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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 11:34 pm

Up to this point in the GFS run, it's all southern stream driven with a powerful and closed off vort meandering across the southern US. The STJ is very impressive.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 40 Gfs_uv250_us_31

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 11:37 pm

00z CMC is running faster than the GFS, Shows an impressive coastal storm.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 40 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f228

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 40 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f231


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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 11:40 pm

Just a huge all southern stream driven vort that was able to produce it's own track up the coast. Latest GFS

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 40 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f225

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Jan 01, 2016 11:48 pm

Cripes things are getting interesting for next week.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=240&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=228
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2016 11:54 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Cripes things are getting interesting for next week.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=240&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=228

Yup, lots of winter weather heading our way! I hope we get a nice snowstorm out of it. I'll rate the setup a 7/10 right now. We need more wave spacing between Storm 1 and Storm 2

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Post by oldtimer Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:39 am

Frankie still having trouble getting on. What happen for you to change my password? Thanks for all your help.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 02, 2016 6:49 am

I know the scroll up top says 11th-13th for the first significant snowfall, and that may be, but I would not sleep entirely on the 8th-10th time frame. The ensemble mean for both Euro and GFS does not agree with its operational runs respectively. Red flag in my book to monitor this closely esp as we begin the time frame of under 7days out. Remember the perfect hit 7+ days on a model is not where you want to be. Trends are our friend...sometimes.

[img]Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 40 Eps_sl11[/img]
[img]Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 40 Gfs-em10[/img]

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 02, 2016 7:14 am

6z GFS shows a really weird miller B setup for the 9th storm, certainly strange, rain to mod snow here, new england blizzard.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 02, 2016 7:24 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:6z GFS shows a really weird miller B setup for the 9th storm, certainly strange, rain to mod snow here, new england blizzard.

Still this far out with the MJO forecast changing and with blocking patterns still evolving up north, the operational models will cont to struggle with this system as well as the one between the 11th-13th and beyond. , I think its not until we are 3-5days out IMO, that we really start to see a true consensus start to form.  Pattern is not great for this first system, so still approx. 7days out I'm not holding my breath.  But I am certainly not looking past it so long as the ens means cont to show what they show for now.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 02, 2016 8:42 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:6z GFS shows a really weird miller B setup for the 9th storm, certainly strange, rain to mod snow here, new england blizzard.

Still this far out with the MJO forecast changing and with blocking patterns still evolving up north, the operational models will cont to struggle with this system as well as the one between the 11th-13th and beyond.   , I think its not until we are 3-5days out IMO, that we really start to see a true consensus start to form.  Pattern is not great for this first system, so still approx. 7days out I'm not holding my breath.  But I am certainly not looking past it so long as the ens means cont to show what they show for now.

The biggest reason why I'm not feeling the 1st system is because the trough is pulling away and the cold air over us is old / moderated. We'll see if a strong coastal form which could help pull the cold air back in, but models not supportive of that yet.

The system between the 11th-13th has an Arctic airmass to work with.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 02, 2016 8:43 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:6z GFS shows a really weird miller B setup for the 9th storm, certainly strange, rain to mod snow here, new england blizzard.

Still this far out with the MJO forecast changing and with blocking patterns still evolving up north, the operational models will cont to struggle with this system as well as the one between the 11th-13th and beyond.   , I think its not until we are 3-5days out IMO, that we really start to see a true consensus start to form.  Pattern is not great for this first system, so still approx. 7days out I'm not holding my breath.  But I am certainly not looking past it so long as the ens means cont to show what they show for now.

The biggest reason why I'm not feeling the 1st system is because the trough is pulling away and the cold air over us is old / moderated. We'll see if a strong coastal form which could help pull the cold air back in, but models not supportive of that yet.

The system between the 11th-13th has an Arctic airmass to work with.

Great point.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 02, 2016 8:46 am

There are a lot of new members who signed up the last few daya. I want them to know that every Monday, I release a blog that looks at the current weeks weather and the long range. I refer to them as Mo Mo's (Monday Morning blogs). You can look back at some of the old threads to read the last few. My last one gave a timeline of when I think the pattern from mild to sustained colder weather will change. Here it is if you'd like to read it:

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/122715-mo-mo-winter-2016-pattern.html

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Post by frank 638 Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:54 am

Great write up frank and like u said by the second to third week of January we will have A pattern change to a more favorable snow and cold  Very Happy Smile

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Post by RJB8525 Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:01 am

@frank 638 wrote:Great write up frank and like u said by the second to third week of January we will have A pattern change to a more favorable snow and cold  Very Happy Smile

party party party
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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:20 am

Morning Frank and Happy New Year- do the warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures this year help feed into these storms that might hit us over the next few weeks? Will it help enhance snowfall rates should precip fall as snow? I know last year we were below normal with ocean temps. Curious how this winter's setup in regards to ocean temps influence the coastal areas.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:39 am

@dsix85 wrote:Morning Frank and Happy New Year- do the warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures this year help feed into these storms that might hit us over the next few weeks? Will it help enhance snowfall rates should precip fall as snow? I know last year we were below normal with ocean temps. Curious how this winter's setup in regards to ocean temps influence the coastal areas.

The warm Atlantic SSTs will produce stronger than normal Nor'easters off the east coast this year. Warm core cyclones (tropical systems) feed off warm SSTs to get stronger. The same can be said for cold core cyclones. That said, this does not always benefit the immediate coast since winds blowing from the east tend to keep precipitation in the form of rain over snow due to the warm SSTs. Coastal sections have to wait until winds shift from east to N or NW so the Arctic air gets pulled to the coast.

So you get stronger storms with higher snow rates, but there usually is a case of rain to mix to snow for coastal sections. But once it flips to snow, the rates are so high they usually make up for it.

-------

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