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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 01, 2016 9:36 am

0z EPS still likes the Jan 9-10 event. Has a cluster of lows near the benchmark with cold enough 850s.
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 01, 2016 9:37 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Holy mother of 0z GFS, Happy New Year 2016!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

12 days away.

What a beautiful setup. A HV special, but most share in the fun.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 01, 2016 10:01 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Holy mother of 0z GFS, Happy New Year 2016!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

12 days away.

What a beautiful setup. A HV special, but most share in the fun.

Hoping for coastal blizzard I think this year will deliver and once again I will be over seasonal avg. South and east my friend
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 10:04 am

The Day 11 to 13 threat has some credibility if what 500mb guidance is saying comes true.

00z EPS:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Eps_z500a_noram_45

6z GEFS::

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Gefs_z500a_noram_47

The bias' of each model come into play with both graphics. Notcce the EPS is much more amplified with the mid-level troughs compared to the GEFS. On the other end, the GEFS are looking progressive / elongated with the troughs. Specifically, the GEFS show a trough axis over the Great Lakes while the EPS dig it into the southeast. Lastly, placement of the PNA/EPO ridge differs with both ensemble suites. The EPS has the core of the positive heights over western Canada with a slight SW to NE orientation. The GEFS has the ridge over Alaska (further N&W) with more of a N-S orientation.

IMO, with a ridge to that degree of amplification, it should yield a trough similar to what the EPS shows. I think the GEFS bias is more at play here since it's trying to keep the axis of the trough further north and keep the flow across the U.S. progressive, hence the lower heights entering the west.

There's some blocking to work with as well. Higher heights shown near the Davis Strait should also lead to an eastern US trough axis similar to where the EPS has it. A deep trough over the NW Atlantic could act as a roadblock for energy to escape out to sea. Timing plays a critical role with how the upper level vort energies interact. Plenty of time to watch this one. Just gotta see where the trends take us.

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Post by hyde345 Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:09 pm

Just looked at the 12Z GFS. It is really struggling in the long range. What the hell is it doing after 252 hrs?
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:11 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Holy mother of 0z GFS, Happy New Year 2016!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

12 days away.

What a beautiful setup. A HV special, but most share in the fun.

Hoping for coastal blizzard I think this year will deliver and once again I will be over seasonal avg. South and east my friend

LOL, don't even joke about that Skins.If you get 17 inches and the "extremely sharp" cutoff is the Bergen County-Orange County line and we get 1.75 inch in the HV, there may be a suicide watch issued for our good buddy CP,LOL!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:23 pm

@hyde345 wrote:Just looked at the 12Z GFS. It is really struggling in the long range. What the hell is it doing after 252 hrs?

The GFS is struggling with the pattern. The signals are there which is all that matters. Lean on the EURO and CMC. I'll post their maps when they come out.

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:34 pm

The 12Z CMC nicely depicts the split flow look with a bowling ball southern vort. Since it's closed off, heights rise along the EC and a phase with the Northern energy happens too soon. Storm goes up the Apps.

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 01, 2016 1:33 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Holy mother of 0z GFS, Happy New Year 2016!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=276&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

12 days away.

What a beautiful setup. A HV special, but most share in the fun.

Hoping for coastal blizzard I think this year will deliver and once again I will be over seasonal avg. South and east my friend

LOL, don't even joke about that Skins.If you get 17 inches and the "extremely sharp" cutoff is the Bergen County-Orange County line and we get 1.75 inch in the HV, there may be a suicide watch issued for our good buddy CP,LOL!

You know me Doc, I'm almost there now after this December from Hell.

You coined it Hellnino, thank God it's finally loosening it's ugly grip.
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Abba701 Fri Jan 01, 2016 1:35 pm

That would mean warm in the east? What's with late January to
February? Still cold?

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Snowfall Fri Jan 01, 2016 1:50 pm

No major storms until the half point of January maybe a snow shower but nothing more. I do see at least two 12 plus storms this season and that hot Atlantic water we will be thanking

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:15 pm

@Snowfall wrote:No major storms until the half point of January maybe a snow shower but nothing more. I do see at least two 12 plus storms this season and that hot Atlantic water we will be thanking  

We'll see, the 10th-12th period needs to be watched. The EURO literally has off the charts type of blocking

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Blocking.thumb.png.101a62408f07b08bc8c8ab903d9efc5c

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:25 pm

The 12z euro would have shown a nice snowstorm for the EC if it went out further. By the way, the new EURO upgrade will also go out to 384 hours. Just like the GFS.

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:32 pm

Looks like the latest GFS wants to push the Jan. 11-12 storm off the southeast a bit. Not that subtle differences matter this far out. The Jan. 9 event still showing up although that could lean more toward rain or mix.
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Post by RJB8525 Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:42 pm

@Snowfall wrote:No major storms until the half point of January maybe a snow shower but nothing more. I do see at least two 12 plus storms this season and that hot Atlantic water we will be thanking  

bold statement lol

3 words

ya gotta believe!
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Post by Snowfall Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:33 pm

Oh I believe and I learned a lot from you guys since accu chat I'm a snow luster after 14 days we get going full steam

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:36 pm

Check out @nj_strong_wx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/683023561808830465?s=09

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:48 pm

@Snowfall wrote:No major storms until the half point of January maybe a snow shower but nothing more. I do see at least two 12 plus storms this season and that hot Atlantic water we will be thanking  
Welcome to the board Snowfall. I agree with you the likelihood of multiple major snowstorm events occurring. What the latest EURO is showing is purely spellbinding. When you have ample cold air soon to be available with blocking and the gulf open for business, that makes for explosive potential. I firmly believe its not a matter of if anymore, its when.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:58 pm

I've been quiet.....for a while I know lol That said, anybody else check out the latest MJO forecasts??? If so, do you see what might be signals of a possible consensus of it getting stuck?? Wink Wink Wink Wink Latest stratospheric forecasts and ensemble 500 hPa anomalies still look fantastic to me in the super-long range, because I think the 500 hPa anomalies may be getting washed out a bit with a typical "taper to climatology". Time will tell.

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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:59 pm

WOW!!!!
jan 9th
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_9
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_9
jan11th
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_11
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Check out @nj_strong_wx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/683023561808830465?s=09
That 500mb map is weather porn Frank. Let's see if it delivers the goods. I think it will.
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:22 pm

both storms jan 9th and 11th. some beasts in there...
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 6PslJs4
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:29 pm

really trying to keep expectations down but the end of eps run shows a -nao/epo ridge/50/50 low and plenty of cold air. all we need is for the pac jet to keep sending s/w through the flow and we are in business.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:55 pm

Wow, euro ensembles are fantastic. 

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 A1947fa7f5ea63d502195c35c7aa9e4b

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:02 pm

The EPS are more impressive with the Davis Strait block than last night's run. What an awesome trend this is turning out to be  

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Eps_z500a_noram_47

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