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Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015

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sroc4
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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 25, 2015 9:20 am

syosnow94 wrote:DOC AND CP!!!!!  You're going to get the goods from this one it looks like!!  But I will still find a way to get more white gold then you by driving up into the mountains!!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing tongue tongue tongue tongue tongue

LOL, you storm chaser!

Yep, this could be a classic old timey "Areas N and W of the City" snow event.You'll be in the sweet spot up there.Good luck!
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Dec 25, 2015 9:21 am

The S & E curse is over! party

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 25, 2015 9:24 am

LOL, Janet.With our luck it will warm up at the last minute and we will get more rain than the S and E boys.
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Post by Snow88 Fri Dec 25, 2015 9:57 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:The S & E curse is over!   party

Maybe, maybe not. Still a few days to track this Very Happy
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 25, 2015 10:12 am

I wouldn't say S and E is over lots more to track and winter I believe the coast is going to get a really big one this year
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:01 am

GFS not nearly as good as yesterdays runs but still brings ice and snow to NWNJ and LHV then we go over to rain as per 12z

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f87

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f90

Our HP slides off the coast faster unlike yesterdays runs where it held on - storm cuts into the lakes 100's miles difference.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:20 am

Well at least i wont have to shovel slop. On the downside no snow until the next one most likely if this trend keeps up.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:21 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:I'll throw this out there: water temp this morning is 50* off Sandy Hook and 55* off Cape May. Normally this time of year it would be in the low 40s and in a cold Dec maybe the upper 30s. I think any storm with an easterly flow (which is about all of them) is going to draw in a ton of warm air off the ocean. I think it's going to be very difficult to get a big snow event (except far N and W areas) until the water temps drop to more normal levels.

COULD NOT AGREE MORE!!!!  No chance of accumulations from this type of event here on the coast.  😢  😢  😢  Still nice to hear talk of snow but not gonna happen here at the coast.  I plan on taking my kids to my parents house up in Ulster County in the Catskills Monday night thru Wednesday.  Elevation 2000'  We should do real well up there!!!!!!!!! Very Happy Very Happy

Agree as well..since we live right off the bay..I think we might head to the hills and visit Grandma and Pa for a day or 2...
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:28 am

Becoming obvious the HP to the north is trending weaker / and staying further north. This means cold air is escaping sooner on the models and virtually only places into NW NJ and HV see wintry weather.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:34 am

Yesterday the HP was modeled to be at 45N. Now it's closer to 60N. This difference in latitude makes all the difference between frozen or warm precip solutions for NYC Metro. Unless models trend back to their original solution with the HP, this threat is likely done except for NW NJ and HV. As suspected yesterday, the STJ is overpowering the pattern.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 Gfs_uv250_us_15

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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 25, 2015 12:03 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Well at least i wont have to shovel slop. On the downside no snow until the next one most likely if this trend keeps up.

Amen, Brother! Nothing worse than slop with the weight of heavy cement.I'll take 2 inches of soaking rain or a foot plus of powdery, fluffy snow.

I'm in the HV so I may see some front end slop but it looks to disappear quick on Tuesday.
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Post by Dtone Fri Dec 25, 2015 12:18 pm

@billg315 wrote:I'll throw this out there: water temp this morning is 50* off Sandy Hook and 55* off Cape May. Normally this time of year it would be in the low 40s and in a cold Dec maybe the upper 30s. I think any storm with an easterly flow (which is about all of them) is going to draw in a ton of warm air off the ocean. I think it's going to be very difficult to get a big snow event (except far N and W areas) until the water temps drop to more normal levels.

i been concerned about that going forward, headed into Jan the water temps are at Nov levels. Ive seen low to mid 50s off Coney Island still.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 25, 2015 2:06 pm

Yea the HP is sliding off to the east too fast allowing the primary to cut and the secondary to form too late. Big snowstorm far north, Ottawa Canada should do very well. Nearly all rain here.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 25, 2015 5:05 pm

18z GFS is maybe a tad bit cooler but still mostly rain and any frozen precip will be short and washed away. This always was a far interior storm. Merry Christmas everybody.
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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 25, 2015 10:49 pm

Good point by meteorologist Joe Cioffi
NAM Model Suggests Major Ice Storm Possibility?
Dec 25, 2015 joestradamus Joe's Forecast 0

NAM Model Suggests Major Ice Storm Possibility


We posted earlier today regarding the next weather event and all the models were warmer and left. This was because the primary low is much deeper and much further left than what models were indicating yesterday and last night. Faced with this the obvious reaction from a forecast standpoint that the warmer look means less snow and ice and more rain especially in southern areas. Well there is one other possibility which the NAM strongly points tonight.

