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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:02 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Look at the EURI AP ( Austin Powers) MJO FORECAST is this nice or what?

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small_1(9)

I had an amazing write up this morning regarding the MJO and current observations, and how we are right on track.  There were beuatiful graphics and maps to support my thoughts.  I was an hr into my write up when I clicked the wrong button and lost it all!!!!!!  I was so pissed.  I may try and write it up again tonight or tomorrow morning.  It was a keeper.  End rant Yes Loving that MJO forecast

I did that once. It ruined my week.

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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:19 pm

I think we have a solid storm signal jan 10/11 time frame....
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11
eps goes from this
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 568442cbb7206_c299fd9cce8c3344755911489bdb4fa8(1).thumb.jpg.4cfa0db37fbb1be17ee9041ef6d60dd7
to this hrs 240-288. -epo +pna stj aimed right at us.

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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:22 pm

18z gfs
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:44 pm

SROC - that happened to me 2x and I use word - you told me this last year come to think of it!! I look forward to your in depth and clear analysis.

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:47 pm

algae888 wrote:I think we have a solid storm signal jan 10/11 time frame....
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11
eps goes from this
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 568442cbb7206_c299fd9cce8c3344755911489bdb4fa8(1).thumb.jpg.4cfa0db37fbb1be17ee9041ef6d60dd7
to this hrs 240-288. -epo +pna stj aimed right at us.

There will be enough cold air to make snow for those who might be concerned - we get the polar bridge going and it will help funnel the cold air down. Not terribly cold but just cold enough.

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by amugs Wed Dec 30, 2015 7:00 pm

Isotherm speaks volumes hear with this:

The NAO and AO are both moderately negative by January 3rd on all ensemble guidance, and are progged to maintain the negative bias throughout the two week period. Unanimous agreement on that. Honestly, I can't believe some of what I'm reading regarding the depicted pattern. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble looks for January 10th-15th are superior to any Arctic/Atlantic mid winter pattern we've had since 2010-11. The first several days of January will be slightly colder than normal; warmer than normal 5th-10th, and the more sustained below normal should develop beyond the 10th. Everything continues to remain on track. I don't expect a SSW to show up on models for at least another week, as the official event, I think, will occur the third week of the month, when WAF peaks in response to the wave enhancement.

5th -10th he is thinking +2 to 3 for NYC

This from our PM last night:
ME:
Okay, I am pondering g the NAO going neg possible the latter part of the mid month 17-129th time frame. Why you ask of course ? No crystal ball or hunch just the fact the models usually lag the AO splitting time fame and NAO due to the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere at different levels. Speaking with an ex student and soccer player of mine who is pro met ans worked for noaa explained to me that the heights will rise pretty sudden if so due to the Siberian heat release and the trop forcing that is causing upstream and down stream effects in the atmosphere. A synopsis of the communication I had with him. He is also thinking a KU storm magnitude or two with such a juiced up stj and hl block along with pac and pna along with ao. His thinking is we may have a a historical period of time from Jan 24th to Feb 18th ish time frames. PD three using met analogs for patterned storm tracks.

Tom's response:
I think your friend is correct regarding the pattern forcings, namely the impact of tropical convection / Rossby wave generation, and the Siberian high induced vertical energy transfer. Both factors are quite important. The Pacific forcing is retrograding into a high AAM tendency which when coupled w/ East Asian mountain torque episodes, can promote enhanced wave driving from the troposphere to the stratosphere. I think we're going to see the climax of the wave driving occur in the second week of January, and ultimately split or displace the vortex with the SSW. Split opportunities appear to be increasing due to the developing wave-2 pattern, which if it occurs, could really send us into a 50-60 day period of active winter in the mid latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

I'm not yet ready to say we're definitely getting KU events, but this year has the best opportunity since 2010-11 for one to occur. I agree with your meteorologist friend's time frame as the probable most severe period of winter [circa Jan 20th-Feb 20th] considering seasonal progression / indicators and analogs.

All should just chill out about the model op runs - ens are not waffling and continue to get better. Canadian is wild from Jan 10th -15th

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 30, 2015 7:29 pm

The first Arctic airmass of the season for early next week is going to feel cold/frigid to say the least compared to how warm it has been. The Euro and GFS both have the first
lows near 25 for NYC of the winter next Tuesday.
MAX
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Ndfd_t2max_nj_5
MIN
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Ndfd_t2min_nj_5

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 30, 2015 7:40 pm

Euro Next Tuesday night lows
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Ecmwf_t2min_east_23

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Radz Wed Dec 30, 2015 7:46 pm

amugs wrote:The first Arctic airmass of the season for early next week is going to feel cold/frigid to say the least compared to how warm it has been. The Euro and GFS both have the first
lows near 25 for NYC of the winter next Tuesday.
MAX
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Ndfd_t2max_nj_5
MIN
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Ndfd_t2min_nj_5

Love to see the cold, now lets make it sustained, and a side order of KU please- i'll take mine with a NESIS of 11+ please Smile
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 30, 2015 7:51 pm

The latest GFS has a textbook bottom-up SSW from 70hpa to 10hpa. If this signal is still here one week from today - there's no reason why it shouldn't be - then we'll have ourselves a displaced or split PV.

