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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Post by docstox12 Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:09 am

Many Decembers through the many years I've been observing are mild with little snow.Things get cranking most of the time after Christmas.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:43 am

@Snow88 wrote:Not a great pattern at all now on all of the models. Was once a cold and stormy pattern to start off December is now a warm pattern.

No surprises. It would have been nice to the EPO ridge stay over the Northeast Pac / Alaska, but that's not the nature of El Nino's in December. The EPO ridge is going to roll into western Canada and a trough is going to cut underneath it. This split-flow look in the west in combination with a +NAO/+AO is going to lead to warmer than normal temps for the eastern U.S.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Test8

Stratosphere and progression of the El Nino is where we should be looking this time of year.

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Post by RJB8525 Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:35 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Many Decembers through the many years I've been observing are mild with little snow.Things get cranking most of the time after Christmas.

Yup santa rendeer
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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 21, 2015 7:45 am

Honestly Im not sure why people are so quick to jump back and fourth on the LR flipping its look.  I mean when we see a MECS in the perfect position to crush everyone 240hrs out do we EVER take it for the truth?  No so why would we take the LR pattern on an operational model(s) verbatim as well?  Frank with all due respect I still believe the beginning part of Dec will be either at or slt below normal on avg for now.  Here is why.  

Here is a look at 00z Dec 1st on the ensembles.  Euro first then GFS:

Here is the old hr 360 for the 00z Dec 1st time frame
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z522" />

Hr 336
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z523" />

Hr 312
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z524" />

And last nights hr240:
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z525" />


And the GFS old hr 360:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Gfs-en11" />

Current 00z run hr 240:
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Gfs-en12" />


So for me the way I interpret the latest run and the trends in the ensembles over the last several days in this time frame are this:
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z526" />
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Gfs-en13" />

The negatives have been trending towards concentrating further west and just S of the Aleutian islands.  The positives spread out over Canada are slowly trending towards concentrating in western and NW Canada into Eastern Alaska.  This would argue for a +PNA and or -EPO.  If this trend were to cont this would argue for a strong Canadian HP dropping into the central CONUS bleeding east.  The result of all of the above leads to negatives(blue colors aka a trough) trending deeper into the SE and E similar the way we trended that way with the Nov23rd time frame.  In fact we may have to watch for a system spinning up somewhere along the east coast around this time frame for sure if these trends were to cont.  

Old Hr 228 for 00z Nov 23rd
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z527" />
Current Hr48 for 00z Nov 23rd:
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z528" />

The way I see it at the very least this is not a warm look.  Now if the negative heights were to trend towards a closed upper level low in the S then of course we could get a system cutting to our west and we are warm sectored until it passes, but then the Canadian HP follows behind it and we get the cold rush in.  Now I will show you this as well as to not completely discount a warmer soln.  The Canadian ensembles have actually trended towards a warmer soln.

Old hr 360 00z Dec1st:
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Gem-en10" />

Current hr 240:
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Gfs-en14" />

But again I believe the negatives cont to concentrate just S of the eastern Aleutians; the positives over central Canada pull back and concentrate into W Canada; the positives over the NE pull east and concentrate out in the Western Atlantic and the negatives in the central CONUS trend towards the SE.  
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Gem-en11" />

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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 21, 2015 7:48 am

Here is the current 360hr ensemble forecast for Dec 6th time frame:  Lets see how this trends in the means:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z529" />
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Gfs-en15" />

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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 21, 2015 8:01 am

Scott nice write-up and I agree that anything after 5 days on the models needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The models have consistently shown energy in the southwest hanging back for 3,4 even 5 days before moving east. the flow to progressive for that to happen. I am still liking the November 30th through December 5th time frame. Not saying we will get snow then as climatology is against us but something to watch this week. And I think temps will be at or below normal during that time. The other thing we have to watch is the hurricane in the Pacific how strong it gets and where it ends up. I don't have any new information on it. what does guidance show the next several days?
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 21, 2015 8:10 am

Another interesting note is that many winter forecast have places in the Upper Midwest and Rocky Mountain area with below normal snowfall this year. Well those places have gotten off to a flying start. Colorado Iowa Wisconsin Northern Illinois Indiana and michigan will enter December well above normal in snowfall totals even with warm temperature departures for most of them. Most of us in New England and the mid-atlantic haven't felt the effects of El Nino yet as we are remarkably in a drought and below normal precipitation for October and November but I have a feeling things will change.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Nov 21, 2015 8:59 am

Great write up sroc detailed easy to understand. I also don't get why people are worried even if December starts out warm. Janruary and February is when we get the goods I have a feeling many are going to think that winter will be mild and shoeless and then baaboom!
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Post by Snow88 Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:10 am

JB also thinks that the models are too warm for the start of December and should cool off as we get closer .6z GFS still shows a big storm near Dec 5. Warm this run but there is still the storm signal. It has been showing up for several runs now.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:34 am

@Snow88 wrote:JB also thinks that the models are too warm for the start of December and should cool off as we get closer .6z GFS still shows a big storm near Dec 5. Warm this run but there is still the storm signal. It has been showing up for several runs now.

