm not expected until week 4 of Dec to week 2 of January

This, pattern looks stubborn for a while with the eastern ridge really flexing its muscles after a potential 2nd week of December event which the GFS is still holding onto the idea of
around the 7th-10th timeframe then in the far LR Ive been seeing a big GLC which can be a signal of the pattern change. Ultimately I think we begin to see it shift in late December and action beginning in January besides the 8th event which Im still watching.

[NjWeatherGuy]

CMC has a very big closed low right off the coast on the 9th, soaker.

[docstox12]

Would like to see some soakers coming up the coast to get that pattern established.Eventually one will come across with a snowstorm.Nothing worse than a mild or cold and DRY winter.

[Frank_Wx]

Great video by Meteorologist Bobby Martrich ( EPAWA Weather ). He expects the EPO to go negative by mid December and the pattern change by then due to the SOI tanking just like what JB is predicting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTy5Wbabqck#t=31

Bobby speaks about the SOI drop. Interestingly enough, something similar happened in 2002. Matt Gross, a friend on Facebook, brought this to my attention and provided the Nov 2002 SOI numbers below:

Nov. 21: SOI value = 1.00
Nov. 22: SOI value = 1.64
Nov. 23: SOI value = -3.05
Nov. 24: SOI value = -2.10
Nov. 25: SOI value = -11.73
Nov. 26: SOI value = -12.44
Nov. 27: SOI value = -29.31
Nov. 28: SOI value = -27.64
Nov. 29: SOI value = -37.58
Nov. 30: SOI value = -34.80

Here are November 2015 SOI numbers. Notice the eerily similar tank of the SOI around the same time period too.



We'll have to see exactly how much more the SOI takes this month into early December.

[HectorO]

Everything going as anticipated. If there's any part of Dec we'll be able to salvage it will be the last week. It's a stretch but you never know. Depends on the progression of the Stratosphere and if the Alaskan Vortex retrogrades to the Aleutians.

In the next Mo Mo blog, I'll be talking a lot about the Stratosphere. A lot to uncover!

Quite depressing. The month hasn't even started and we're already tossing December away? I don't mind the cold and some snow in December. After that it's annoying. I just like some sort of cold weather for the holidays.

Hector, I'm not sure if you remember the 2006-07 season, which was also an El Nino time period, albeit a weak one. From November 24th 2006, to January 16th, 2007, with the exception of the 6-day time period from December 4th to 9th, every day in Central Park had at or above normal temperatures.  AND from December 10th to January 9th, not once did Central Park get to freezing (the lowest temperature during that stretch was 33 degrees on New Year's Eve).  Of course, once mid-January came, winter came roaring in with sustained cold, but not really with the snow.  But it did combine with two nasty ice storms (2/14/07 and 3/16/07), one's I wish I could forget (but I won't...) And to top it off my Easter Break that year (April 5th-15th) had chilly weather.

Oh I remember the 2-14-07 storm. The highway had so much ice and then snow fell. It looked like a hidden unplowed road. As far as easter goes, by then I like the temps to start getting warm. I rather have cold early and a nice spring later on. I don't want to be shoveling out of storms late mid March lol.

[HectorO]

Somebody just shoot me now.

The autumn from hell will continue well into meteorological winter.

F the strong El Niño.  Scroos us everytime.

Cp i know it sucks big time to lose december but do not give up on this winter yet. What's amazing is the record warmth we have had since spring of this year after the record cold of January February and March

Steady Men!!! I have been observing winters since 1960 and many many times Decembers are busts.I've seen 65 degrees on Christmas.Usually the big snow producing times are from Jan 15th to March 1st.Even last year did not get cranking until after the GTG where Frank nailed the pattern change perfectly.I never throw in the towel until the end of February.

It makes sense that this winter would be very back ended after the torch Fall.Hey, March could be the wild card here.I've seen some killer March snowstorms!

