Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[amugs]

I heard Sunday could break another record high

Possibly for NYC. Then we crash as the arctic air settles in.

SROC - even a 1-2" at this point will do reminiscent of last ye at tonic start winter just 1.5 weeks later

[jmanley32]

Looks like, 13th, 18th and 21st p[ossibilities for storms on 12z GFS. And at the end of the run a beast headed up coast.

[Guest]

Looks like, 13th, 18th and 21st p[ossibilities for storms on 12z GFS.  And at the end of the run a beast headed up coast.

The 18th threat spawns a deepening LP off Hatteras that moves from off Atlantic City NJ to Montauk and then sits for a day. In total we would be affected for 60 consecutive hours. Ridiculous, stupid GFS just torturing us even more with fantasy.

[Snow88]

Someone say blocking? Jeez

[amugs]

@antmasiello 25m25 minutes ago
The pattern ahead is nothing like last 2 winters. It's one that features a true -NAO developing and true Nino N Pac circulation.

@antmasiello 1h1 hour ago
Yes this weekend's inland runner is important in terms of transitioning NAO to something more

As depicted so beautifully by Anthony's map above.

Models slowly picking up on Trop forcing, STJ and the Strat dynamics of the PV IMO

[Snow88]

^^ Models are always slow with picking up those.

[algae888]

Today's euro is plenty cold and a very good set up at the end of its run looks like we could have a few Clippers next week and maybe see our first light snow accumulations. it's different than the GFS as it's mostly Northern Stream Energy.

[skinsfan1177]

I'm really confused with all the storm talks and which ones. I saw earlier the 1819th possibility but is it now their may be one next week.

[NjWeatherGuy]

GFS showing a lot of hope for the future in terms of snow chances, with the oppressive pattern relaxing and a train of storms beginning to form along the EC towards the latter part of the run. Hopefuy we see this come to fruition.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Looks like, 13th, 18th and 21st p[ossibilities for storms on 12z GFS.  And at the end of the run a beast headed up coast.

The 18th threat spawns a deepening LP off Hatteras that moves from off Atlantic City NJ to Montauk and then sits for a day.  In total we would be affected for 60 consecutive hours.  Ridiculous, stupid GFS just torturing us even more with fantasy.

Sounds like the blizzard of 1888.

We are owed that for enduring December.

[algae888]

I'm really confused with all the storm talks and which ones. I saw earlier the 1819th possibility but is it now their may be one next week.

skins the 2 storms for this weekend are almost all rain except for some light mix inland fri night. next week there are a few clippers per euro and one southern stream system on gfs. any one of these could produce snow. towards next weekend is where the pattern specifically the blocking is forecast to develop. its in this time frame where we could see a nice coastal develop. still a ways out though but signs are encouraging.

[algae888]

Looks like, 13th, 18th and 21st p[ossibilities for storms on 12z GFS.  And at the end of the run a beast headed up coast.

The 18th threat spawns a deepening LP off Hatteras that moves from off Atlantic City NJ to Montauk and then sits for a day.  In total we would be affected for 60 consecutive hours.  Ridiculous, stupid GFS just torturing us even more with fantasy.

if the blocking that the euro and other guidance comes to fruition than this threat def has the possibility of happing. that is a big coastal sitting off the coast. check out snow 88 euro map. that is impressive.

[Guest]

Looks like, 13th, 18th and 21st p[ossibilities for storms on 12z GFS.  And at the end of the run a beast headed up coast.

The 18th threat spawns a deepening LP off Hatteras that moves from off Atlantic City NJ to Montauk and then sits for a day.  In total we would be affected for 60 consecutive hours.  Ridiculous, stupid GFS just torturing us even more with fantasy.

if the blocking that the euro and other guidance comes to fruition than this threat  def has the possibility of happing. that is a big coastal sitting off the coast. check out snow 88 euro map. that is impressive.

Where can I see that map?

[algae888]

Someone say blocking? Jeez

james right here
-nao
+pna
50/50 low
very active stj
if we miss in this set-up it will be a big disappointment

[algae888]

frank, scott and rb if the blocking becomes as extreme as the guidance is showing does that mean it becomes harder to break down as we move ahead? and basically we should have blocking for most of the remainder of winter?

[algae888]

this is not a bad look going forward...

gfs

eps looks fantastic day 10

[skinsfan1177]

My question is right now Euro is showing a better look correct. GFS is struggling correct? If that blocking comes to fruition it will take a long time to break down.

[algae888]

here is our storm signal day 10...

[algae888]

My question is right now Euro is showing a better look correct. GFS is struggling correct? If that blocking comes to fruition it will take a long time to break down.

skins the first question is that I would trust the euro more than the gfs and the euro does look better in the 8-10+ time frame. the second question I asked frank and others if this is correct in regards to sustained blocking. let's see what they have to say.

[Snowfall]

If everything falls in to place we can make up for what we missed in one storm right along the east coast

[Snowfall]

I'm speaking on the 18th time frame storm

[skinsfan1177]

My question is right now Euro is showing a better look correct. GFS is struggling correct? If that blocking comes to fruition it will take a long time to break down.

skins the first question is that I would trust the euro more than the gfs and the euro does look better in the 8-10+ time frame. the second question I asked frank and others if this is correct in regards to sustained blocking. let's see what they have to say.

Thaks algae for the info but the GFS looks good to just not as good as euro

[algae888]

My question is right now Euro is showing a better look correct. GFS is struggling correct? If that blocking comes to fruition it will take a long time to break down.

skins the first question is that I would trust the euro more than the gfs and the euro does look better in the 8-10+ time frame. the second question I asked frank and others if this is correct in regards to sustained blocking. let's see what they have to say.

Thaks algae for the info but the GFS looks good to just not as good as euro

the euro drops the vortex further south than the gfs and squashes the southern branch. any s/w basically dies. the gfs allows the southern stream to be more active and tries to phase the two for the system on the 13th. look at the 500mb maps on the next several runs to see where the vortex sets up.

[algae888]

look at how much stronger and south the euro is compared to the gfs with the vortex...

euro

[algae888]

what should be interesting in the next few model cycles is to see which one is correct. unusually the gfs handles the northern stream better than the euro and the euro does better with the southern stream. so both could be wrong. we shall see.

[algae888]

frank I am hearing that today's euro splits the pv at 50hpa and 30 hpa and is very disturbed at 10hpa. good sign for a sswe.

[frank 638]

lee goldberg was on and he said next wed week from today we will see some snow with some accumulation

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