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December 2015 Observations & Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:21 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:JB already tooting the horn about noreaster, high winds and beach erosion....and you guys thought I was obsessed.  If it deepens as much as CMC shows I could see wind and ocean issues, otherwise just another aweful rainstorm.

Definitely will be rain. I alluded in the last Mo Mo the Polar Jet Stream is bottled to the north. Even if the stoem - somehow - is able to tap into cold air to the north I feel the air will be moderated. And with the Atlantic running above normal and winds likely coming out of the east it'll be very difficult for snow to fall along the coast.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:JB already tooting the horn about noreaster, high winds and beach erosion....and you guys thought I was obsessed.  If it deepens as much as CMC shows I could see wind and ocean issues, otherwise just another aweful rainstorm.

Definitely will be rain. I alluded in the last Mo Mo the Polar Jet Stream is bottled to the north. Even if the stoem - somehow - is able to tap into cold air to the north I feel the air will be moderated. And with the Atlantic running above normal and winds likely coming out of the east it'll be very difficult for snow to fall along the coast.
I never mentioned snow, was never expecting it. I just hope its a bit more interesting than a straight downpour. But then again I think this year all we really want is snow.
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Post by aiannone Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:59 pm

37.8* here in Lyndonville, VT with fog and light rain (0.64in since 12am this morning). Cold front will swing through tonight and will allow the rain to mix with snow later tonight through tomorrow. Not expecting much in the way of accumulations, maybe a coating at most. Highest elevations in the Green Mountains may receive 2-4". Very late start to the winter season up here.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2015 11:42 pm

Woah, GFS going towards CMC, but still jut offshore except far south jersey. This looking like could be a bad boy, NWS mentioned warm air but ATM? Do they feel its possible cold air could get involved somehow?

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_pr10
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2015 11:43 pm

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_ms10
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 02, 2015 11:44 pm

Regardless if we get those winds verbatim over land if this pans out this way like JB said earlier the beaches will take a beating.
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Post by Quietace Thu Dec 03, 2015 8:08 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Regardless if we get those winds verbatim over land if this pans out this way like JB said earlier the beaches will take a beating.
What beaches? They are already decimated. Dunes enter right into the surf zone.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:42 pm

It is possible this storm continues to lift more to the north/northwest as it gets pulled up before turning east-northeast, its sort of a closed low situation and a voilatile setup. However, as currently progged itll remain offshore giving us some rain passing east of benchmark. Still time to trend, CMC further east. Whats the EURO show?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 03, 2015 6:12 pm

I'll be honest today actually had a winter feel in the air and was quite windy as well. I'm looking forward to seeing how this winter pattern eventually evolves
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 03, 2015 7:44 pm

Does anyone know where we finished in november for warmest?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 03, 2015 8:00 pm

According to Dtone...

"Didn't set a new record, but Nov 2015 tied the warmest Nov from 2001.
Also 2nd warmest met. Fall."

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 03, 2015 8:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:According to Dtone...

"Didn't set a new record, but Nov 2015 tied the warmest Nov from 2001.
Also 2nd warmest met. Fall."

Thanks Frank do you know how much above normal we averaged
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 03, 2015 8:53 pm

+5.7 for CPK - central park.

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 03, 2015 8:55 pm

Going to be interesting to see where Dec ends up temp wise. Next week we see about 10* above normal.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 03, 2015 9:52 pm

The next 10 days look like a forecast for mid to late April. The nightmare isn't just continuing its getting worse.
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 03, 2015 10:24 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The next 10 days look like a forecast for mid to late April. The nightmare isn't just continuing its getting worse.

CP I hear you my man, it really sucks but if we can endure this time period we will be able to put such behind us and move towards winter as it approaches in the calendar of the 21st. Hang in there bud and I will send the out the OTI extraction team out to pull you and snowman from the cave around the end of dec. Don't bite those if u will for they shall bring goods just like the three wise men.
Doc chime in here for your witty humor on what we are going to bring to CP - Franzillasense, white gold and ???

