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Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015

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sroc4
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:35 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Im not as concerned for NJ, but the models show cold air at the surface hanging on quite long from the northern HV northward. This will cause some serious icing problems. For the rest of us, easterly flow off the warm ocean will turn us to rain very quickly if not starting as rain.

What do you think will be the furthest south fringe of the HV? I am probably too close to the coast (though a bit inland) for this to be a major issue, but then again these things are usually nowcasting.
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Post by Dtone Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:NWS just added southern Westchester to the WWA too, not Bronx south though, all way down to coastal CT too.

Even though they expanded it down to the City line I doubt there will be much impacts unless your well N&W. I cant imgaine any real ice issues in places like New Rochelle, Mt Vernon etc.
We'd have to cold ground already in place when temps are so marginal.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Dec 28, 2015 3:00 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Im not as concerned for NJ, but the models show cold air at the surface hanging on quite long from the northern HV northward. This will cause some serious icing problems. For the rest of us, easterly flow off the warm ocean will turn us to rain very quickly if not starting as rain.

What do you think will be the furthest south fringe of the HV?  I am probably too close to the coast (though a bit inland) for this to be a major issue, but then again these things are usually nowcasting.

Yonkers probably sleet/snow to start but youll go over quickly, further north is where im worried about.
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Post by snow247 Mon Dec 28, 2015 3:06 pm

Saw trucks out pre-treating some roads in my county, especially in the northern half.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Dec 28, 2015 3:19 pm

39° here, showers starting to move north in NJ, snow showers in NW NJ heading NE, not sure if it is hitting the ground. My humidity reading here is at 58%

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Post by snow247 Mon Dec 28, 2015 3:22 pm

Member on the other board reporting sleet in Somerset County, NJ.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 28, 2015 3:37 pm

32.3, 65%, 30.33 R

Sleet on radar just west of me.Gonna be a rough night if this thing starts soon, already at freezing here.
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:02 pm

37* here. can start to feel the difference in the air from earlier this morning
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Post by Vinnydula Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:13 pm

Temp dropped from 41 to 36 in a hour
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:20 pm

WWA now saying up to one inch sleet here in southern WC and a trace of ice, glad it be starting after I get home that doesn't sound very safe to drive on.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:21 pm

WOW 1/2 inche ice WSW for parts of MA, yikes!

LOCATIONS...EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION.

* TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SLEET BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
THEN EXPECT SLEET TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BY MID TO LATE
TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION. WHETHER OR NOT THIS OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...IF THIS OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH POCKETS OF SCATTERED DOWN TREE LIMBS/POWER OUTAGES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS THE REASONING THAT A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
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Post by snow247 Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:22 pm

Remember to use the mPING app to submit and view live observations.
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Post by aiannone Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:53 pm

37.5* with a DP of 23* here on the North Shore.
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Post by aiannone Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:57 pm

850s are almost above freezing for NYC otherwise all other layers (700mb, 925mb) are below freezing so sleet likely.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:07 pm

Sleet and rain mix out here, light.
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Post by snow247 Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:19 pm

Final call

Excuse any typos

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 6 5681b50b156fe_12-28-2015FINALCALL.png.5f7a4ba71630304dd268759ce1e45d70


Last edited by snow247 on Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:24 pm

@snow247 wrote:Final call

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 6 5681b50b156fe_12-28-2015FINALCALL.png.5f7a4ba71630304dd268759ce1e45d70

I like it. Totally agree

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:24 pm

I don't have time to make a final impact map. I don't see this storm causing much trouble for NYC and the metro area. According to the EURO, the freezing line is already north of the lower HV by 4am. There will be a 2-3 hour period of freezing rain or sleet, but it'll be washed away by the rain when most of us wake up in the morning. Those in NW NJ and the HV should still be careful. I can see decent sleet accumulation in those areas still.

Here is EURO showing the warming of all levels by 4am.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 6 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21

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Post by snow247 Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:40 pm

Latest HRRR changes the city over to rain by 3AM. NWNJ, LHV, SWCT by 6AM.
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Post by dad4twoboys Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:54 pm

@snow247 wrote:Remember to use the mPING app to submit and view live observations.

I love that App
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:01 pm

@snow247 wrote:Latest HRRR changes the city over to rain by 3AM. NWNJ, LHV, SWCT by 6AM.

Yea, these are the areas that could run into trouble on the roads in the morning. Hence why I'm working from home tomorrow. My office is in Hackettstown, NJ...

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Post by RJB8525 Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:10 pm

Dropped 1 degree, 36* rain and sleet just started
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Post by billg315 Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:30 pm

Unmistakeable sound of sleet pounding against my window. I think some rain mixed in as well (or is it rain pounding against my window with some sleet mixed in? Anyway). Usually I dread the sound of sleet as it often means snow is turning over gradually to rain and the sooner I hear sleet the less snow we'll get. But given that this is primarily a rain storm and I've been without any winter precip this year, I actually got kind of excited when I heard the sleet this time.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:41 pm

Moderate sleet falling here in Cranford

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:50 pm

Sleet is impressive right now

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 6 Inxr1Kphla_h

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