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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Post by dkodgis Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:57 pm

Friends-Happy New Year. Here's to some real snow coming next month. Cheers.
Regards, Damian
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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 31, 2015 2:06 pm

I think we may need to open up the tropical thread again as the euro has a tropical storm off the southern Florida coast on day 7.lol
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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 31, 2015 2:08 pm

All three models continue to show a storm for next Saturday and Sunday. All three show a transfer to the coast. the euro is the warmest of all. This could be a first legitimate shot at snow
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Post by Snow88 Thu Dec 31, 2015 2:57 pm

Cold Monday night and Tuesday depicted the GFS and Euro

Highs in the mid to upper 20s on Tuesday and lows in the upper teens for NYC
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:19 pm

Euro was very close to a minor coastal snow event during the Monday time frame.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:25 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Cold Monday night and Tuesday depicted the GFS and Euro

Highs in the mid to upper 20s on Tuesday and lows in the upper teens for NYC

It's about damn time. A below normal day? What a novelty.
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Post by chief7 Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:47 pm

I hear you CP

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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:26 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Cold Monday night and Tuesday depicted the GFS and Euro

Highs in the mid to upper 20s on Tuesday and lows in the upper teens for NYC

It's about damn time. A below normal day? What a novelty.
Cp get ready for colder weather than this week in the January 10th thru 20th time frame. Eps is really cold and getting colder with each run
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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:31 pm

@aiannone wrote:Euro was very close to a minor coastal snow event during the Monday time frame.
Yes we should at least see some snow showers with the Arctic front but I have a feeling in the next 3 weeks we're going to see storms popping up in the three to five day time frame as the models are having a hard time with this pattern change. Today's gfs has a huge negative nao at the end of its run. Eps very cold. Also hearing there are tropical systems in the Pacific when added to the mix of what's going on in the atmosphere will really give the models trouble. Finally some fun times ahead
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:13 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Euro was very close to a minor coastal snow event during the Monday time frame.
Yes we should at least see some snow showers with the Arctic front but I have a feeling in the next 3 weeks we're going to see storms popping up in the three to five day time frame as the models are  having a hard time with this pattern change. Today's gfs has a huge negative nao at the end of its run. Eps very cold. Also hearing there are tropical systems in the Pacific when added to the mix of what's going on in the atmosphere will really give the models trouble. Finally some fun times ahead

I'm really hoping we lock into a pattern from mid Jan they match. February could be huge if we get the ColD to stay
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:15 pm

@algae888 wrote:I think we may need to open up the tropical thread again as the euro has a tropical storm off the southern Florida coast on day 7.lol
it's the euro can't discount it lol. Tropics thread still open
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:53 pm

I'm not liking the threat too much between the 8th and 10th for snow. There's one around the 12th that I do find a bit more intriguing. Anywho, check out the -NAO block the GFS advertises mid-month. This would rival 2009 and likely bring a Godzilla to our area sometime between the 15th-25th.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Gfs_z500a_namer_51

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:11 pm

Thumbs up I'm patiently waiting
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:13 pm

Holy 18z gfs 15th...frank did u see gfs b5 post thst timeframe? If not u are god.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Holy 18z gfs 15th...frank did u see gfs b5 post thst timeframe? If not u are god.

No I posted the 12z H5 map. I guess 18z shows a Godzilla? Exclamation Question

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:19 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Holy 18z gfs 15th...frank did u see gfs b5 post thst timeframe? If not u are god.

No I posted the 12z H5 map. I guess 18z shows a Godzilla? Exclamation Question

I guess one would say so?

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:21 pm

[img]Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Screen10[/img]

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:53 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Holy 18z gfs 15th...frank did u see gfs b5 post thst timeframe? If not u are god.

No I posted the 12z H5 map. I guess 18z shows a Godzilla? Exclamation Question

I guess one would say so?

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50

can we just go to bed tonight and wake on the 15th??? That would make a lot of us Snow Lovers Happy!!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:57 pm

18z run tis an active and exciting run showing a few storm possibilities including the mouth watering fantasy bomber towards the end of the run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=360&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151231+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
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Post by chief7 Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:20 pm

I just read the latest cansips model looks great for the month of January March- February March looks like a classic strong Nino setup, SE trough with strong ridging in NW Canada, PAC low just SW of aletuians I don't know how good that model is so I just was throwing it out there

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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:27 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Holy 18z gfs 15th...frank did u see gfs b5 post thst timeframe? If not u are god.

No I posted the 12z H5 map. I guess 18z shows a Godzilla? Exclamation Question

I guess one would say so?

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50

I need a closer look at this: Humina humina humina. Its only the LR GFS, Its only the LR GFS

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_50

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:59 pm

[quote="chief7"]I just read the latest cansips model looks great for the month of January March- February March looks like a classic strong Nino setup, SE trough with strong ridging in NW Canada, PAC low just SW of aletuians I don't know how good that model is so I just was  throwing it out there[/quote

Mr Cohens latest J-M map temps bring it baby
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Image.png.c61b661f2e96ecec6f8530519915f0f0

CFS agrees hahahah!!

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:01 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:18z run tis an active and exciting run showing a few storm possibilities including the mouth watering fantasy bomber towards the end of the run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=360&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151231+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Did u see duece bomb miller a it had after the 15th in the gulf, Texas coast. As per the ens that puppy should come our way also.

Done till manana off to celebrate new years.

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Post by chief7 Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:16 pm

That's great news Mugs bring it on brother!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:01 am

Holy mother of 0z GFS, Happy New Year 2016!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
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