Holy crap. JB and I are totally on the same page. If you look at the time stamp mine came out first. lol 7:45am me vs 8:52am JB

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 21, 2015 10:10 am

I'm not suggesting the beginning of December will be warm. My general tone is the month as a whole will finish with above normal temp departures and there's a lot of evidence to back it up, as stated in my winter outlook. Of course there's going to be brief shots of cold, similar to what we'll see next week before Thankagiving.

The 00z EPS 5-day 500mb height anomaly means from Nov 29th to Dec 4th:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z500a_5d_exnamer_53

This is certainly not a warm look for our area. As you pointed out Scott, there's a trough over the Aleutians though it's not favorably oriented since low heights are entering the west coast. The EPO ridge (see November thread) shifts into western Canada. NAO/AO continue to be positive.

Here is Dec 1st through 6th:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z500a_5d_exnamer_61

Not much has changed. One key difference is the upper ridge that was in west Canada on the last frame is now shifting toward central Canada. If this happens, and it's quite common during strong El Nino Decembers, it would cut off any cross polar flows from developing. Much of the cold air that gets into the northeast will either be moderated or stale. Notice how the southern tier of the country is seeing neutral heights. I can actually see this turning into low heights in future frames. The STJ is beginning to flex it's muscles this time of year and a series of waves will bring rainfall to those places. These storms, at least some, are likely to come up the coast too. That should help prevent temp departures from getting too high. Still, I feel December will end +1 to +2.


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Post by Math23x7 Sat Nov 21, 2015 10:41 am

Over the last few weeks, snow lovers in the DC-NY region have thought about this mild November pattern and have been thinking that it could lead to a very snowy winter and they have used 2009-10 as an example. In fact, a couple of weeks ago, I even made a comparison by showing similar AO, NAO, and PNA readings. However, if we want to take the big picture we have to ask ourselves what made that winter epic for the aforementioned region. And the answer is simple: the super negative AO/NAO couplet. Over the last couple of years, I have been posting updated AO/NAO/PNA daily readings from the CPC website going back to 1950. I have my file updated through 8/31/15 so there are about 24,000 readings for each teleconnection. I took a screen-cap of the period from November 17th, 2009 to January 2nd, 2010:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 2009-110

For the NAO and AO, positive indices are in red and negative indices are in blue. For the PNA, positive indices are in blue and negative indices are in red. What you probably notice right off the bat is that from late November onward, the NAO and AO are both in blue. And the the "Ranking from Smallest" columns have the NAO going as far down as -2.104 (the 133th lowest on record) and the AO going as far down as -5.821!, (the 13th lowest on record!) And while the PNA was negative for a time that December, it moved into the positive range just in time for the 12/19/09 snowstorm.
The last two winters have been dominated not so much by the AO/NAO but rather the -EPO. I do not have daily EPO readings so I cannot compare. However, if we don't get those warm waters off of eastern Alaska, it will be tough having a snowy winter in the east for 2015-16.


Last edited by Math23x7 on Sat Nov 21, 2015 10:46 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 21, 2015 10:45 am

Love your readings Mike. And yes, SSTA in the northern Pac are critical. I think the +PDO phase will help us.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:01 am

If taken verbatim Frank I would agree but although the LR projection has the ridge centered further East into Canada in the 1st-6th my argument is that the EPS model tends to have a bias in this type of pattern where over time it corrects this as we get closer by shifting this ridge back west and opening the door for the the cross polar flow. The other bias to the EPS is holding energy back in the SW. As time goes by we have seen more and more of this energy coming out and interacting with the N jet. Again the 23rd ofNov is a really good example of this bias in the EPS where in the LR is shows more neg in the SW, then as we get closer the model catches up and we see more come out and therefore more neg further east. We shall see if this hold true again in the first week or two of DEc.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:10 am

It's not just the EPS. Here is progression of H5 on GEFS from 6-10 day range then 11-15:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Gfs-ens_z500a5d_namer_2

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Gfs-ens_z500a5d_namer_3

And no matter what happens with the ridge, one thing is pretty evident for sure and that's the positive NAO and AO indices. This suggests the PV is to remain bottled up in the Arctic and cold shots intruding the northeast will either be moderated or short lived. There's no poleward ridging shown anywhere in the long range, unless you include the Canadian ridge but it's location is not ideal to perturb the PV.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:16 am

@Snow88 wrote:JB also thinks that the models are too warm for the start of December and should cool off as we get closer .6z GFS still shows a big storm near Dec 5. Warm this run but there is still the storm signal. It has been showing up for several runs now.

I don't see where he says that. His Saturday summary touches on the nation wide cold blast for next week, but doesn't mention December.

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Post by Snow88 Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:49 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:JB also thinks that the models are too warm for the start of December and should cool off as we get closer .6z GFS still shows a big storm near Dec 5. Warm this run but there is still the storm signal. It has been showing up for several runs now.

