Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Frank_Wx]

Dr Judah Cohen feels a SSWE is on track to occur around the 2nd week of January.

"

At AER we have developed a polar vortex model that predicts the strength of the polar vortex one month in advance. As we discussed in the blog last month, the model was predicting the polar vortex to become disturbed the third week of December, which is now being predicted by the weather models. The polar vortex model also predicts a similar perturbing of the stratospheric polar vortex in the first week of January and again an even bigger event the second week of January. In addition, the predicted temperature pattern of cold Siberia and warm western Eurasia is favorable for increased WAFz. Therefore, based on the polar vortex model and the upcoming atmospheric circulation pattern, we are anticipating more upward pulses of WAFz. If our expectations of more upward pulses of WAFz is correct, this should be sufficient to force a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) sometime in January. One ongoing inhibiting background factor is the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) that favors a strong vortex over a weak vortex. But if our expectations of a weakened polar vortex verify, this will likely favor an increased likelihood of severe winter weather across the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. On the other hand, if our expectations of an active period of WAFz is incorrect then the polar vortex will remain strong and likely the AO will remain positive and the weather pattern mild for the Eastern United States, Northern and Western Europe and East Asia."

[HectorO]

So best case scenario is another 2 weeks of winter gone next month, with the hope of it changin by the 3rd week?

[Frank_Wx]

So best case scenario is another 2 weeks of winter gone next month, with the hope of it changin by the 3rd week?

Most likely, but could January really be as warm as December?

[Quietace]

So best case scenario is another 2 weeks of winter gone next month, with the hope of it changin by the 3rd week?

Most likely, but could January really be as warm as December?

In context the departures won't be the same, but it could feel like a carry over to start until the pattern adjustment, if and when it happens.
Yesterdays CFS v2

[Frank_Wx]

Wow, not often you see these type of colors. Temperature departures on Christmas Eve

[HectorO]

Mayne not as warm but pretty warm. Anything is possible at this point. Dome mets calling this one of the strongest el nino in quits some time. Maybe I'll have an Xmas bbq

[algae888]

frank or scott is a pattern prone to extreme warm or cold prone to extremes in general? so that if the pattern flips we end up on the other side of extremes? dec. 1989 one of the coldest on record and jan 1990 one of the warmest on record for one example.

[Frank_Wx]

frank or scott is a pattern prone to extreme warm or cold prone to extremes in general? so that if the pattern flips we end up on the other side of extremes? dec. 1989 one of the coldest on record and jan 1990 one of the warmest on record for one example.

I feel we'll head into another extreme in the 2nd half, yes. A raging El Nino undergoing rapid weakening and a very strong Stratosphere PV warming and possibly being displaced should lead to a drastic and sudden pattern change between the 3rd or 4th week of January.

[dkodgis]

Is it too early to start talking about what kind of spring we will have?

[amugs]

Is it too early to start talking about what kind of spring we will have?

Uuhh I thought this was it???

And to give an honest answer it will most likely be delayed - more to the calendar than met spring which is to start on March 1st. Then again who knows. Lets get through this season before we can talk spring.

[jmanley32]

Its gonna snow till June, watch lol, these temps are ridiculous but the majority seem to love it.

[amugs]

This is where want the OLR's position - out by the dateline - it will come to fruition for the weenies.



Here is teh comparison years 57 and 65 to what is here right now, from what i have researched they flipped mid January as well and rocked with some big storms over the second half of winter

[Snow88]

frank or scott is a pattern prone to extreme warm or cold prone to extremes in general? so that if the pattern flips we end up on the other side of extremes? dec. 1989 one of the coldest on record and jan 1990 one of the warmest on record for one example.

I feel we'll head into another extreme in the 2nd half, yes. A raging El Nino undergoing rapid weakening and a very strong Stratosphere PV warming and possibly being displaced should lead to a drastic and sudden pattern change between the 3rd or 4th week of January.

I want a Godzilla

[Frank_Wx]

This is where want the OLR's position - out by the dateline - it will come to fruition for the weenies.



Here is teh comparison years 57 and 65 to what is here right now, from what i have researched they flipped mid January as well and rocked with some big storms over the second half of winter

I read JBs post about this - he posted the same two pics. Problem is, we've had OLR forcing over the Dateline for the last month or so. Nothing to show. It's been disrupted by MJO wave forcing and that, coupled with the +QBO and cold Stratosphere, has been disastrous for us.

[Frank_Wx]

frank or scott is a pattern prone to extreme warm or cold prone to extremes in general? so that if the pattern flips we end up on the other side of extremes? dec. 1989 one of the coldest on record and jan 1990 one of the warmest on record for one example.

