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January 2016 Observations and Discussions

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January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 Empty Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 27, 2016 10:06 am

A tick west again on 12z NAM, hr 48 now showing snow in eastern NE.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrf48.html
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:29 am

12z GFS also ticked west but there is no phasing at all with the northern stream. I think the northern stream energy could bring some snow showers to us on Friday, hence the scroll.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:34 am

Switched this from the other thread. It's more of a January observation than anything.

NYC is on track for it's warmest January ever with over 20 inches of snow. An interesting stat I picked up from someone on another site. This looks to be a lock.
Year     Snow   Avg Temp
2011....36.0"....29.7
1925....27.4"....28.4
2016....27.2"....33.7...through the 26th
1996....26.1"....30.5
1923....24.5"....30.0
1935....23.6"....28.9
1877....20.5"....27.7
1978....20.3.....28.0
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January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 Empty Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:57 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS also ticked west but there is no phasing at all with the northern stream. I think the northern stream energy could bring some snow showers to us on Friday, hence the scroll.

Doesnt it show later phasing hence the 980s low that blows up east of New England and absorbtion of the GL low? I think its been trending towards earlier interaction showing a more amped and negatively tilted vort and now showing the phase occuring near our latitude. Too late for us yes but I dont think its out of the question for the trend to continue and earlier interaction to lead to a further south developing low possibly skirting NJ, NYC and LI (and SNE) similar to the last storm but an opposite situation in where instead of a further south slider its a late forming north storm where we want as early interaction as possible. May be grasping at straws here but I think its not out of the realm of possibility.
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January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 Empty Re: January 2016 Observations and Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 27, 2016 12:01 pm

Example of what Im talking about...

0z GFS

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279274

12z GFS

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279273

Much closer to ze phase...
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 27, 2016 1:12 pm

Holy the euro was close to a phase for us - just need the ridge to hold a bit more and the NJ to dive a little quicker and we could see a minor event for most of our board members. Still have what 24-36 hours left - jeez this woudl be a fricking coup again by the NW trend!!!  

IF it dives faster and phases earlier like by OBX or VA capes then it could be real interesting - weenie in my hoping for such of course

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f45

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f48

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 27, 2016 1:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS also ticked west but there is no phasing at all with the northern stream. I think the northern stream energy could bring some snow showers to us on Friday, hence the scroll.
ukie mood flakes...
January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 27, 2016 1:47 pm

A flake with that map lol those in mm.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 27, 2016 1:48 pm

@amugs wrote:Holy the euro was close to a phase for us - just need the ridge to hold a bit more and the NJ to dive a little quicker and we could see a minor event for most of our board members. Still have what 24-36 hours left - jeez this woudl be a fricking coup again by the NW trend!!!  

IF it dives faster and phases earlier like by OBX or VA capes then it could be real interesting - weenie in my hoping for such of course

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f45

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f48

It would be nuts, even more so that the last if we got even a moderate storm with no one really calling for it at the last minute again.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:17 pm

15z SREFs closer again, one member now showing a hit, nmb 6 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

A stretch, sure but ill take the trend.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:19 pm

ARW2 showing a scrape too, all these were OTS in previous runs. Op NAM looks to be coming in further west again at 18z.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:23 pm

Yep, another significant shift, this run brings precip into LI and damn close to the Jersey shore. Hour 43 18z NAM.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_18z/wrf42.html
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Post by mako460 Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:37 pm

Wow Tom, you used to be always the pessimist, lol. The NAM gives you one blizzard and now here you are cheering her on! Gotta love it! Hope the trend continues.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:12 pm

Just looked at NAM, it has all the precip as rain FYI
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2016 5:36 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Example of what Im talking about...

0z GFS

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279274

12z GFS

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279273

Much closer to ze phase...

I meant there's no phase at our latitude. And there won't be. Snow showers at best. 

@amugs wrote:Holy the euro was close to a phase for us - just need the ridge to hold a bit more and the NJ to dive a little quicker and we could see a minor event for most of our board members. Still have what 24-36 hours left - jeez this woudl be a fricking coup again by the NW trend!!!  

IF it dives faster and phases earlier like by OBX or VA capes then it could be real interesting - weenie in my hoping for such of course

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f45

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f48

Not even scraping Cape Cod.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:07 pm

Topped out at 50° today it felt nice out snowpack is going away quickly
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:20 pm

I dont like to completely speak in definites. While I agree its unlikely a phase will occur at our latitude you cannot deny that most coastals this year have trended NW in the SR and the precip field for this system has shifted hundreds of miles in todays runs so I say keep a watchful eye on it. Most likely we'll get nothing and the Cape gets a scrape but we'll see if this trend continues because as of last night 0z all the precip was WELL offshore to the south and east of the New England coast entirely.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:25 pm

4K Nam bringing the goods into SNJ as a scraper and gives LI some snow.

This is going to trend NW they all have and I will take another .5" if we can squeeze it out somehow someway.

@ Frank no it doesn't true but the jump of 200 miles is impressive and it will jump more as we get closer, Jersey Coast and LI may see some action - heck any SNOW IS GOOD SNOW - never poo poo it - after living through the 70's and 80's you really come to appreciate this!

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 Nam4km_ref_us_11

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 Nam4km_ref_us_12

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Post by Radz Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:47 pm

Down to 31.8* after a melting high of 46*
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:07 pm

21z SREFS west again, a few hits now, a lot very close and mean now scrapes

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:18 pm

The northern energy coming across our area Friday is fairly potent. You can see the southern energy is well east to prevent a phase. This almost has the look of an inverted trough setup. We'll have to see if a narrow band of snow develops over the region on Friday. Places under this band may see a minor accumulation,

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_8

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:20 pm

12k  NAM close and closer each run

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 Image.thumb.png.d702d77bf0894f8d180122725e53d331

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 Image.thumb.png.df3a29d4e28a1dfab1b9e49f9d3ff978

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:35 pm

Speaking of INVT, looks like this model suggests CNJ could get a band of snow on Friday.

January 2016 Observations and Discussions - Page 21 Image.thumb.png.794d971d9aca3d7b3f73338686901766

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:19 pm

No way. That band is going to move about 50 miles NE of where this map shows it.

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Post by docstox12 Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:43 am

15.9 degrees, 85%, 29.82R

Looks like warm up into 40's for Sun, Mon,Tues,Weds with rain on wednesday as per NWS.
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