I don't see where he says that. His Saturday summary touches on the nation wide cold blast for next week, but doesn't mention December.

Earlier in the week
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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:54 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:JB also thinks that the models are too warm for the start of December and should cool off as we get closer .6z GFS still shows a big storm near Dec 5. Warm this run but there is still the storm signal. It has been showing up for several runs now.

I don't see where he says that. His Saturday summary touches on the nation wide cold blast for next week, but doesn't mention December.

If you dont have a subscription you prob cant open it. Posted 8:52 this am 
http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/euro-operational-flip

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:55 am

What will be interesting to see on future model runs will be if the higher heights can get into Alaska at all. To me that is a better indicator of where the Canadian ridge is trying to set up. If positive anomalies exist over Alaska, the Canadian ridge will absolutely be pulled back west instead of shunned east into central Canada. As of now, the GEFS and EPS kind of hint at it in 6-10 range but lose the signal beyond that.

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Post by Snow88 Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:59 am

12z GFS still has the coastal storm for December 5 but the cold air has retreated by then. It has shifted east from 6z. Long way to go with this one.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:01 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:JB also thinks that the models are too warm for the start of December and should cool off as we get closer .6z GFS still shows a big storm near Dec 5. Warm this run but there is still the storm signal. It has been showing up for several runs now.

I don't see where he says that. His Saturday summary touches on the nation wide cold blast for next week, but doesn't mention December.

If you dont have a subscription you prob cant open it. Posted 8:52 this am 
http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/euro-operational-flip

Thanks I'm subscribed just never look at the blog section of WB. He's looking at the EURO operational and why it made a flip. Operational models in the long range always flip, especially this time of year. It's nothing new. The point about the Typhoon recurve is valid. We'll just have to monitor closely exactly where the Canadian ridge sets up.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:06 pm

@Snow88 wrote:12z GFS still has the coastal storm for December 5 but the cold air has retreated by then. It has shifted east from 6z. Long way to go with this one.

What I did like about the run is there was an upper level low off the west coast helping to turn the PNA from negative to positive. If that storm is timed better with the ridge amplifying...you never know. But it's never a good idea to rely on ULLs to bring you positive PNAs. They usually are overdone in the LR.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:22 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:What will be interesting to see on future model runs will be if the higher heights can get into Alaska at all. To me that is a better indicator of where the Canadian ridge is trying to set up. If positive anomalies exist over Alaska, the Canadian ridge will absolutely be pulled back west instead of shunned east into central Canada. As of now, the GEFS and EPS kind of hint at it in 6-10 range but lose the signal beyond that.

Frank We are prob going to have to agree to disagree for now, but again I think beyond the 10day is doing exactly that (trending towards higher heights further West, and N into NW Canada and Alaska).  The trend on the EPS from old hr 360 all neg heights in alaska through current hr 240 now has the ridge extend up into eastern Alaska is quite clear for 00z Dec 1st time frame.  My post from this morning shows the in between times as well.  In addition the negatives in the Western GOA are trending west and stronger.  Although not perfect positioning if this trend were to hold true the source region for the air would be northern Canada and greeland.  That big neg over Greenland/NE greenland is also trending deeper.  That would suggest a counter clockwise flow in that region, so despite a + NAO/AO telleconnect the ridge in west/trough in east configuratiuon over NW Canada and NE Canada/Greenland respectively would promote an polar or arctic air mass.  To a lesser degree the GEFS are telling me the same thing.  
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z522" />
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 <a href=Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Eps_z525" />

The result of the above mentioned seems to be trending the negatives in the SE to look stronger as well.  Again Frank I totally respect what your saying but I think the 6-10menas vs the 11-15 arent giving a clear picture.  It would be nice to see the 8-12 day means.  I think the 11-15 will cont to evolve to a coolder look over time.


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:24 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:23 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:JB also thinks that the models are too warm for the start of December and should cool off as we get closer .6z GFS still shows a big storm near Dec 5. Warm this run but there is still the storm signal. It has been showing up for several runs now.

I don't see where he says that. His Saturday summary touches on the nation wide cold blast for next week, but doesn't mention December.

If you dont have a subscription you prob cant open it. Posted 8:52 this am 
http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/euro-operational-flip

Thanks I'm subscribed just never look at the blog section of WB. He's looking at the EURO operational and why it made a flip. Operational models in the long range always flip, especially this time of year. It's nothing new. The point about the Typhoon recurve is valid. We'll just have to monitor closely exactly where the Canadian ridge sets up.

After he shows the operrational he shows the EPS. Basically the same maps I showed above and says the same thing I did

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by algae888 Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:43 pm

The GFS 7 to 10 days ensemble mean has a very nice look to it with the ridge all the way up into Alaska almost connecting to the Siberian Ridge and a nice trough in eastern Canada into the eastern US. The Canadian is similar the euro is not as amplified. If the GFS is correct it wouldn't take much for one of the short waves to dig and form a low somewhere along the East Coast. interesting times very late month into early December definitely looks cold on all the models. we'll see where the trends go in the coming day.
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

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