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Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:25 am

Models are trending colder for the Tuesday event. A backdoor cold front on Sunday will send our temps plummeting from 70 to the 40s for Monday and Tuesday. Strong confluence to our north - along with a strong High Pressure system - will try to keep enough cold air in place to have precipitation Tuesday morning to fall in the form of snow and/or ice.

Latest 12z gfs snow map:

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  Gfstotal.thumb.png.03cc37e1cfe8274dea842f212efedaf8

A primary low pressure system will cut to our west. However, due to the aforementioned confluence, a secondary tries to develop to our south and east. This is all based on timing. The quicker the precip moves in the better the odds of seeing accumulating snow in our area. The longer it takes, the more likely we are to see all rain.

Understand no matter what, precip will eventually turn to all rain. The STJ is very strong (see map below) and it will overrun the High to the north real quickly. Warming will especially intrude the mid-levels first before any other layer.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  Imageproxy.php?img=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgfs%2F2015122412%2Fgfs_uv250_us_20

A ton of time to watch this. I'll continue bringing updates. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:27 am

Dang Frank I was just gonna post the snow map in Banter but I guess its noteworthy, good to know crossing my fingers and toes really hard.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:28 am

The latest 12z CMC follows the GFS in showing a moderate front end snowfall event for the NYC Metro area. Consider this your Christmas Miracle.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  Imageproxy.php?img=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stormvistawxmodels.com%2Fimg%2Fcmc%2F20151224%2F12z%2FCMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f117

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:30 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The latest 12z CMC follows the GFS in showing a moderate front end snowfall event for the NYC Metro area. Consider this your Christmas Miracle.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  Imageproxy.php?img=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stormvistawxmodels.com%2Fimg%2Fcmc%2F20151224%2F12z%2FCMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f117

Don't get my started Frank unless its going to happen and with the way today is its so hard to believe (of course the weenie in me wants to jump out, especially so I can take my daughter sledding for first time), and it would have to snow damn hard to accumulate as the ground is still warm.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:33 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The latest 12z CMC follows the GFS in showing a moderate front end snowfall event for the NYC Metro area. Consider this your Christmas Miracle.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  Imageproxy.php?img=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stormvistawxmodels.com%2Fimg%2Fcmc%2F20151224%2F12z%2FCMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f117

Don't get my started Frank unless its going to happen and with the way today is its so hard to believe (of course the weenie in me wants to jump out, especially so I can take my daughter sledding for first time), and it would have to snow damn hard to accumulate as the ground is still warm.

This could be the testing grounds for the Conservatorys first measurement. This is the kind of storm the zookeeper would continually scroo up. They'd either not measure the front end snow at all, or they'd wait till the rain had compressed it from 3 inches to one inch and report 0.7. I hope we get to see just how well they were trained.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:37 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:34 am

1040mb High pressing south keeps the cold air locked in. It's been said multiple times, but this goes to show how even a temporary spike of positive heights near the EPO domain can work wonders.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_19


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Post by snow247 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:36 am

I'm just glad this is being shown 5 or 6 days away instead of 10+ days.
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Post by Guest Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:39 am

I was in the middle of posting my Christmas wishes in the banter thread when Frank posted the new thread about the 29th. Dare I say For a little while I had flashbacks to Boxing Day. I am all of a sudden transformed and in the Christmas spirit big time. Thank you Frank!!! cheers santa rendeer santa cheers rendeer santa cheers santa santa rendeer cheers santa santa santa santa rendeer rendeer rendeer cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers drunken drunken

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:41 am

syosnow94 wrote:I was in the middle of posting my Christmas wishes in the banter thread when Frank posted the new thread about the 29th. Dare I say For a little while I had flashbacks to Boxing Day.  I am all of a sudden transformed and in the Christmas spirit big time.  Thank you Frank!!! cheers santa rendeer santa cheers rendeer santa cheers santa santa rendeer cheers santa santa santa santa rendeer rendeer rendeer cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers drunken drunken

Shows nothing for LI syo sorry lol, nah its go crash cold so far south we all get dumped on : )
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:49 am

syosnow94 wrote:I was in the middle of posting my Christmas wishes in the banter thread when Frank posted the new thread about the 29th. Dare I say For a little while I had flashbacks to Boxing Day.  I am all of a sudden transformed and in the Christmas spirit big time.  Thank you Frank!!! cheers santa rendeer santa cheers rendeer santa cheers santa santa rendeer cheers santa santa santa santa rendeer rendeer rendeer cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers drunken drunken

Merry Christmas!! That Boxing Day storm was wild..we got almost 3 feet of snow...I remember because I was to have a house full of people instead we had a house full of food and just the 3 of us..lol santa rendeer
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:51 am

CMC doesn't make much sense no snow except way up north. Well not NO snow but nothing like GFS which was warmer than the CMC.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  Cmc_sn10
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:54 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:1040mb High pressing south keeps the cold air locked in. It's been said multiple times, but this goes to show how even a temporary spike of positive heights near the EPO domain can work wonders.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_19


Oh no I understand about that, just hard to believe there was the best bet of NOTHING until at least mid Jan now we at least have something to track in the 5 day. Why does the CMC show the heaviest swath so much further north than the GFS?
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:54 am

Miracle shall be and 2" rule for all the winter nay nays !! Boòoooom!!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:59 am

@amugs wrote:Miracle shall be and 2" rule for all the winter nay nays !! Boòoooom!!

2 inches come on mugs lets shoot higher than that!
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:04 pm

Jman get with it man this Frickin pattern is absolute absurd and to get frozen precip is a miracle and a boom. You'll be doing this when WHITE GOLD IS falling and accumulating party shout

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:08 pm

GEFS HELLO
Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f114
Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f120

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:09 pm

GEFS Hanging in like last night 2 runs in a row good Frickin sign imho few more runs.

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:10 pm

2-4 front end thump,3-6ish lhv, nwnj !

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:13 pm

@amugs wrote:Miracle shall be and 2" rule for all the winter nay nays !! Boòoooom!!

I love you but, what the F are you talking about?

If your referencing the December prognosticator which was exposed as a total fraud last year, and I admit that as the one who first noticed it several years ago, it's less than 3 inches in December = a bust winter and 6 inches or more = great winter.

The reason I used those paramters is because there has not been a December in NYC with between 3.1 - 5.9 inches of snow since 1984/85. Very odd since the December average is 4.8 in NYC for the 30 year and 5.5 inches for the 147 year average.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:18 pm

The coast most likely to see no snow correct
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:23 pm

10/4 mugs lol
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Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:24 pm

Well, as Gabby Hayes would say (look him up youngsters) "I'll be hornswoggled!!!"

Out of the midst of this miserable mild gloomy Christmas Eve, a ray of hope for something more than a snow flurry! Stay tuned!!!
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:42 pm

and I'm set to be in Puerto Rico during this time...

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:56 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:and I'm set to be in Puerto Rico during this time...

Oh did we call this earlier did we not?! Sorry man!
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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:15 pm

Well nice runs today so far by the models let's see what the euro shows but it's pretty amazing that were actually tracking a storm in this setup. thought we have to wait till late January for any snow. As far as the storm goes it looks like it weakens and opens up and just stalls near the eastern Great Lakes I would expect it to trend colder in the coming days. The setup kind of reminds me of last years swfe.
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