I feel we'll head into another extreme in the 2nd half, yes. A raging El Nino undergoing rapid weakening and a very strong Stratosphere PV warming and possibly being displaced should lead to a drastic and sudden pattern change between the 3rd or 4th week of January.

I want a Godzilla

It's coming.

[amugs]

My friend who I am trying to get to join here I spoke with tonight and asked him about the pattern, bad news we know already,  good news is he feels that once and this may sound crazy we hit Dec 21 ish and into mid Jan the atmosphere goes into a winter mode - sswe, short waves, jet stream deviates, amongst some. He feels that we eill see a pattern change to more winter like by the jan 12th ish time frame from the latest. He feels that nino wil fall of the cliff from east to west, should have happened in early Nov or mod Oct for my liking but nonetheless it will affect the atmosphere greatly for late jan through March. He feels the Ak vortex will subside and shift sw and pull everything with it. Interesting he said that we should look to Europe especially the Caspian sea area to see heights rise in thus area cause it then will extensive northward thus solidifying our winter pattern just like the AK vortex did us since May.

[amugs]

This is where want the OLR's position - out by the dateline - it will come to fruition for the weenies.



JB FTW! !

The darn MJO has been really killing us with thus, the qbo has not helped either as you say.

Here is teh comparison years 57 and 65 to what is here right now, from what i have researched they flipped mid January as well and rocked with some big storms over the second half of winter

I read JBs post about this - he posted the same two pics. Problem is, we've had OLR forcing over the Dateline for the last month or so. Nothing to show.  It's been disrupted by MJO wave forcing and that, coupled with the +QBO and cold Stratosphere, has been disastrous for us.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm starting to see many people freak out on social media. I'll be honest, I did not expect this type of warmth in December. Its been said already, but our current pattern does not resemble El Nino.



Found this graphic on the web. It looks at 200mb zonal winds in each phase of El Nino. In other words, it shows where the Polar and Sub-Tropical Jet streams are located. We're currently in a strong El Nino - one near record levels - so we're most interested in the far right graphic. Notice it's very amplified and passing through the southern tier of the U.S. and points south. This is why the southern US typically sees above normal precipitation during El Nino seasons.



Check out the 200mb zonal wind anomaly map for this season. The STJ is virtually non-existent. This is more of a mid-latitude jet that is crashing into the Pac NW, inundating that area of the country with storms and below normal temps.

Why is this the case? I'll be honest and say I don't know. Could it be the active MJO waves? From my research when I was writing my Winter Outlook, the MJO should be mainly inactive during strong El Nino events. That hasn't been the case.



Throw in the super cold Stratosphere and +QBO and this is a recipe for disaster. Hopefully the turn around comes in mid to late January.

[algae888]

This is where want the OLR's position - out by the dateline - it will come to fruition for the weenies.



Here is teh comparison years 57 and 65 to what is here right now, from what i have researched they flipped mid January as well and rocked with some big storms over the second half of winter

I read JBs post about this - he posted the same two pics. Problem is, we've had OLR forcing over the Dateline for the last month or so. Nothing to show.  It's been disrupted by MJO wave forcing and that, coupled with the +QBO and cold Stratosphere, has been disastrous for us.

frank while the forcing is around the date line it is mostly in the southern hemisphere but steadily moving north. also the indian ocean has a lot of convection as well and why we are in phase 4-5 of the mjo. as steve d has been saying we need the dateline forcing to move north which should also move the mjo into more favorable phase 7,8 and 1. maybe that will change the 500mb look. I do not know. I do think the stratosphere is not the main problem though as cold air has been invading western NA and think we can get cold in the east even with a strong PV. their are a lot of things wrong right now at 500mb we need a ton of changes.

[algae888]

also what I heard from another board with regards to analogs is that 2011/12 and 2001/02 do not match this Decembers pattern as those years had warmth throughout north America unlike this year where it's warm only in the east. as you know those two years were very low snow totals for us. also we can throw out 97/98 and 72/73 as they where east based nino's also with low snowfall here. so i do not think we end up like those years. i do not know how this will play out but I would lean more towards 82/83 as December was very warm and then got one good storm in feb. maybe we get 2 this year.
2001/02. 3.5"
2011/12. 4.5"
97/98. 5.5"
72/72. 2.8"

82/83. 24.2"
math let me know if these are correct

[Frank_Wx]

This is where want the OLR's position - out by the dateline - it will come to fruition for the weenies.



