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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:42 pm

As we head deeper into the winter months the same influences will lead to diff patterns.  We are actually starting to see that. Phase 2 and 3 MJO actually are colder phases in the winter months.  
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

If you look at NDJ you see that phase 3 is a very warm temp anomaly; however, as we head into DJF, and JFM the same phase 2, 3 MJO favors cold in the east.  Remember if air goes up in one location it goes down in another.  As the temp gradients hopefully cont to increase between the western el nino regions and eastern ones the tendencies of rising air around the date line will increase infuencing the atmosphere more and more.  Unfort I am stuck at work.  I would love to be able to go into in way more detail.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:50 pm

Recall this image I posted from back on Oct 31st.  Look at the moisture fetch, aka atmosphereic river, in the northern hemisphere I have outlined in blue.  This originates in the Indian Ocean in the phase 2, 3 locations of the MJO.  

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 20151010" />

Now look at the current image.  That same moisture fetch is still playing a huge role in influencing the behavior of the polar jet.  It really has not changed.  But climatology will begin to influence how the interactions affect the jet.  
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 201511180700-00

Here is the link to the sat loop.  It is really impressive to see actually.  Just rememebr to adjust animation speed to 0.1 and the "Animation for" the last 24hrs.  
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/index.html?area=6&element=0&mode=UTC

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by amugs Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:20 pm

Scott,

Thanks for the clarification on the MJO in phase 3 - I was always under the assumption that a phase 3 was not conducive for the east coast but that is wrong.

@ Al - it will all aid in the STJ pumping - the majority of the trop forcing/convection is out by the dateline by the OLR maps I posted yesterday

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 18, 2015 6:28 pm

The bulk of the westerly winds continue to be west of 120W. One thing to notice from this graphic is these WWB (westerly wind bursts) are not as strong as they have been the last 2 months. The WWB event that took place in mid-Oct is probably 1 reason why Nino regions 3.4 and 3 are at or above 3.0*C.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 U.anom.30.5S-5N

Meanwhile, the AO has averaged very positive the last couple of weeks. You can see the dip in the AO around Thanksgiving, which is when we're expected to see our coldest temps of the season so far. Thereafter, it should trend positive again. However, the CFS model is gradually projecting the AO to trend negative as we head deep into the winter season.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 Aoindex

You can see why the AO has been super positive lately. Core of the cold anomalies, or a very strong polar jet, confined to the Arctic.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 Ao_loadingpattern

There's SOME hope at 50mb in the Stratosphere the PV may try to split in the Day 10-14. I'm not really going to believe that until next week and until we see warm temps physically transfer from the Troposphere to the Stratosphere. Like I said in my winter outlook, if this happens it will be around mid December.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf_tz50_nhemi2_41


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Post by amugs Wed Nov 18, 2015 8:48 pm

Look at how region 1.2 feel off the table on this chart WOW!!

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 Post-5119-0-55608000-1447801297

Look at how we are boiling out by the date line and beyond - woop woop!!This is comparison of 1997, 2009 and 2015

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 OAP6x31

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Post by rb924119 Wed Nov 18, 2015 8:58 pm

@amugs wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:DAM MJO!!!!!!!! It is stuck in phase 2 and 3 - why is this not good? the Indian Ocean is sealing off this convection from what I have read - kind of absorbing the convection that is building out near the date line in these phases. Need to boot this and this is also an unprecedented aspect to this Nino with this active MJO.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 Post-564-0-23040100-1447865987
 
What your saying is it needs to move to what phase and currently it's no good?

It either needs to die off or move around to death com (phase) 1 or 8 or even 7. I am not sure what affects this will have as move forward but from reading up on this it is not helping things by dampening the forcing out near the dateline. Teh forcing is strong so it wil eventually override this BUT who knows what can happen - unprecedented event overall. Hopefully it will wane as we move into Met winter. Maybe Rb can chime inhere since he did an unbelievable writ up on this modality - calling Rb? Rb where are yee??


Idk why, but this made me laugh haha

Back to the topic; sorry man, had a busy day today. Admittedly, this is something that I should have seen, but I just flat-out missed it. Live and learn. Anyway, Sroc pretty much hit it on the head with his response, so I won't restate it. I am liking how the longer range looks, with the EPO progged to tank (and I mean TANK, -4 to -5 stdev.) and the PNA gradually trend positive, coupled with MJO phase 2/3 forcing all occurring simultaneously, I think we see a great start to December, both active and cold, a brief respite through about the 20th as the patterns continue to battle it out, and then we lock in for the holidays. Just MHO, though.

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Post by Snow88 Thu Nov 19, 2015 12:33 am

GFS unloads the cold on us the 1st week of December. It also shows a coastal storm near the famous date ( 12/5 )
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Nov 19, 2015 1:48 am

I have a feeling we begin to see our first flakes and storm potentials pop up within the next few weeks. Tighten your seat belts.
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:05 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I have a feeling we begin to see our first flakes and storm potentials pop up within the next few weeks. Tighten your seat belts.

Tomas talking dirty!! Love it seeing u post this.

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Post by Snow88 Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:48 am

Come on NAO lol. This picture reminds me of the past 2 winters.
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 1j7src
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:10 am

@Snow88 wrote:Come on NAO lol. This picture reminds me of the past 2 winters.
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 1j7src

This NAO to cooperate for us here this winter it's a key factor.
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:44 am

Look at the snow growth over Canada this past week and Mongolia - WOW!!