LOL, thought my cataracts were acting up but I think Frank has snowflakes coming down here.

Doc, we've also had some winters with great Decembers. I believe the 07/08 we had to decent events in December. Then I think the rest of the winter sucked lol. And I cant recall whether it was 08/09 or 09/10 where we had a nice storm somewhere between the 18-21. I remember the next day going to Wollman rink and the city was absolutely frigid, the high that day was like 18º the feel like with the wind was way lower. My wife and I went ice skating and as we started ice skating snow started falling down again. Not a storm this time, just a dusting but it was like right out of a movie. That was probably one of my most magical moments in NYC during Christmas. Christmas music, snow coming down and ice skating.

[docstox12]

Great video by Meteorologist Bobby Martrich ( EPAWA Weather ). He expects the EPO to go negative by mid December and the pattern change by then due to the SOI tanking just like what JB is predicting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTy5Wbabqck#t=31

Bobby speaks about the SOI drop. Interestingly enough, something similar happened in 2002. Matt Gross, a friend on Facebook, brought this to my attention and provided the Nov 2002 SOI numbers below:

Nov. 21: SOI value = 1.00
Nov. 22: SOI value = 1.64
Nov. 23: SOI value = -3.05
Nov. 24: SOI value = -2.10
Nov. 25: SOI value = -11.73
Nov. 26: SOI value = -12.44
Nov. 27: SOI value = -29.31
Nov. 28: SOI value = -27.64
Nov. 29: SOI value = -37.58
Nov. 30: SOI value = -34.80

Here are November 2015 SOI numbers. Notice the eerily similar tank of the SOI around the same time period too.



We'll have to see exactly how much more the SOI takes this month into early December.

Did the 2002-2003 winter have the same strength El Nino in November?

This SOI parallel is very interesting considering the winter of 02-03 had the monster Feb 03 snowstorm.

[sroc4]

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1017617821627195&id=160146074041045&hc_location=ufi

Jb expects the change to come 2-3 weeks from now

JMA is only model hinting at pattern reversal right now. Hopefully there's more agreement in the next few days. The SOI drop doesn't give me much confidence to be honest. I'm not sure it's a signal strong enough to displace the AK vortex. We may have to wait for a SSWE, which I'm not expected until week 4 of Dec to week 2 of January

The SOI is a very intriguing weather feature to me.  Bastardi has been talking about the SOI crash coming in his video blogs for at least the last week (If you have a Weather Bell acct Check out the video on the NOV 25th).  According to JB, and others, the SOI daily values have been steadily rising on avg in an unprecedented fashion for an el NINO year through the month of Nov.  This has been one reason why its been so difficult to shift the ridging out of the NE.  Fluctuations in  the SOI values are not typically going to be a major pattern driver, however, when you get a dramatic crashing of the SOI, the phrase JB likes to use is, it can act like a "cattle prod" to the atmosphere.  It can typically take 2-3 weeks to see the down stream effects.   https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
Clicking on the link above, If you look here you can see there was a small drop in the daily SOI values between Nov 4-6th.  2-3 weeks later we did have the first real cold shot of Nov. around the 23rd-25th
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Now look at the Nov 27-29th time frame.  An even more potent drop.  It will be very interesting to see how the models start to handle the current SOI crash in the 2-3week time frame.  Do we get a decent trough in the east and/or storm chance in that time frame?  Here is the current look on the EPS for hr 360:
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Last year JB was right on when analyzing the SOI changes and its effects on the atmosphere.   What we see in the LR in the current modeling will likely begin to morph as time moves on in response to the SOI crashing.  How exactly is yet to be determined.   Like you said Frank we have to see if its enough of a signal to induce any significant changes to the pattern.  The strong Nino is quite dominating to the overall pattern at the moment so we are going to have to wait and see if the SOI crash is enough of a cattle prod to affect the overall pattern.  If there is going to be an effect for now I would view it more in the form of a transient one.  We are going to have to rely on the SSW, the eventual falling El NINO, and +PDO region to take over later in the season, as Frank has been noting for some time now, for a true pattern change to lock in and more consistent cold and snow chances.  My hope is there is enough of an influence with this SOI crash that we see at least a transient shot of cold, and if we are lucky 1-2 storm chances to go along with the cold shot beginning around the Dec 12th-15th time frame through the Christmas time frame.  The JMA has been a pretty darn good model when evaluating the LR upper level patterns over the last few years, so since it is possibly hinting at this now gives me some encouragement.

