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Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015

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Post by snow247 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:16 pm

Hi.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_us_22
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:17 pm

0z GFS
Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 10391610
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Post by snow247 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:18 pm

On the lastest GFS anyone north of the city stays all frozen.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:22 pm

This certainly seems to be trending. Watch closely. To me it looks like a front end 1-4" to up to 1" of sleet and ice followed by cold rain for the I95 corridor. Snow to ice possible significant accumulations northern HV, poconos ect. All snow and heavy north. Like I said Feb 2, 2014 redux, secondary reformation just to our south but by then WWA changes most of us to ice then rain. Big nasty slop storm if it verifies as progged. Shovel it while its snow. Made the mistake of waiting until after it changed over last time, ugh...
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Post by snow247 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:24 pm

12"+ for the Hudson Highlands north of the city on the GFS.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:24 pm

Alex cant see the scale in that photo, whats the purple in CNJ represent and is that a weenie map that misrepresents ice and sleet (which will be a big factor here) as snow?
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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:24 pm

It redevelops off the Virginia capes much further south just like many indiviual emsemble members have been showing. Locks the cold air in. The s and e trend continues


Last edited by algae888 on Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by snow247 Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:26 pm

Hopefully it doesn't trend too far south lol
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:27 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Alex cant see the scale in that photo, whats the purple in CNJ represent and is that a weenie map that misrepresents ice and sleet (which will be a big factor here) as snow?

Yea that is the weenie map haha. This is the real map. Though it always has trouble distinguishing LI and NYC as a landmass, hence the sharp cutoff from NNJ east so it's likely a bit higher.Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 12431610
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:28 pm

^Where have you seen that? Ive seen it popping off the Delmarva/NJ coast. Even if it was further south it needs to bomb out and rapidly stregnthen to overcome warming from the primary which is why much of the area goes to rain even after the weak secondary if off the coast. This needs a lot to go right to be a classic miller B to slam the I-95 corridor, right now its a slopfest for us and an interior hit.
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:28 pm

HOLY CMC!
Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 Cmc_ms11
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:29 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Alex cant see the scale in that photo, whats the purple in CNJ represent and is that a weenie map that misrepresents ice and sleet (which will be a big factor here) as snow?

Yea that is the weenie map haha. This is the real map. Though it always has trouble distinguishing LI and NYC as a landmass, hence the sharp cutoff from NNJ east so it's likely  a bit higher.Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 12431610

Yikes a lot of ice and sleet involved here. This one is gonna be ugly.
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:29 pm

This is a great trend and I do not see it going much further but awesome 4 run sin a row now peeps, let's loom t9 see if the gefs hold or continue the trend

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:30 pm

For u tom but further north it looks to be all frozen , xmass miracle like.boxer day

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:33 pm

850's -4 to -8 during the storm for nnj and hv.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:52 pm

@amugs wrote:For u tom but further north it looks to be all frozen , xmass miracle like.boxer day

There's going to be a large layer of mid layer of warmth involved, so for north, frozen yes, snow yes initally, but a lot of sleet and ice as well, this will be a nasty storm unless your far north in NYS where you could remain all snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:55 pm

Hours 102-111 is when the heaviest precip arrives on the 00z GFS.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f102

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f105

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f108

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f111

For NYC, 925mb temps are cold through 108 hours

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 Gfs_t925_nyc_19

850s right on the border at 108 hours

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 Gfs_t850_nyc_19

SSTs are running above normal. Winds coming out of the east will make this event especially difficult for the coast and LI.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_uv10m_nyc_19

For whatever it's worth, ptype maps on Wxbwll show a mix to rain for NYC. So there's a disconnect there with the snow maps. I think it's important to keep the easterly winds in mind, and the warming mid levels. I think the accumulating snow will be constrained to NW NJ and the HV st this moment. We'll see....

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 25, 2015 12:05 am

This is the most accurate snow map. About 1 inch for NYC. Just north cashes in.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 567cce712b44b_December252015120432AMEST.thumb.png.f60b70c119831a3a8007fd13ba195638

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 25, 2015 12:07 am

BTW CMC shows mostly frozen precip I-95 north to light rain but its very quick burst of snow to a long period of sleet/ice to light rain. Dangerous and messy like ive been saying if it plays out this way.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 25, 2015 5:29 am

GFS and EURO seem to have trended warmer this morning.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 25, 2015 8:02 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:GFS and EURO seem to have trended warmer this morning.

That would be par for the course.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 25, 2015 8:08 am

6Z GFS ENS - not as far south with cold air but still a good run

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f90

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f96

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 3 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f102

All Rain here but A VERY GOOD front end thump
http://img-03.stormvistawxmodels.com/4ace596f61d3bd53cbb1253f3ba32b56/gfs-ens/20151225/06z/GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f108.png

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Post by billg315 Fri Dec 25, 2015 8:24 am

I'll throw this out there: water temp this morning is 50* off Sandy Hook and 55* off Cape May. Normally this time of year it would be in the low 40s and in a cold Dec maybe the upper 30s. I think any storm with an easterly flow (which is about all of them) is going to draw in a ton of warm air off the ocean. I think it's going to be very difficult to get a big snow event (except far N and W areas) until the water temps drop to more normal levels.
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Post by Guest Fri Dec 25, 2015 9:12 am

@billg315 wrote:I'll throw this out there: water temp this morning is 50* off Sandy Hook and 55* off Cape May. Normally this time of year it would be in the low 40s and in a cold Dec maybe the upper 30s. I think any storm with an easterly flow (which is about all of them) is going to draw in a ton of warm air off the ocean. I think it's going to be very difficult to get a big snow event (except far N and W areas) until the water temps drop to more normal levels.

COULD NOT AGREE MORE!!!! No chance of accumulations from this type of event here on the coast. 😢 😢 😢 Still nice to hear talk of snow but not gonna happen here at the coast. I plan on taking my kids to my parents house up in Ulster County in the Catskills Monday night thru Wednesday. Elevation 2000' We should do real well up there!!!!!!!!! Very Happy Very Happy

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Post by Guest Fri Dec 25, 2015 9:17 am

DOC AND CP!!!!! You're going to get the goods from this one it looks like!! But I will still find a way to get more white gold then you by driving up into the mountains!!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing tongue tongue tongue tongue tongue

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