Nov 8th
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 2015312

Nov 18th
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 2015322

With more to come! Much less moderation of cold air when we get the cross polar flow or PV sliding down peeps!

Last year in comparison:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 2012322

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Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:53 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Come on NAO lol. This picture reminds me of the past 2 winters.
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 1j7src

This NAO to cooperate for us here this winter it's a key factor.

With -EPO years the AO and NAO are not nearly as important. The El Nino is still a variable for this winter, but the last two winters both AO and NAO were strongly positve. I am not as hung up on the need for a neg NAO/AO for this winter to be above normal, but certainly could take a good winter and make it great.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by 31MBP Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:11 am

hi guys, huge favor regarding work....does anyone have a link to a respected long range, say 30 day forecast.....not a webcast type thing...just a chart/calendar would be a huge help....ty!

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Post by HectorO Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:16 am

So far next week looks pretty mild low 60s. Some places getting to mid 60s.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:21 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Come on NAO lol. This picture reminds me of the past 2 winters.
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 1j7src

This NAO to cooperate for us here this winter it's a key factor.

With -EPO years the AO and NAO are not nearly as important.  The El Nino is still a variable for this winter, but the last two winters both AO and NAO were strongly positve.  I am not as hung up on the need for a neg NAO/AO for this winter to be above normal, but certainly could take a good winter and make it great.  

True I just remember reading I think it was Frank's winter outlook that this year we may need the help. But who knows this winter looks like it's going to be wild
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:38 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Come on NAO lol. This picture reminds me of the past 2 winters.
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 1j7src

This NAO to cooperate for us here this winter it's a key factor.

With -EPO years the AO and NAO are not nearly as important.  The El Nino is still a variable for this winter, but the last two winters both AO and NAO were strongly positve.  I am not as hung up on the need for a neg NAO/AO for this winter to be above normal, but certainly could take a good winter and make it great.  

True I just remember reading I think it was Frank's winter outlook that this year we may need the help. But who knows this winter looks like it's going to be wild
I believe Frank did mention he expects the EPO to be negative this winter just not as strong as the past two years. So it would help to have a favorable Atlantic on our side.
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Post by algae888 Thu Nov 19, 2015 12:56 pm

The long-range Canadian and gfs look cold. I like the Canadian idea of a more progressive flow with the cold front moving through late next week. we will have a negative EPO and a positive PNA to start off December However with the lack of blocking we would need everything to be timed just right to see any snow but the possibilities are there. Should be interesting to see if this is short-lived cold or last s a few more weeks into December. we have to see what the typhoon does in the Pacific if it strengthens to a cat5 and curves north. Interesting times ahead
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Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 19, 2015 12:57 pm

@algae888 wrote:The long-range Canadian and gfs  look cold. I like the Canadian idea of a more progressive flow with the cold front moving through late next week.  we will have a negative EPO and a positive PNA to start off December However with the lack of blocking we would need everything to be timed just right to see any snow but the possibilities are there. Should be interesting to see if this is short-lived cold or  last s a few more weeks into December. we have to see what the typhoon does in the Pacific if it strengthens to a cat5 and curves north. Interesting times ahead

Agreed Al

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Nov 19, 2015 1:05 pm

@31MBP wrote:hi guys, huge favor regarding work....does anyone have a link to a respected long range, say 30 day forecast.....not a webcast type thing...just a chart/calendar would be a huge help....ty!

The only service I know that does this is Accuweather. Here is an example of Austin, TX:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/austin-tx/78701/november-weather/351193

To be honest with you, I would not trust them very much. You are better off asking one of us and we can get an idea for you. Once we're within the 10-14 day range we have a pretty good idea of how your sensible weather will be.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 19, 2015 2:52 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@31MBP wrote:hi guys, huge favor regarding work....does anyone have a link to a respected long range, say 30 day forecast.....not a webcast type thing...just a chart/calendar would be a huge help....ty!

The only service I know that does this is Accuweather. Here is an example of Austin, TX:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/austin-tx/78701/november-weather/351193

To be honest with you, I would not trust them very much. You are better off asking one of us and we can get an idea for you. Once we're within the 10-14 day range we have a pretty good idea of how your sensible weather will be.

I have the accuwx app, that 30 day daily forecast almost never verifies it even changes drastically within 24-48 hrs, like two days ago it had wind gusts today to 50mph.....umm a little breezy that's it.
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Post by Snow88 Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:13 pm

Chance of the storm coming west on Monday and another chance of a coastal storm near the start of December. Cold and possibly stormy end of the month coming up.
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:55 pm

HeRe is theory and I wil need to do some work on this but the OLR are showing to areas of convection one by and past the dateline and the other blob in the Indian Ocean. I am theorizing that the blob or convection in the IO is partly responsible for the -EPO. Look at the OLR to see.
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 2 FfRl3Qa

It is causing the air to rise in the section and raise the heights over the far East region thus causing the air ti sink as it reaches this Alaskan hinterland.

Also we need this MJO wave to die off as well to allow our westward shift to continue going west, it seems to be getting slowed even though we are in good range at the 150 w area to the dateline. Good stuff here. Trop forcing going to flex it's muscle and also help with the -epo due to convective feedback

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Post by Snow88 Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:20 am

Not a great pattern at all now on all of the models. Was once a cold and stormy pattern to start off December is now a warm pattern.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:53 am

@Snow88 wrote:Not a great pattern at all now on all of the models. Was once a cold and stormy pattern to start off December is now a warm pattern.

I believe Frank has been saying it will be warm for beginning of december
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