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Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:18 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:and I'm set to be in Puerto Rico during this time...

The setup favors rain over snow at the moment. Probably no more than an inch or two with some ice. We'll see if there's a colder trend these next couple of days.

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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:24 pm

I'm hearing the euro is on board its ejecting the storm faster and it's colder this run can anyone confirm
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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:27 pm

Euro has snow for everyone before the changeover areas north of New York City are going to get a lot of snow if this is correct
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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:29 pm

That high pressure never moves East its parked to the west of maine that's what I'm hearing so far
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Post by Tzvi732 Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:31 pm

i think were getting ahead of our selfs. were not getting more then an inch. and plus we i am in ocean county nj were not gonna see one flake of snow

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:38 pm

@Tzvi732 wrote:i think were getting ahead of our selfs. were not getting more then an inch. and plus we i am in ocean county nj were not gonna see one flake of snow

Where is anyone on this forum forecasting more than an inch? And yes, central NJ and points south will have a difficult time seeing wintry weather in this setup.

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Post by chief7 Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:42 pm

Not everybody on this board lives in Ocean County

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Post by Tzvi732 Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:43 pm

all im saying is lets not get all excited till we have a STORM

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:48 pm

The EURO is better than its 00z run. Ejects the energy faster while cold air is in place. This threat highly favors those North of NYC for snow accumulation, but brief period of wintry weather is still fair game from interior CNJ on North. 

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2015 2:09 pm

Ok gee look who scores for the first storm of this season and all of them last year BOSTON!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2015 2:18 pm

@Tzvi732 wrote:all im saying is lets not get all excited till we have a STORM

We track storms, its in our blood to get a little excited (some more than others , lol) to hear snow possible when we were thinking 3-5 weeks down the line before any sight of it. If it doesn't happen we wait for the next, how it goes, nothing wrong with getting a bit giddy with 72 degrees here today.
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 24, 2015 3:04 pm

My concern for this event is that SSTs are running several degrees above normal due to the anomalously warm temperatures we have been seeing. With that it mind, once a southerly flow gets going from the cutting primary low, warm air will surge in off the ocean. Only way we have a good chance is if the HP holds on until the secondary takes over and the flow becomes Northerly or Northeasterly. Any type of southerly wind and it's rain up to Northern CT.
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 24, 2015 3:57 pm

Updated forecast from Upton, NY
Monday NightA chance of snow and sleet after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

TuesdayRain, snow, and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 24, 2015 4:52 pm

This is gonna be a Feb 4-5, 2014 repeat, ugh....
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 24, 2015 4:58 pm

And thats the cold scenario, maybe id take just rain over 2" of snow to ice to rain. Hate that.
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 24, 2015 5:19 pm

The strong high will be centered over New England...and in a good position for cold air damming to set
up and supply cold low level air to the region late Monday night into Tuesday. Model guidance has trended colder aloft...with 700 mb-8 temperatures remaining below 0c at least until afternoon...when strong
S-SW flow at 700 mb-8 should bring in enough warm air aloft. With low temperatures from the middle 20s inland...to Lower/Middle 30s along the coast and in NYC metropolitan...most areas should at least see some
mixed precipitation late Monday night/Tuesday morning before a change to rain by Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. However...if warmer air aloft is delayed...interior sections may have a shot at seeing the first significant snowfall of the season...while areas just to the south...including coastal CT to just northwest of NYC...could have a period
of accumulating snow before a change to rain. Have highlighted potential for significant snowfall for interior sections only
at this time.
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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 24, 2015 6:03 pm

Nws disco...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ON MON 20-25 DEG COLDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY...WITH ONLY UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND IN A GOOD POSITION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING TO SET UP AND SUPPLY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER ALOFT...WITH H7-8 TEMPS REMAINING BELOW 0C AT LEAST UNTIL AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONG S-SW FLOW AT H7-8 SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH LOW TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND...TO LOWER/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NYC METRO...MOST AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS DELAYED...INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY HAVE A SHOT AT SEEING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...WHILE AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH...INCLUDING COASTAL CT TO JUST NW OF NYC...COULD HAVE A PD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS ONLY ATTM.
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Post by HectorO Thu Dec 24, 2015 6:08 pm

14th-18th of January I'll be in FL.
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 6:11 pm

Don't poo poo this here, any accumulating snow is significant 8n this pattern so we'll take it and go on to bigger and better things. Umm a week ago many were jumping off the cliff. Come on now would u look at this thank u sinberia, u figure it out!

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 2 Imageproxy.php?img=https%3A%2F%2Fi.gyazo.com%2F10ca4812fa832cf54ecb8fdd78d88728

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Post by Guest Thu Dec 24, 2015 7:05 pm

35 degrees and cold rain from the Tappan Zee south and east. very exciting.

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Post by Vinnydula Thu Dec 24, 2015 7:48 pm

I'm excited. So much better then 70 on Christmas
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 9:59 pm

syosnow94 wrote:35 degrees and cold rain from the Tappan Zee south and east.   very exciting.

What are u looking at??  This is an opportunity in an otherwise bs pattern to get some positive and momentum going forward. A front end thump is fine by me at this stage. You can have this pattern we r having now and be miserable all wintwr, it ain't happening .
SREFS look good , great hp position
Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 2 Imageproxy.php?img=http%3A%2F%2Fmag.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_mslp

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by snow247 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:06 pm

GFS looking very good so far.
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:10 pm

Okay hello gfs 0z showing a interior crush job:
OfTues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f102Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f105
Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f108

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:12 pm

Faster ejection of th elp, hp colder and noses a tad further south and bazinga, 2" plus for TTN north 4+ fir I 80 north 6" hv

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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