NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 9.0

+35
snowlover 12345
Snowfall
hyde345
Mathgod55
Dtone
weatherwatchermom
WOLVES1
elkiehound
devsman
Radz
Abba701
dkodgis
Quietace
Vinnydula
CPcantmeasuresnow
billg315
snow247
Math23x7
RJB8525
docstox12
jmanley32
HectorO
31MBP
NjWeatherGuy
rb924119
skinsfan1177
nutleyblizzard
Snow88
chief7
sroc4
aiannone
amugs
Frank_Wx
algae888
Dunnzoo
39 posters

Page 22 of 40 Previous  1 ... 12 ... 21, 22, 23 ... 31 ... 40  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 16, 2015 8:50 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:You can see its getting squeezed from both sides. That means we're heading into a wave 2 event. Think of it as squeezing a bottle of toothpaste. Vorticity within the center gets elongated and PV center gets stretched out. That said, it's still over the North Pole. Still more work to be done.

So Frank how do we get the PV to move south and give us the cold that we need and in that Dec.26 picture it still up in Canada.
.

The sudden Stratospheric Warming can not be confined to just 1 or 10 hPa (upper Stratosphere). It needs to downwell into the mid and lower levels. This would displace the PV out of the Pole and into the lower latitudes of North America

Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Join date : 2013-01-05

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by chief7 Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:16 pm

This should brighten up everyone's day puthttp://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.

chief7

Posts : 132
Join date : 2013-11-10

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by chief7 Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:18 pm

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.

chief7

Posts : 132
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-11-10
Location : Langhorne pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by chief7 Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:18 pm

I can't seem to pass it anyway it's the Japanese model for December February and it's really good

chief7

Posts : 132
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-11-10
Location : Langhorne pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:20 pm

chief7 wrote:This should brighten up everyone's day puthttp://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.

It wont upload so here  I found it to upload - MADONNNEEEEE - this woudl be a 360 for J-M I am assuming for this to verify - it is good but my goodness we would need a Feb 2015 for this to help verifyplus March and Jan to be -2 BN!!

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Imageproxy.php?img=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.jamstec.go.jp%2Ffrcgc%2Fresearch%2Fd1%2Fiod%2F2007%2Fforecast%2Ftemp2.glob.DJF2016.1dec2015

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:28 pm

amugs wrote:
chief7 wrote:This should brighten up everyone's day puthttp://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.

It wont upload so here  I found it to upload - MADONNNEEEEE - this woudl be a 360 for J-M I am assuming for this to verify - it is good but my goodness we would need a Feb 2015 for this to help verifyplus March and Jan to be -2 BN!!

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Imageproxy.php?img=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.jamstec.go.jp%2Ffrcgc%2Fresearch%2Fd1%2Fiod%2F2007%2Fforecast%2Ftemp2.glob.DJF2016.1dec2015

A 360? That would bring us right back to where we are, I think you mean a 180, lol get some rest we have time : )
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:37 pm

Well in my world of sports a 369 a complete turnaround is my frame reference jman. 180 to me is a 1-2 turn around. To each his own.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by algae888 Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:56 am

gfs ensembles in fantasy land starting to show a pattern flip maybe in response to MJO phase 7-8.. heights build in the west +pna and lp starts retrograding towards the Aleutians. also as Scandinavian ridge builds maybe starts to disrupt polar vortex. lets hope trends continue in coming days.
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:23 am

Inaccuweather starting to show normal temperatures beginning the first week in January, mostly highs in the mid and upper 30's which is average for January but would be a drastic change from what we've had.

Normal would be nice, after record setting warmth in December. Take it with a grain of salt though, they were showing this 2 weeks out in late November for mid December and of course that hasn't come close to verifying.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:42 am

Looks like Jet Blue airplane crash in the 90's that went right into the Fla Swamp from 20K feet - talk about falling off the cliff!!

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1dec2015


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:01 am

amugs wrote:Looks like Jet Blue airplane crash in the 90's that went right into the Fla Swamp from 20K feet - talk about falling off the cliff!!

