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Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015

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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 26, 2015 9:48 pm

For whatever it's worth, 00z NAM is colder for this event.
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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 26, 2015 11:06 pm

NAM significant sleet just north of NYC.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 Image10
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Dec 26, 2015 11:09 pm

Only problem is it is going to be so warm before it comes that the ground will still be warm. Going to be one of those things where you need to pull an all-nighter to see evidence of frozen precip unless you are in the HV or north & west until it changes to rain.

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Post by Math23x7 Sat Dec 26, 2015 11:47 pm

I wonder if this is similar to the January 18th Ice Storm from earlier this year.  The one that caught many people, myself included, off guard.  For those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, here is the link to page 2 of the observation thread (scroll down to algae888's post at 8:27 AM 1/18 where ice reports begin)

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t423p25-sunday-january-18th-rain-storm

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Post by snow247 Sun Dec 27, 2015 12:12 am

I remember that, it was quite icy that morning up here in the HV.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:15 am

Going to be a fine line where the freezing sets up, and it won't last long. Soundings have a warmer layer at about 700 mb and freezing at the surface. That would mean freezing rain for most, I'd rather have sleet or snow than that! Good news is it happens overnight, and unless you are out at 5 am, it should be raining by rush hour. Rockland county and north and west of that are in trouble though, could see significant icing.

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:11 am

This is the just the invitation to the big event come the latter part of next week - Frank is writing about it now!!
Zoo is on her game with the soundings - lots of warm air noses in at the mid levels that is going to make this icy dicey I think we starty as snow as snow in most NNJ and L:HV then the changeover happens for us here and stays mostly frozen in NW NJ and then HJV areas.

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Post by snow247 Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:29 am

Several hours of frozen precip on the RGEM from NYC on north, either freezing rain or sleet.
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Post by snow247 Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:30 am

RGEM

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15
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Post by snow247 Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:36 am

Sleet

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 Image11
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:41 am

Nice maps and I love those colors on teh RGEM - ice ice baby!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 27, 2015 12:08 pm

Here is my 1st call snow map for Tuesday. A final call, if necessary, will be issued tomorrow afternoon.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 1st_call_december_29th

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Post by Guest Sun Dec 27, 2015 12:34 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Here is my 1st call snow map for Tuesday. A final call, if necessary, will be issued tomorrow afternoon.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 1st_call_december_29th

Wow what a change in 3 days!!! Not even going to bother heading up into the catskiils for 1". Hope this is not a trend going forward.

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Post by snow247 Sun Dec 27, 2015 2:53 pm

delete


Last edited by snow247 on Sun Dec 27, 2015 3:49 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Dec 27, 2015 3:31 pm

kick the tires and light the fires

WARREN:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY NEAR INTERSTATE 80.

* HAZARD TYPES...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1
INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION BEGINS SOMETIME BETWEEN 7 PM AND
11 PM MONDAY AND MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OR SLEET AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN BETWEEN
5 AM AND 7 AM TUESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
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Post by snow247 Sun Dec 27, 2015 4:06 pm

Advisories up for everyone north of the city away from the coast.
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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 27, 2015 11:07 pm

NWS Upton has a good thought here. Well played so far IMO

THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN HERE IS ALL MODELS HISTORICALLY ERODE THE DAMMING HIGH AND HENCE SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TOO QUICKLY...BUT GIVEN IN A CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN ON A WHOLE...NOT WILLING TO MAKE TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
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Post by snow247 Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:30 am

RGEM

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:07 am

Boy we might be on the warm side of this but shes a beaut.

Visible satellite.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Satellite/Visible.aspx
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:37 am

12z RGEM has some pretty serious icing inland .25-.50 frzr. 1-2 inches sleet, this will be a all ice event it looks like not good for driving.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:40 am

NWS just added southern Westchester to the WWA too, not Bronx south though, all way down to coastal CT too.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:43 am

I am thinking the cold air might not lift out as quickly as they think, am thinking more ice than expected. At least it will be off hours for traffic, but I could still see many accidents with people being caught off guard with the warm weather we have had. All it takes is a trace as we saw with that system last year.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

CTZ009-010-NJZ004-103-104-NYZ071-282115-
/O.EXB.KOKX.WW.Y.0017.151229T0100Z-151229T1100Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
350 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8
PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES IN
 CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN NEW YORK...BERGEN
 AND EASTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEST TO
 EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN
 SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WITH THE MAIN
 THREAT BEING TO ELEVATED SURFACES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
 ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:45 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Boy we might be on the warm side of this but shes a beaut.

Visible satellite.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Satellite/Visible.aspx

Your not kidding!

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 Pmsl
Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 Latest

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:48 pm

cold air sinking south at the surface, 925mb and 850's(just south of NYC at the moment, but 700mb is warm because its already a strong mid-upper level closed low. Icing could be bad for N HV, and NW NJ.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 925mb_sf
Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 850mb_sf
Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 5 700mb_sf

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:07 pm

Im not as concerned for NJ, but the models show cold air at the surface hanging on quite long from the northern HV northward. This will cause some serious icing problems. For the rest of us, easterly flow off the warm ocean will turn us to rain very quickly if not starting as rain.
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