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Post by snow247 Thu Dec 03, 2015 10:28 pm

Hang in there, hopefully the waiting will be very worth it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:08 pm

Gfs is a miss for next week's potential Nor'easter

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f126

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Post by Dtone Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:16 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Does anyone know where we finished in november for warmest?

upon futher review..turns out CPK did set a new record for warmest Nov. By 0.1*. 52.8* which is about avg Nov for Huntsville, AL.
Also tied record warmest Fall
LGA JFK EWR and Islip set new records for warmest Fall.

https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 04, 2015 5:52 am

Storm update, latest trends are kicking it further east, energy is progressing faster across the CONUS and flow is beginning to look a lot more progressive than a few days ago when the energy looked to close off and have time to drift northwest, I dont think that will be the case anymore, if anything we'll be brushed and maybe not affected at all, maybe just far eastern areas but we'll have to continue to watch it. CMC began catching onto this trend and GFS followed suit.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:59 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Storm update, latest trends are kicking it further east, energy is progressing faster across the CONUS and flow is beginning to look a lot more progressive than a few days ago when the energy looked to close off and have time to drift northwest, I dont think that will be the case anymore, if anything we'll be brushed and maybe not affected at all, maybe just far eastern areas but we'll have to continue to watch it. CMC began catching onto this trend and GFS followed suit.

No doubt about it.  CMC, GFS Op and Ens, and European Op and ensembles have trended S and east of the BM.  Still some time but I am not excited at all with this threat at this time.  Like you said Tom too progressive.  

GFS series is the closest but mostly scrapes eastern sections:

GFS OP: 00z
 December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 <a href=December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_pr10" />

GFS OP 6z:
December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 <a href=December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_pr11" />
December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 <a href=December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_ms10" />

GFS ENS:
December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22

Euro OP:
December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 <a href=December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Ecmwf_19" />

Euro Ens:  00z Yesterday:
December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 <a href=December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Eps_sl11" />

Euro Ens 00z last night: Trend is not our friend with this one:
December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 <a href=December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Eps_sl10" />

And latest CMC has nada:

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 <a href=December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Cmc_pr10" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:48 am

@amugs wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The next 10 days look like a forecast for mid to late April. The nightmare isn't just continuing its getting worse.

CP I hear you my man, it really sucks but if we can endure this time period we will be able to put such behind us and move towards winter as it approaches in the calendar of the 21st. Hang in there bud and I will send the out the OTI extraction team out to pull you and snowman from the cave around the end of dec. Don't bite those if u will for they shall bring goods just like the three wise men.
Doc chime in here for your witty humor on what we are going to bring to CP - Franzillasense, white gold and ???

Mugsy, I love that "can do" attitude of yours!

As far as CP goes, I will mail him one of those little crystal balls filled with water and tiny white crystals that you shake up resembling a snowstorm.It's titled "A Hudson Valley Winter"! That ought to keep him satisfied until the end of December.But Mugsy, tell these telleconnections to get their act together quickly! Also, maybe CP can raise some Christmas cash selling his winter stock to Doc out in LI.I hear he's paying 10 cents on the dollar right now! Doc cleaned up last season,LOL!

32.7, 86%, 30.21R

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:29 am

6z GFS has some eye candy in the LR thread I posted, at least its something to look at. Do not look at if a die hard weenie.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 04, 2015 9:38 am

It's a straight zonal flow across the entire U.S. next week. A bunch of cut-off short waves. The OTS solution does not surprise me either. I hate rain in the winter anyway.

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_z500_vort_us_19

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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 04, 2015 4:46 pm

Dusting of snow last night here on campus. Higher elevations of about 2,000+ feet received anywhere from 2-5". Still very unusual start to winter here in the North Country and all the snow that did fall will likely be melted in a few days.
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