January 2016 Observations and Discussions
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Thanks Doc.
It felt like Spring compared to other mornings.
The snow is melting fast. UGH !
It felt like Spring compared to other mornings.
The snow is melting fast. UGH !
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Good morning.. cloudy and 38*
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
A tick west again on 12z NAM, hr 48 now showing snow in eastern NE.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrf48.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrf48.html
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
12z GFS also ticked west but there is no phasing at all with the northern stream. I think the northern stream energy could bring some snow showers to us on Friday, hence the scroll.
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Switched this from the other thread. It's more of a January observation than anything.
NYC is on track for it's warmest January ever with over 20 inches of snow. An interesting stat I picked up from someone on another site. This looks to be a lock.
Year Snow Avg Temp
2011....36.0"....29.7
1925....27.4"....28.4
2016....27.2"....33.7...through the 26th
1996....26.1"....30.5
1923....24.5"....30.0
1935....23.6"....28.9
1877....20.5"....27.7
1978....20.3.....28.0
NYC is on track for it's warmest January ever with over 20 inches of snow. An interesting stat I picked up from someone on another site. This looks to be a lock.
Year Snow Avg Temp
2011....36.0"....29.7
1925....27.4"....28.4
2016....27.2"....33.7...through the 26th
1996....26.1"....30.5
1923....24.5"....30.0
1935....23.6"....28.9
1877....20.5"....27.7
1978....20.3.....28.0
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS also ticked west but there is no phasing at all with the northern stream. I think the northern stream energy could bring some snow showers to us on Friday, hence the scroll.
Doesnt it show later phasing hence the 980s low that blows up east of New England and absorbtion of the GL low? I think its been trending towards earlier interaction showing a more amped and negatively tilted vort and now showing the phase occuring near our latitude. Too late for us yes but I dont think its out of the question for the trend to continue and earlier interaction to lead to a further south developing low possibly skirting NJ, NYC and LI (and SNE) similar to the last storm but an opposite situation in where instead of a further south slider its a late forming north storm where we want as early interaction as possible. May be grasping at straws here but I think its not out of the realm of possibility.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Example of what Im talking about...
0z GFS
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279274
12z GFS
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279273
Much closer to ze phase...
0z GFS
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279274
12z GFS
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279273
Much closer to ze phase...
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Holy the euro was close to a phase for us - just need the ridge to hold a bit more and the NJ to dive a little quicker and we could see a minor event for most of our board members. Still have what 24-36 hours left - jeez this woudl be a fricking coup again by the NW trend!!!
IF it dives faster and phases earlier like by OBX or VA capes then it could be real interesting - weenie in my hoping for such of course
IF it dives faster and phases earlier like by OBX or VA capes then it could be real interesting - weenie in my hoping for such of course
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
ukie mood flakes...Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS also ticked west but there is no phasing at all with the northern stream. I think the northern stream energy could bring some snow showers to us on Friday, hence the scroll.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
A flake with that map lol those in mm.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
amugs wrote:Holy the euro was close to a phase for us - just need the ridge to hold a bit more and the NJ to dive a little quicker and we could see a minor event for most of our board members. Still have what 24-36 hours left - jeez this woudl be a fricking coup again by the NW trend!!!
IF it dives faster and phases earlier like by OBX or VA capes then it could be real interesting - weenie in my hoping for such of course
It would be nuts, even more so that the last if we got even a moderate storm with no one really calling for it at the last minute again.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
15z SREFs closer again, one member now showing a hit, nmb 6
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html
A stretch, sure but ill take the trend.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html
A stretch, sure but ill take the trend.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
ARW2 showing a scrape too, all these were OTS in previous runs. Op NAM looks to be coming in further west again at 18z.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Yep, another significant shift, this run brings precip into LI and damn close to the Jersey shore. Hour 43 18z NAM.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_18z/wrf42.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_18z/wrf42.html
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Wow Tom, you used to be always the pessimist, lol. The NAM gives you one blizzard and now here you are cheering her on! Gotta love it! Hope the trend continues.
mako460- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Just looked at NAM, it has all the precip as rain FYI
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Example of what Im talking about...
0z GFS
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279274
12z GFS
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279273
Much closer to ze phase...
I meant there's no phase at our latitude. And there won't be. Snow showers at best.
amugs wrote:Holy the euro was close to a phase for us - just need the ridge to hold a bit more and the NJ to dive a little quicker and we could see a minor event for most of our board members. Still have what 24-36 hours left - jeez this woudl be a fricking coup again by the NW trend!!!
IF it dives faster and phases earlier like by OBX or VA capes then it could be real interesting - weenie in my hoping for such of course
Not even scraping Cape Cod.
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Topped out at 50° today it felt nice out snowpack is going away quickly
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
I dont like to completely speak in definites. While I agree its unlikely a phase will occur at our latitude you cannot deny that most coastals this year have trended NW in the SR and the precip field for this system has shifted hundreds of miles in todays runs so I say keep a watchful eye on it. Most likely we'll get nothing and the Cape gets a scrape but we'll see if this trend continues because as of last night 0z all the precip was WELL offshore to the south and east of the New England coast entirely.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
4K Nam bringing the goods into SNJ as a scraper and gives LI some snow.
This is going to trend NW they all have and I will take another .5" if we can squeeze it out somehow someway.
@ Frank no it doesn't true but the jump of 200 miles is impressive and it will jump more as we get closer, Jersey Coast and LI may see some action - heck any SNOW IS GOOD SNOW - never poo poo it - after living through the 70's and 80's you really come to appreciate this!
This is going to trend NW they all have and I will take another .5" if we can squeeze it out somehow someway.
@ Frank no it doesn't true but the jump of 200 miles is impressive and it will jump more as we get closer, Jersey Coast and LI may see some action - heck any SNOW IS GOOD SNOW - never poo poo it - after living through the 70's and 80's you really come to appreciate this!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Down to 31.8* after a melting high of 46*
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
21z SREFS west again, a few hits now, a lot very close and mean now scrapes
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
The northern energy coming across our area Friday is fairly potent. You can see the southern energy is well east to prevent a phase. This almost has the look of an inverted trough setup. We'll have to see if a narrow band of snow develops over the region on Friday. Places under this band may see a minor accumulation,
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
12k NAM close and closer each run
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
Speaking of INVT, looks like this model suggests CNJ could get a band of snow on Friday.
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
No way. That band is going to move about 50 miles NE of where this map shows it.
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Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions
15.9 degrees, 85%, 29.82R
Looks like warm up into 40's for Sun, Mon,Tues,Weds with rain on wednesday as per NWS.
Looks like warm up into 40's for Sun, Mon,Tues,Weds with rain on wednesday as per NWS.
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