70hPa valid January 2nd:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 NH_HGT_70mb_072

10hPa valid January 2nd:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 NH_HGT_10mb_072

At 70hPa, the PV is over the North Pole but beginning to look stretched out. 10hPa still shows a strong and organized PV. At this point, the wave 2 event is just getting started.

70hPa valid January 6th:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 NH_HGT_70mb_168

10hPa valid January 6th:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 NH_HGT_10mb_168

Wave 2 is in full force. Ridging from the Kara Sea and western North America forces the PV at 70hPa to split. 10hPa still shows a strong PV not positioned favorably, but gradually it's beginning to look elongated at its center. While the lower Stratosphere endures warming from the Troposphere ridges, the upper Strat is seeing +WAF/EPV.

70hPa valid January 13th:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 NH_HGT_70mb_336

10hPa valid January 13th:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 NH_HGT_10mb_336

10hPa valid January 15th:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 36 NH_HGT_10mb_384

By mid-month, the 10hPa PV is essentially out of the Arctic and over east Russia. It's hinting at a possible split, but I still think displacement will be the end result. I think we're still in line for a full SSW between week 2 and week 3 of January. We'll see what happens...


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Post by chief7 Wed Dec 30, 2015 8:10 pm

Frank how confident are you about this possible displacement 1 to 10 10 being very confident

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 30, 2015 9:33 pm

chief7 wrote:Frank how confident are you about this possible displacement 1 to 10 10 being very confident

10

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 30, 2015 9:54 pm

BOOOM to that Frank!! Talking Dirty here I am pumped as we enter into this new year!!!

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Post by chief7 Wed Dec 30, 2015 10:12 pm

Hot damn

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Post by Guest Wed Dec 30, 2015 11:05 pm

Can someone please explain what KU is when talking about winter storms.

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Dec 30, 2015 11:07 pm

KU: Kocin-Uccellini the coauthors of "northeast snowstorms"

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Post by Snow88 Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:10 am

Models are really struggling
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:50 am

Just watched Joe C. Video this morning it was the GFS LR and he says it's very confusing and wants to wait for the euro. Gfs only showed shots of cold air and the two syrems that come up coast are all rain.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:51 am

Snow88 wrote:Models are really struggling
Appears Gfs is having a difficult time hopefully euro comes through
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Post by chief7 Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:38 am

I'm hearing last night's GEFS ensembles and the European ensembles we're pretty good for the extended period. Can anyone confirm that

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:53 am

chief7 wrote:I'm hearing last night's GEFS ensembles and the European ensembles we're pretty good for the extended period.  Can anyone confirm that

After the cold to start next week, we're going to go through a stretch of normal to slightly above normal temps between January 6th and 11th. After the 11th, we should be getting into a period of sustained cold with optimal chances for snowstorms. But I reiterate, I still think the BEST and FULL THROTTLE winter pattern is not coming until week 4 of January (as explained in my blog).

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Post by Snow88 Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:55 am

Latest NAO and AO. AO is still going to tank. The NAO is going towards neutral. It even has some members going slightly negative.
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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 31, 2015 10:42 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
chief7 wrote:Frank how confident are you about this possible displacement 1 to 10 10 being very confident

10
Frank if the stratosphere doesn't work out for us do you still expect a cold and snowy pattern for February? Although by your response I don't think this is a concern of yours.lol
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 31, 2015 11:19 am

Well its not coming tonight but the hot damn comment on franks confidence level made me think of this LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE2l5filkMU
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Post by Guest Thu Dec 31, 2015 11:34 am

Math23x7 wrote:KU: Kocin-Uccellini the coauthors of "northeast snowstorms"

Thanks Math. I've heard of Uccellini. Kocin brings back fond memories for me. I used to wait up in the evenings and at 10 to the hour on TWC Paul Kocin would come on and would discuss winter weather. I think it was called Storm Watch? He was so passionate about winter storms that it rubbed off on me.

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Post by Guest Thu Dec 31, 2015 11:36 am

How much would it suck if after this record warm and wet December, we go cold with the pattern change, but don't have any storms.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:04 pm

syosnow94 wrote:How much would it suck if after this record warm and wet December, we go cold with the pattern change, but don't have any storms.

Hush jinxer! LOL But no that would tryly b aweful but I think we see trains of storms like franks original map said storms galore (will they all hit and be snowstorms probably not but I bet we get a beast at least once).
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