Here is teh comparison years 57 and 65 to what is here right now, from what i have researched they flipped mid January as well and rocked with some big storms over the second half of winter

I read JBs post about this - he posted the same two pics. Problem is, we've had OLR forcing over the Dateline for the last month or so. Nothing to show.  It's been disrupted by MJO wave forcing and that, coupled with the +QBO and cold Stratosphere, has been disastrous for us.

frank while the forcing is around the date line it is mostly in the southern hemisphere but steadily moving north. also the indian ocean has a lot of convection as well and why we are in phase 4-5 of the mjo. as steve d has been saying we need the dateline forcing to move north which should also move the mjo into more favorable phase 7,8 and 1. maybe that will change the 500mb look. I do not know. I do think the stratosphere is not the main problem though as cold air has been invading western NA and think we can get cold in the east even with a strong PV. their are a lot of things wrong right now at 500mb we need a ton of changes.

Steve D may be right in saying the Dateline convection is too far south and the IO forcing is the main driver along the Equator. That makes sense - since MJO phases have been in 3-6 for the most part. But we're also seeing SSTAs just as warm, if not warmer, in the east-central Tropical Pacific so it's odd the convection is dominating the IO. We've even seen strong westerlies and WWBs attack 180 to 120W on multiple occasions. But, it looks like the convection over the IO has won out over ENSO forcing.

I slightly disagree with your statement regarding the Stratosphere. A trough has been over the west coast mainly because of the IO forcing (unfavorable MJO phase) which is disempowering El Nino from being the main driver. A very cold Strat means a raging ++AO. This keeps the Polar Jet locked into the North Pole, as well as, the Tropospheric PV. The cold in the west is a result of the Siberian connection from the "LA Nina" like pattern.

also what I heard from another board with regards to analogs is that 2011/12 and 2001/02 do not match this Decembers pattern as those years had warmth throughout north America unlike this year where it's warm only in the east. as you know those two years were very low snow totals for us. also we can throw out 97/98 and 72/73 as they where east based nino's also with low snowfall here. so i do not think we end up like those years. i do not know how this will play out but I would lean more towards 82/83 as December was very warm and then got one good storm in feb. maybe we get 2 this year.

I agree here. 2011-2012 had an ugly pig Vortex over Alaska which basically destroyed our entire winter. If you look at 500mb maps, that is not the case. We're being overrun by IO forcing, a Pac / mid latitudinal Jet, and a strong Strat PV leading to record breaking +AO levels.

[Abba701]

So it's 70 next week here frank? And perhaps 75?

[Abba701]

It's a good think it DOSENT get 30 above normal in July.I wouldn't be surprised if this summer it did.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

also what I heard from another board with regards to analogs is that 2011/12 and 2001/02 do not match this Decembers pattern as those years had warmth throughout north America unlike this year where it's warm only in the east. as you know those two years were very low snow totals for us. also we can throw out 97/98 and 72/73 as they where east based nino's also with low snowfall here. so i do not think we end up like those years. i do not know how this will play out but I would lean more towards 82/83 as December was very warm and then got one good storm in feb. maybe we get 2 this year.
2001/02. 3.5"
2011/12. 4.5"
97/98. 5.5"
72/72. 2.8"

82/83. 24.2"
math let me know if these are correct

Al :

82/83 was 27.2 , 21.5 inches in February most of it from the Feb 11-12 17.6 inch storm which now ranks 12th all time in NYC but at the time it ranked 6th.

2011/12 was 7.4

The others you posted are all correct. Having now be reminded of and lived through all five of those winters, thanks for the nightmares I'll have tonight.

[NjWeatherGuy]

I'm starting to see many people freak out on social media. I'll be honest, I did not expect this type of warmth in December. Its been said already, but our current pattern does not resemble El Nino.



Found this graphic on the web. It looks at 200mb zonal winds in each phase of El Nino. In other words, it shows where the Polar and Sub-Tropical Jet streams are located. We're currently in a strong El Nino - one near record levels - so we're most interested in the far right graphic. Notice it's very amplified and passing through the southern tier of the U.S. and points south. This is why the southern US typically sees above normal precipitation during El Nino seasons.



Check out the 200mb zonal wind anomaly map for this season. The STJ is virtually non-existent. This is more of a mid-latitude jet that is crashing into the Pac NW, inundating that area of the country with storms and below normal temps.

Why is this the case? I'll be honest and say I don't know. Could it be the active MJO waves? From my research when I was writing my Winter Outlook, the MJO should be mainly inactive during strong El Nino events. That hasn't been the case.



Throw in the super cold Stratosphere and +QBO and this is a recipe for disaster. Hopefully the turn around comes in mid to late January.

STJ has been super amplified into the eastern US and will continue to be so until mid-January or so IMO, keeping us well above normal and wet. Unusual even for a strong El Nino it seems.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=12&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=00&fhour=264&parameter=WSPD&level=200&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Math23x7]

I first began viewing these images several years ago. It seems cliche to say it, but I have never seen anything like this...

[Radz]

Geez, near 70 in spots on Christmas Eve possible ahead of a "cool" front, with 30+ guests, you bet the windows will be open!

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