[docstox12]

Somebody just shoot me now.

The autumn from hell will continue well into meteorological winter.

F the strong El Niño.  Scroos us everytime.

Cp i know it sucks big time to lose december but do not give up on this winter yet. What's amazing is the record warmth we have had since spring of this year after the record cold of January February and March

Steady Men!!! I have been observing winters since 1960 and many many times Decembers are busts.I've seen 65 degrees on Christmas.Usually the big snow producing times are from Jan 15th to March 1st.Even last year did not get cranking until after the GTG where Frank nailed the pattern change perfectly.I never throw in the towel until the end of February.

It makes sense that this winter would be very back ended after the torch Fall.Hey, March could be the wild card here.I've seen some killer March snowstorms!

LOL, thought my cataracts were acting up but I think Frank has snowflakes coming down here.

Doc, we've also had some winters with great Decembers. I believe the 07/08 we had to decent events in December. Then I think the rest of the winter sucked lol. And I cant recall whether it was 08/09 or 09/10 where we had a nice storm somewhere between the 18-21. I remember the next day going to Wollman rink and the city was absolutely frigid, the high that day was like 18º the feel like with the wind was way lower. My wife and I went ice skating and as we started ice skating snow started falling down again. Not a storm this time, just a dusting but it was like right out of a movie. That was probably one of my most magical moments in NYC during Christmas. Christmas music, snow coming down and ice skating.

True that Hector, on Decembers.The very first snowstorm that got me hooked on tracking them was the Dec 11-12 1960 snowstorm.

Great memory of NY and the Wollman Rink in the winter.A real Hallmark Christmas Card moment!

[Frank_Wx]

This response applies both to Scott and Doc. In my opinion, the drop of the SOI is more of an indication of our pattern heading into what typically resembles a strong El Nino during December. The pattern over the month of November resembled more of a La Niña if anything.  During Nov the SOI, for the most part, was neutral and the MJO was very active. That is completely opposite of El Nino regimes, which should keep the SOI steadily negative and the MJO inactive (in the circle of death). Now we're seeing the SOI tank and the MJO head into the COD. Plus, LR guidance is accurately showing the AK Vortex and Canadian ridge.

Further, prior El Nino years like 83 and 97 experienced similar SOI drops and those two years had pretty different outcomes to their winter. In sum, I think the SOI drop is a response to our pattern headed to an El Nino configuration and NOT an indication we're seeing a pattern change to colder weather in the near future.
Like I mentioned, this pattern change will occur once the Stratosphere cooperates. The 2002-2003 correlation is interesting but I'm not buying it until other variables fall into place.

[docstox12]

Would this strongly negative SOI indicate the El Nino will be peaking and then receding in December?

[Frank_Wx]

Would this strongly negative SOI indicate the El Nino will be peaking and then receding in December?

Ahh yes, the million dollar question. When will El Nino peak? If you look back at other Nino years and their SOI, you'll notice it's difficult to find any correlation because the SOI fluctuates so much.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

Therefore, I think the SOI is a poor indicator to use to determine if Nino peaked or not. I think ONI, a measure of SSTs in each Nino region, is better to use. I'm still waiting for this week's update, but as of last week Nino region 3.4 was still warming. Now up to +3.1*C. You can follow ONIs here.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[docstox12]

OK, Frank, thanks for that SOI discussion.Will watch the ONI instead for a clearer Nino picture.

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