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1dec2015

Weak La Nina next year? Could be good, or terrible...
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:15 am

1.2
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Nino12Seaadj

Interesting how it looks to hold onto its warmth well into next year
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Nino4Seaadj

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:46 am

amugs wrote:1.2
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Nino12Seaadj

Interesting how it looks to hold onto its warmth well into next year
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Nino4Seaadj
Most likely ENSO neutral by next year, thats a good thing.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:12 pm

12z still teasing

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=360&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151217+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=372&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151217+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151217+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:21 pm


EPAWx Authority ‏@epawawx 21h21 hours ago
Indisputable fact: ALL guidance now shows a weakening of the PV through several SSWE events. 2nd week of January pattern flip with lag time.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:13 pm

Come to poppa - fantasy range of course but changes are a brewing now we have the stratosphere percolating with the Siberian warming as noted in posts from yesterday.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Gfs_z500a_nhem_53

Let's see what the GEFS bring

NICE!! PNA building in BC, AL trough regressing - good signs here

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65

12Z GEFS TELECONNECTIONS
AO
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Gefs_ao_12

NAO
Neg/neutral
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Gefs_nao_12

PNA
Positive
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Gefs_pna_12

EPO
Neutral
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Gefs_epo_12



_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:00 pm

CFS in the 20-25 day.  Man thats a site for sore eyes.  The warmth in Alaska likely means a neg EPO.  Long way to go but at least its starting to show up.  

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 CWdJ3IYUAAAvS3Y

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 17, 2015 8:10 pm

Euro weeklies by week 4 signal a -EPO with a trough over the SW. Progress...

A lot to talk about in the next Mo Mo

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 17, 2015 8:11 pm

That continual flow of warmth across Canada due to split streams and a ridge means were probably not going to have a "polar vortex" this year or at least not right away. Like to see deep seated arctic air pumping down into the entire US directly from Canada and the Arctic but its not looking like it wants to happen. This probably means cold shots will be more transient and mild than the brutal air of the past few years. We might have to deal with stale air and mixing more often, hope that look changes or else I fear itll be a nasty 2006-2007 pattern of storms (the el Nino was much weaker then).
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:25 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:That continual flow of warmth across Canada due to split streams and a ridge means were probably not going to have a "polar vortex" this year or at least not right away. Like to see deep seated arctic air pumping down into the entire US directly from Canada and the Arctic but its not looking like it wants to happen. This probably means cold shots will be more transient and mild than the brutal air of the past few years. We might have to deal with stale air and mixing more often, hope that look changes or else I fear itll be a nasty 2006-2007 pattern of storms (the el Nino was much weaker then).

Tom,

I hear what you are saying here but the ssw that is happening and the second one is going to have an effect 9n the pv so don't write this off just yet. As Frank and others (Cohen);have been stating that the AO wil be negative in the means over the winter late Jan through Feb and March. Heck last year we had no AO nor NAO and we were the 3rd ? coldest Feb if all time with an epo and pna. So my point being if and when we get the AO to go negative and if it does by 2,3 SD then imo watch out it can be brutal. The PV is off the charts cold this year all we need to do is break the dam.only time will tell but in 3 weeks from now we may be gearing up for such

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:30 pm

Would like to see this is all im saying.

https://www.google.com/search?q=february+2015+pattern&client=ms-android-verizon&prmd=nsiv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj8pYuYruTJAhUJ2BoKHZOEAfIQ_AUICSgD#imgrc=u2Sdz564peQc9M%3A
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:02 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Would like to see this is all im saying.

https://www.google.com/search?q=february+2015+pattern&client=ms-android-verizon&prmd=nsiv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj8pYuYruTJAhUJ2BoKHZOEAfIQ_AUICSgD#imgrc=u2Sdz564peQc9M%3A

This would be great yes.

Ripped from WSI site - what do you think?? IO think it is looking good to 10000000x better than the fire hose torch (dichotomy) we have the next 10 days

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 A101b80ddebb5166b5d8dfdd2745cc1e

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 3e0143c9a9090920d8db35961503f696

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:26 pm

Looks progressive, neutral overall, probably transient pattern of warm and cold shots and storm chances, but like I said they could be sloppy, need to see some blocking and deep troughing in the east with ridging in the west. But your right, a lot better than an amped STJ into the east US with this pumped ridge we've been having.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:07 am

Ugh

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151218+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Doesnt want to stop cutting... Had a feeling that coastal would disappear or turn into a cutter. Dont expect real changes until mid January.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Abba701 Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:37 am

How can you predict

Abba701

Posts : 328
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-14

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Abba701 Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:38 am

That on Jan 3 this storm will be a cutter.Its still over 2 weeks away

Abba701

Posts : 328
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-14

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:10 am

Just a feeling... dont think the pattern will flip until mid-January. Until then I dont expect snow and not much cold.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 22 of 40 Previous  1 ... 12 ... 21, 22, 23 ... 31 ... 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum