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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:47 am

@ Frank. I appreciate the breakdown- obviously the golden set up is an arctic air mass which locks in cold temps and have the ocean throw moisture our way in the form of snow. I am on the north shore of Suffolk County and I've noticed that typically during crucial rain/snow line set ups we typically tend to stay more snow than rain. It's amazing how 10-15 miles even on the coast can be make for significant differences in snowfall totals. I know the Long Island Sound rarely can produce sound effect snow but it would be a treat to see that happen once!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:47 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@dsix85 wrote:Morning Frank and Happy New Year- do the warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures this year help feed into these storms that might hit us over the next few weeks? Will it help enhance snowfall rates should precip fall as snow? I know last year we were below normal with ocean temps. Curious how this winter's setup in regards to ocean temps influence the coastal areas.

The warm Atlantic SSTs will produce stronger than normal Nor'easters off the east coast this year. Warm core cyclones (tropical systems) feed off warm SSTs to get stronger. The same can be said for cold core cyclones. That said, this does not always benefit the immediate coast since winds blowing from the east tend to keep precipitation in the form of rain over snow due to the warm SSTs. Coastal sections have to wait until winds shift from east to N or NW so the Arctic air gets pulled to the coast.

So you get stronger storms with higher snow rates, but there usually is a case of rain to mix to snow for coastal sections. But once it flips to snow, the rates are so high they usually make up for it.

I mentioned this a few times times earlier, good point for reiterating it. I think it will favor I95 NW this winter at least Jan-Feb until things cool down maybe late February if SSTs are cooler and early March it could turn into a repeat of two winters ago (or three?) where each storm was progressively south and I dont think we'll see the Raritan and Delaware bays freeze this year but who the hell knows. In terms of the first storm, it depends on how much it deepens IMO, if it stays weaker (CMC) it rides further south and colder air is pulled into our area. However if the two systems combine like the GFS shows and amps up the flow off the ocean then we're in trouble.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:49 am

@dsix85 wrote:@ Frank. I appreciate the breakdown- obviously the golden set up is an arctic air mass which locks in cold temps and have the ocean throw moisture our way in the form of snow. I am on the north shore of Suffolk County and I've noticed that typically during crucial rain/snow line set ups we typically tend to stay more snow than rain. It's amazing how 10-15 miles even on the coast can be make for significant differences in snowfall totals. I know the Long Island Sound rarely can produce sound effect snow but it would be a treat to see that happen once!

Scott and others know LI topography better than me. The east-southeast winds impact the south Shore much more than north Shore I've noticed. Just a small difference in distance could keep some areas wet and others white. Pretty incredible.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:05 pm

GFS showing struggles with coastals in long range with end of range storm, 12z run hour 336, looks like a beautiful setup for a fantasy storm...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=336&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_336_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160102+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Instead it does this...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160102+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:32 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:GFS showing struggles with coastals in long range with end of range storm, 12z run hour 336, looks like a beautiful setup for a fantasy storm...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=336&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_336_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160102+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Instead it does this...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160102+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

That first one is a gem, right out of the Gulf and up the coast.Fantasy is right!!!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:02 pm

Funny how it takes 50 hours to go from FL to off Hatteras...
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:02 pm

Peeps,
Op runs are going to waver, change,fluctuate like a politician so take them like a grain of salt. The ens are what we should be looking at. Yes op runs are fun and pretty but in the transition they are not to be trusted in the LR. The ideas are good with a few southern vorts and do not underestimate the cold air. A nw flow will seep low level cold air in. I do agree with NJ that we see better bs nows from Newark area North. Just MHO.

Don't discount anything at this stage even the 1st storm

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:12 pm

@amugs wrote:Peeps,
Op runs are going to waver, change,fluctuate like a politician so take them like a grain of salt. The ens are what we should be looking at. Yes op runs are fun and pretty but in the transition they are not to be trusted in the LR. The ideas are good with a few southern vorts and do not underestimate the cold air. A nw flow will seep low level cold air in. I do agree with NJ that we see better bs nows from Newark area North. Just MHO.

Don't discount anything at this stage even the 1st storm

Agreed, always fun to look at the OP runs and see what theyre spitting out though.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:16 pm

CMC storm 1

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=180

Cold air cut off

Storm 2, better

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=228&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=216
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:41 pm

There are still a lot of ensemble members south and east of the operational GFS today for the system on the 9th. If we get a sub 1000mb near the benchmark even with stale cold air it should still snow for at least part of our area. Temperatures at this range for this system will be in the 30's too low forties near the coast. So seeing some snow with this system is still on the table.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 02, 2016 2:50 pm

Storm 1 on GEFS still good

Long Range Thread 9.0 Gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_36

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 02, 2016 2:59 pm

@amugs wrote:Storm 1 on GEFS still good

Long Range Thread 9.0 Gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_36

Probably a tough one for the coastal areas like me but next one looks more promising.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 02, 2016 3:04 pm

@amugs wrote:Storm 1 on GEFS still good

Long Range Thread 9.0 Gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_36

That might be storm 2 Mugs. Time stamp is Jan11th. First one is around the 9th

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 02, 2016 5:56 pm

Correct SROC thanks for pointing this out.

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:29 pm

Gfs trended colder with jan 9-10th storm 0c line south of NYC. Close as can be. Coast is toast but NW is in this game sleet, snow mix.Long Range Thread 9.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f162

Long Range Thread 9.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f168

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:32 pm

It looking good, snow map shows snow just inland from NYC like my area north, parts PA get over a foot!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:33 pm

That 0 line is just barring with my city, like so close it would be a matter of blocks.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:35 pm

Storm 2 is there as well along the coast, so close to a phase

Long Range Thread 9.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f204

Good rum here
207
Long Range Thread 9.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f207

Warm except interior
Long Range Thread 9.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f210

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:35 pm

00z GFS for storm #2.

Long Range Thread 9.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f210

Long Range Thread 9.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f213

Goodnight.


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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:37 pm

1 ,more

Long Range Thread 9.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f216

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:39 pm

Bombs away!!!!

Hr 213 and 216Long Range Thread 9.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f213

Long Range Thread 9.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f216

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:39 pm

All you have to know 10 days out is the storm signal still exists. A more in depth look of the stoem can be read on the next Mo Mo

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:42 pm

Vort closes off

Long Range Thread 9.0 Image.thumb.gif.43c6dc8a6b0b41f340bb7baead36f8f3

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:42 pm

Great signs here with this run tonight.Goodnight.

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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 03, 2016 12:24 am

GEFS has the first storm warm but a good storm signal for storm 2. A lot of members near the benchmark. Plenty of sleepless nights possible coming up this January.
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