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All Tropics Talk Thread 1.0

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Do you think the 2013 Tropical Season will be an active one?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 10, 2013 2:29 pm

Lets use this thread to talk about anything tropics.

GFS has been consistent on showing 'something' develop in the southern Carib. by the end of this month or early June. The MJO has been pulsing in the Indian Ocean and this is likely the reason why the GFS is showing a tropical entity in the long range. I have a feeling this is going to dissipate on the model, but still worth mentioning.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 10, 2013 2:36 pm

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 10, 2013 8:02 pm

18z GFS hour 384

Wow. That is a hurricane. Luckily, wayy too far out to be worried about it.

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Post by Quietace Sat May 11, 2013 6:49 pm

8 GFS runs, 8 with this system, and 4 for 4 today. That's 2 days straight the GFS has this now. I was greatly impressed by the 18z, Especially how organized it had it prior to it interacting with Cuba. Still 10-12 days away though. Just something pretty to look at right now.....
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat May 11, 2013 7:26 pm

Still think its just noise...but we'll see
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon May 13, 2013 6:52 am

GFS lost the fantasy tropical storm. Saw that one coming...

If the MJO gets back into phase 1, we will have to watch around mid to late June in my opinion
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 16, 2013 12:02 pm

Just to update:

As expected, the GFS has lost the tropical storm for the end of this month. I suspected all along it had the wrong idea going. However, I do feel something may still be brewing for mid to late June. We will have to see what happens.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 17, 2013 12:19 am

Great video from Levi (tropical storm expert)
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Post by Snow88 Thu May 23, 2013 2:03 pm

Noaa is predicting a very active hurricane season for the atlantic

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130523_hurricaneoutlook_atlantic.html

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Post by Quietace Sun May 26, 2013 8:21 am

GFS again, wants to bring something out of the Caribbean and up the coast in Fantasy land
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Post by Snow88 Mon May 27, 2013 8:30 am

6z GFS has a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico that hits the Florida Panhandle at hour 264

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_6z/mrfloop2.html
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon May 27, 2013 9:39 am

I'm going to give this until the middle of the week. If other models begin showing it then ill put together a blog about it. Not yet convinced the GFS is right
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue May 28, 2013 9:14 am

Tropical system of some kind may develop next week and effect our area. Still too early to tell, but now the GGEM agrees with the GFS model in showing one. I wonder if the EURO will come around...

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue May 28, 2013 12:44 pm

The latest GFS looks interesting to me. There appears to be a series of waves, or mini-troughs, that will be diving into the heart of the country by next week. This is around the same time the MJO pulses into favorable phases for tropical development in the western Carib or in the Gulf of Mexico. If conditions remain favorable for convection to form a tropical storm, there could be a situation where one of these pieces of energy coming into the eastern U.S. "picks up" whatever storm could be in the southeastern U.S. at the time. This all comes down to a matter of timing with the trough and the storm, and whether or not the storm even develops like the GFS and GGEM suggest. Just something to watch for now. But a tropical-like system effecting the area in about 2 weeks time is certainly a possibility.
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Post by Quietace Thu May 30, 2013 9:00 pm

18z GFS would be very interesting for our area. The cyclone developing in the Caribbean is puled north by a piece of energy sitting up near the great lakes. As it does it eventually phases with that piece of energy and redevelops a low pressure near North/South Carolina . Brings all the winds and tropical moisture up the east coast. Every GFS run today had a different solution. 0z had it phase with a cold front and dissipate. 6z has the low pressure move into Louisiana as a cyclone then moves up and across the North east in a upside down L track, the 12z shunts it OTS, and the 18z is as explained above. Has been on the GFS for a long time now, if i remember almost 5 days....i believe its something to get more serous watching. As Frank said above, its all about timing with the trophs diving down. The GFS had 4 different solutions with the timing. We would need perfect timing to allow the energy to grab it (18z) or it could be shunted OTS like the 12z. This event but still a while out, but something to watch keenly.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 30, 2013 10:54 pm

There is definitely something brewing. I feel we will begin to see models hone in on a storm this weekend, even though some will show different placements of the system. I'll likely have a writeup on this over the weekend.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 31, 2013 7:16 am

00z GFS...

Put on your hard hats ladies and gentlemen. We could be in for a rough one.

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Post by Quietace Sat Jun 01, 2013 10:54 am

0z GGEM takes a 988mb Hurricane right into the Charleston Area.
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Then takes it inland and to the north
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 03, 2013 3:57 pm

Look for a blog release from me around 8pm
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Post by Quietace Mon Jun 03, 2013 5:35 pm

The GGEM has been very consistent the last couple days, not with the track, but in terms of developing a sub 990 low and then bringing us very heavy rainfall. Its timing of the cold front is very diffrent. It is probably the most extreme solution out of the model base right now
I think I'll throw a blog out too around 11 tonight.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 03, 2013 8:22 pm

Im going to wait until tomorrow morning. Got caught up tonight
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Post by amugs Mon Jun 03, 2013 8:52 pm

This is nuts if it comes to fruition and I guess the chat room will be immobilized!! Shocked I have been looking at the water vapor and convection maps/radar and boy it is juicy down there !
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 03, 2013 9:11 pm

Lol, chat room has not been used in awhile.
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Post by amugs Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:09 pm

Maybe time to activate it!! Very Happy

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Post by Quietace Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:09 pm

Here is a short blog on it. I just feel the GFS is 110% wrong on this one. But we will see. We will get a better consensus by Wednesday.

http://newjerseyweathercenter.blogspot.com/2013/06/tropical-system-to-effect-our-area-late.html
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