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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by Radz Tue Jan 05, 2016 7:11 am

Lots of good chatter this morning (not just teeth) about cold and snow, I'm just going to enjoy todays cold and hope for the best Smile
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 05, 2016 9:46 am

Look at the new EPS Parallel - I love this new model - and tell me what you see?

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Post-7472-0-00947500-1451996013

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Post-7472-0-02150400-1451996030

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Post-7472-0-32677900-1451996049

I see a cold pattern with storm chances and a slight relaxation the last week of JAN that goes to normal not above as the weeklies were putting out yesterday. So why is this important because the weeklies got peeps panties all twisted yesterday and saying it was over - the models will and are still correcting from the dark side. It MAY even be better as we move forward when we get a better handle on teh Trop Forcing that is along with teh Strat is going to help drive teh pattern along with their friend MJO

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 ECMF_phase_51m_small

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 05, 2016 11:06 am

Newest MJO - good sign longer lasting 8,1,2

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full(5)

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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 05, 2016 11:29 am

Mugs that's a good sign if the convection stays near the Date Line as forecast the MJO should respond by staying in 81 and 2. Also Bernie Rayno has a nice video this morning that everyone should check out on the AccuWeather site. can't post the link right now I'm on my phone I'll try and do it later today. He basically says there's a ton of energy cutting underneath the trough that will set up along the East Coast next week and while models do not show anything at the moment it could get interesting
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 05, 2016 11:38 am

@algae888 wrote:Mugs that's a good sign if the convection stays near the Date Line as forecast the MJO should respond by staying in 81 and 2. Also Bernie Rayno has a nice video this morning that everyone should check out on the AccuWeather site. can't post the link right now I'm on my phone I'll try and do it later today. He basically says there's a ton of energy cutting underneath the trough that will set up along the East Coast next week and while models do not show anything at the moment it could get interesting
Yes that i sthe idea with the PV lobe setting up W of Hudson bay we'll have Northern vorts rotate around that bad boy like last year and with an active STJ we have POTENTIAL for multiple storm chances of Miller B's and even A just by teh STJ itself. just need the PNA to hold positive for us to get these to ride the coast. Med range is when I think the models see these not LR sorry fantasy dwellers.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:12 pm

CMC showing a little hope with storm 2 but the problem remains they're too close together, if it bombs out we could see a rain to snow scenario at best with a bigger hit for New England. My thinking ATM.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PT&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:47 pm

Most of New England looks to get soaked with that setup. Maybe NWJ and the western HV have a shot at snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 05, 2016 7:19 pm

The euro parallel mean looks good mid-month. Enough -NAO blocking than what we're seeing for the 10th storm. Could spark something between 15th-19th.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Peps_z500a_noram_336

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 05, 2016 8:13 pm

I'm never taking the GFS OP seriously. Horrible stats lately.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 A72249b53cc3b24fcc510d6f6c28c75d

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:32 pm

Frank and all what a crap model the GEFS and GFS have been so far this winter with this pattern imo. The GEFS have been playing catch up with this pattern and vastly correction itself mores o than the EPS. The evolution of the pattern with all these moving parts and I made a post in teh otehr forum that the GFS is terrible with the tropics hence why it CAN NOT get the MJO or a handle on it whilst the EURO is far superior with the tropics thus a much greater validation for the MJO.

EURO MJO
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 ECMF_phase_51m_small

GEFS MJO
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 NCPE_phase_21m_small

GEFS Look at the AL Low near rthe WC of BC

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Gefs_z500a_5d_noram_61(29)

EURO ENS
Not as deep and further west
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Eps_z500a_5d_noram_61(232)

CMC
Even colder for the EC

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Cmc_z500a_5d_noram_61(11)


This is why the GEFS handle of the Aleutian Low is near the West shores of BC where the euro has it more retrograded SW - that is a big difference and again the EURO is picking up on the trop forcing out on the dateline. Also why the GEFS is showing warmer pattern overall for the EC than the EURO or CMC which I learned from my pro met friends sniffs out the cold patterns better (the CMC that is)
Moral of teh story as Frank pointed out don't trust the GFS or GEFS in this EL Nino set up that is basin wide with trop convection out by teh date line. For that we are seeing the possibility of a trop cyclone by French polynesia forming - talking about convection!! This will pull the AL Low further west out towards 150 W SW of teh AL as we head towards the end of this month as per teh Euro Monthlies and Para.

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 06, 2016 9:10 am

I believe euro has a clipper for us Monday night with some light accumulations... nws disco...
THE ECMWF INTRODUCES A CLIPPER MON NGT...PUTTING DOWN SOME
LGT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAN TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO WITH
THE OFFICIAL FCST AND INCLUDED A 30 POP. IF FORM HOLDS...THE GFS
SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS THIS SOLN. OTHERWISE...NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU USE THE PATTERN IS SEASONALLY COLD FOR MON AND TUE
and look at the ao haven't seen those numbers in a long time...
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Ao.sprd2
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 06, 2016 9:26 am

@algae888 wrote:I believe euro has a clipper for us Monday night with some light accumulations... nws disco...
THE ECMWF INTRODUCES A CLIPPER MON NGT...PUTTING DOWN SOME
LGT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE CWA. DID LEAN TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO WITH
THE OFFICIAL FCST AND INCLUDED A 30 POP. IF FORM HOLDS...THE GFS
SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS THIS SOLN. OTHERWISE...NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL YOU USE THE PATTERN IS SEASONALLY COLD FOR MON AND TUE
and look at the ao haven't seen those numbers in a long time...
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Ao.sprd2
Wow the latest guidance really tanks the AO by mid month. That's usually a precursor of an impending winter storm to track. The models should start to reflect that at the surface by that time. Patience my fellow snow weenies. Thumbs up
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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 06, 2016 9:29 am



NAO

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 R7rklx

Looking good
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 06, 2016 9:55 am

NAO BOOM Mikey V the GW with call!!

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/684498478584721408?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:00 am

MLK Special???

EPS says there is a chance

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 CYC2dNaUkAETChs

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:27 am

Today's 12z gfs is trying to phase the northern and southern jet on Wednesday of next week I'm only out to hour 156. Interesting
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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:36 am

GFS just misses of full phase. still gives us some snow for next Wednesday. wow this came out of the clear blue. big difference at 500 millibars from yesterday. Can't post maps I'm on my cell can someone please post when you get a chance
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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:49 am

Today's gfs is very different than last nights euro in that the vortex doesn't drop as far south as the Euro showed. So I wouldn't get my hopes up too much for this to happen yet. But it just goes to show that with so much energy flying around the atmosphere it wouldn't take much for a coastal to develop
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:03 pm

WOW!#

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Wowza.gif.2d5f5d02b84e19daa78848c07a6338a9

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:05 pm

Watch for the clipper to trend stronger..,.would be a nice starter event for sure.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:24 pm

It would be nice but I'm not getting to excited long ways off
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Post by Abba701 Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:26 pm

I heard Sunday could break another record high

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:35 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:It would be nice but I'm not getting to excited long ways off

agreed

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 06, 2016 1:02 pm

@Abba701 wrote:I heard Sunday could break another record high

Possibly for NYC. Then we crash as the arctic air settles in. cheers

SROC - even a 1-2" at this point will do reminiscent of last ye at tonic start winter just 1.5 weeks later

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 06, 2016 1:17 pm

Looks like, 13th, 18th and 21st p[ossibilities for storms on 12z GFS. And at the end of the run a beast headed up coast.
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