Long Range Thread 9.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
.skinsfan1177 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:You can see its getting squeezed from both sides. That means we're heading into a wave 2 event. Think of it as squeezing a bottle of toothpaste. Vorticity within the center gets elongated and PV center gets stretched out. That said, it's still over the North Pole. Still more work to be done.
So Frank how do we get the PV to move south and give us the cold that we need and in that Dec.26 picture it still up in Canada.
The sudden Stratospheric Warming can not be confined to just 1 or 10 hPa (upper Stratosphere). It needs to downwell into the mid and lower levels. This would displace the PV out of the Pole and into the lower latitudes of North America
Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
This should brighten up everyone's day puthttp://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.
chief7- Posts : 132
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.
chief7- Posts : 132
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
I can't seem to pass it anyway it's the Japanese model for December February and it's really good
chief7- Posts : 132
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
chief7 wrote:This should brighten up everyone's day puthttp://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.
It wont upload so here I found it to upload - MADONNNEEEEE - this woudl be a 360 for J-M I am assuming for this to verify - it is good but my goodness we would need a Feb 2015 for this to help verifyplus March and Jan to be -2 BN!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
amugs wrote:chief7 wrote:This should brighten up everyone's day puthttp://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.
It wont upload so here I found it to upload - MADONNNEEEEE - this woudl be a 360 for J-M I am assuming for this to verify - it is good but my goodness we would need a Feb 2015 for this to help verifyplus March and Jan to be -2 BN!!
A 360? That would bring us right back to where we are, I think you mean a 180, lol get some rest we have time : )
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
Well in my world of sports a 369 a complete turnaround is my frame reference jman. 180 to me is a 1-2 turn around. To each his own.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
gfs ensembles in fantasy land starting to show a pattern flip maybe in response to MJO phase 7-8.. heights build in the west +pna and lp starts retrograding towards the Aleutians. also as Scandinavian ridge builds maybe starts to disrupt polar vortex. lets hope trends continue in coming days.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
Inaccuweather starting to show normal temperatures beginning the first week in January, mostly highs in the mid and upper 30's which is average for January but would be a drastic change from what we've had.
Normal would be nice, after record setting warmth in December. Take it with a grain of salt though, they were showing this 2 weeks out in late November for mid December and of course that hasn't come close to verifying.
Normal would be nice, after record setting warmth in December. Take it with a grain of salt though, they were showing this 2 weeks out in late November for mid December and of course that hasn't come close to verifying.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
Looks like Jet Blue airplane crash in the 90's that went right into the Fla Swamp from 20K feet - talk about falling off the cliff!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
Weak La Nina next year? Could be good, or terrible...amugs wrote:Looks like Jet Blue airplane crash in the 90's that went right into the Fla Swamp from 20K feet - talk about falling off the cliff!!
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
1.2
Interesting how it looks to hold onto its warmth well into next year
Interesting how it looks to hold onto its warmth well into next year
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
Most likely ENSO neutral by next year, thats a good thing.amugs wrote:1.2
Interesting how it looks to hold onto its warmth well into next year
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
12z still teasing
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=360&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151217+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=372&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151217+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151217+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=360&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151217+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=372&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151217+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151217+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
EPAWx Authority @epawawx 21h21 hours ago
Indisputable fact: ALL guidance now shows a weakening of the PV through several SSWE events. 2nd week of January pattern flip with lag time.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
Come to poppa - fantasy range of course but changes are a brewing now we have the stratosphere percolating with the Siberian warming as noted in posts from yesterday.
Let's see what the GEFS bring
NICE!! PNA building in BC, AL trough regressing - good signs here
12Z GEFS TELECONNECTIONS
AO
NAO
Neg/neutral
PNA
Positive
EPO
Neutral
Let's see what the GEFS bring
NICE!! PNA building in BC, AL trough regressing - good signs here
12Z GEFS TELECONNECTIONS
AO
NAO
Neg/neutral
PNA
Positive
EPO
Neutral
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
CFS in the 20-25 day. Man thats a site for sore eyes. The warmth in Alaska likely means a neg EPO. Long way to go but at least its starting to show up.
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
Euro weeklies by week 4 signal a -EPO with a trough over the SW. Progress...
A lot to talk about in the next Mo Mo
A lot to talk about in the next Mo Mo
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
That continual flow of warmth across Canada due to split streams and a ridge means were probably not going to have a "polar vortex" this year or at least not right away. Like to see deep seated arctic air pumping down into the entire US directly from Canada and the Arctic but its not looking like it wants to happen. This probably means cold shots will be more transient and mild than the brutal air of the past few years. We might have to deal with stale air and mixing more often, hope that look changes or else I fear itll be a nasty 2006-2007 pattern of storms (the el Nino was much weaker then).
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
NjWeatherGuy wrote:That continual flow of warmth across Canada due to split streams and a ridge means were probably not going to have a "polar vortex" this year or at least not right away. Like to see deep seated arctic air pumping down into the entire US directly from Canada and the Arctic but its not looking like it wants to happen. This probably means cold shots will be more transient and mild than the brutal air of the past few years. We might have to deal with stale air and mixing more often, hope that look changes or else I fear itll be a nasty 2006-2007 pattern of storms (the el Nino was much weaker then).
Tom,
I hear what you are saying here but the ssw that is happening and the second one is going to have an effect 9n the pv so don't write this off just yet. As Frank and others (Cohen);have been stating that the AO wil be negative in the means over the winter late Jan through Feb and March. Heck last year we had no AO nor NAO and we were the 3rd ? coldest Feb if all time with an epo and pna. So my point being if and when we get the AO to go negative and if it does by 2,3 SD then imo watch out it can be brutal. The PV is off the charts cold this year all we need to do is break the dam.only time will tell but in 3 weeks from now we may be gearing up for such
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
Would like to see this is all im saying.
https://www.google.com/search?q=february+2015+pattern&client=ms-android-verizon&prmd=nsiv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj8pYuYruTJAhUJ2BoKHZOEAfIQ_AUICSgD#imgrc=u2Sdz564peQc9M%3A
https://www.google.com/search?q=february+2015+pattern&client=ms-android-verizon&prmd=nsiv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj8pYuYruTJAhUJ2BoKHZOEAfIQ_AUICSgD#imgrc=u2Sdz564peQc9M%3A
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Would like to see this is all im saying.
https://www.google.com/search?q=february+2015+pattern&client=ms-android-verizon&prmd=nsiv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj8pYuYruTJAhUJ2BoKHZOEAfIQ_AUICSgD#imgrc=u2Sdz564peQc9M%3A
This would be great yes.
Ripped from WSI site - what do you think?? IO think it is looking good to 10000000x better than the fire hose torch (dichotomy) we have the next 10 days
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
Looks progressive, neutral overall, probably transient pattern of warm and cold shots and storm chances, but like I said they could be sloppy, need to see some blocking and deep troughing in the east with ridging in the west. But your right, a lot better than an amped STJ into the east US with this pumped ridge we've been having.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
Ugh
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151218+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
Doesnt want to stop cutting... Had a feeling that coastal would disappear or turn into a cutter. Dont expect real changes until mid January.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151218+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
Doesnt want to stop cutting... Had a feeling that coastal would disappear or turn into a cutter. Dont expect real changes until mid January.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
That on Jan 3 this storm will be a cutter.Its still over 2 weeks away
Abba701- Posts : 328
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Re: Long Range Thread 9.0
Just a feeling... dont think the pattern will flip until mid-January. Until then I dont expect snow and not much cold.
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