Tonight’s model run takes the primary low even further left. In fact it is far enough left that such a track would allow cold air to wedge down southward from New England. This is why the nam is showing a large area of sleet and/or freezing rain extending all the way down to Pennsylvania.


The NAM implication of a primary so far left is for the possibility of a major icing event for the northeast including a period of icing for the coast. Now we are not ready to buy this completely but we will watch the other models as they begin to come out shortly. If the left trend continues on those models it could make for an interesting Monday night and Tuesday for the northeast. I will be posting an update on this after midnight tonight including a new video on this as we focus on the short range developments.
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Post by snow247 Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:07 pm

GFS looks slighly colder, but barely a difference from the last run, some snow, sleet and ice to rain for interior, and a short period of ice to rain for coast.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Dec 26, 2015 7:56 am

This is nothing, a strong easterly fetch off a VERY warm ocean means a very quick changeover to rain. NAM looks warm this morning like the GFS but even further north, HP gets dislodged and the storm is slower I believe is why the soln is now further north. No storm chances in the forseeable future but we will see cold. Nails in the coffin for this one imo. Quick burst of snow/sleet to rain. No big deal.
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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 26, 2015 8:31 am

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 Image10

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 Image11
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Dec 26, 2015 9:04 am

@snow247 wrote:Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 Image10

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 Image11

No storm for a vast majority of the area... Next..
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 26, 2015 9:09 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@snow247 wrote:Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 Image10

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 Image11

No storm for a vast majority of the area... Next..

A snooze fest. If I actually thought we'd see the 2-4 inches they post on the map I'd be semi-interested. This setup to me says, trace of snow, to freezing rain to cold rain. No thanks
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 26, 2015 9:24 am

I'm concerned about a 4-6 hour period of snow then ice for the lower HV Tuesday morning. Precip moves in between 1-2am with the changeover to rain not likely until 7-8am.

GFS valid 1am:

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 Gfs_ptype_slp_nyc_13

GFS valid 7am:

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 Gfs_ptype_slp_nyc_14

There's still 3 days worth of model runs for this to trend differently, but just be aware of the slick morning conditions on Tuesday from NW NJ to lower HV.


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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 26, 2015 12:03 pm

Decided to quickly throw together my first map of the winter.

Here is my first call for this storm. Really not a big deal unless you live near I-84 or north. But as Frank said still 3 days worth of model runs, so we'll see what happens.

Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 12-29-10
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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 26, 2015 3:52 pm

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
601 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING AN ACCUMULATING WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN. THE PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS SLIGHT
AT THIS TIME...BUT THE FIRST ACCUMULATING WINTRY MIX OF THE
SEASON HAS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE A HAZARDOUS TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Dec 26, 2015 6:13 pm

NWS as of 4:09 this afternoon, from Upton

"Then as a cutoff low lifts NE from the middle Mississippi Valley into
the upper Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday... ridging aloft will
give way to deep layer SW flow/warm air advection aloft...with precipitation developing from Monday evening and continuing into Tuesday as a weak secondary low develops along a warm front in the middle Atlantic region and moves toward the region on Tuesday. There does not appear to be much in the
way of downstream blocking aloft...but even so the GFS solution
has been mostly rejected since it appears way too quick to
dislodge the strong surface high. European model (ecmwf) many even be too quick to do this...and so sided with a blend of the ECMWF/sref/NAM. Those
latter solutions feature a deeper/more persistent surface-based cold
layer...but the GFS may be correct in the sense of dynamic cooling
via upward motion overcoming warm air advection to delay arrival of an 700 mb-8 warm layer aloft.

With this in mind...for inland sections have forecast mainly
snow/sleet at the onset Monday night...changing to freezing
rain/sleet well north/west of NYC...and then rain by late morning
or midday on Monday. Areas closer to the coast should see more in the
way of rain...but beginning as a period of mixed precipitation. Most
likely scenario is for about an inch of snow/sleet accumulation
well inland...to a coating of accumulation for areas just
north/west of NYC and along the CT coast...to no accumulation for
NYC/Long Island. Areas well inland may also see up to a tenth of
an inch ice accumulation...mostly along the I-84 corridor and also
in northern reaches of New London County CT.

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 26, 2015 7:18 pm

Latest forecast from Upton.

Snow
Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 StormTotalSnowFcst

Ice
Tues Dec 29th Event - Last Winter Storm of 2015  - Page 4 StormTotalIceFcst
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