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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:05 pm

i hope so we really need a good snowstorm. frank was that the euro model for the 2nd storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:08 pm

@frank 638 wrote:i hope so we really need a good snowstorm. frank was that the euro model for the 2nd storm

The OP models should be disregarded until we get into closer range. Rule of thumb is to use the Ensembles for storm threats over 10 days out

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:08 pm

@frank 638 wrote:i hope so we really need a good snowstorm. frank was that the euro model for the 2nd storm

Euro ensembles.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by chief7 Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:08 pm

I think that first system is going to set up the 50/50 that we need

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:17 pm

12z CMC ensembles, click hour 192, very tight signal for the 12th storm, some strong ones on there

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=1&RunTime=12&Type=pnm
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:18 pm

10th-11th*
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:45 pm

@chief7 wrote:I think that first system is going to set up the 50/50 that we need

We def may need a 50/50 low to get white not wet. Although there is still a lot of time to see it unfold. Not worried about cold air yet. The signal is there for now and that's what matters for now.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 03, 2016 9:40 pm

Let's not try to figure snow and wet at this juncture -as Frank and SROC have stated - the ENS are what to look at and we have a _EPO, +PNA and -Ao along with a slightly NEG NAO on the GEFS, EURO ENS. Look at the cluster of LP here - 9 days out peeps this is looking good if not very good in my book.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 3 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_31.thumb.png.1f102d2a6908caa2ea515bb6c8750767

Cold air source IF this set up and indicies are correct is there.

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Post by chief7 Sun Jan 03, 2016 10:19 pm

Mugs don't forget about the MJO going from 7 to 8

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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:32 pm

GGEM big rainstorm for everyone in the Northeast. No snow at all.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:37 pm

Meanwhile, the 00z GFS is cold but out to sea. Model mayhem. My latest thought's will be posted in tomorrow's Mo Mo.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:58 pm

A good friend of mine who is majoring in Meteorology put out his winter pattern update in the form of a video. I HIGHLY suggest you all watch it. The analog package he put together in his outlooks is playing out almost perfectly. We also share similar ideas, with the brunt of winter coming in February and March.

https://youtu.be/40HHzmIHq-E


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Post by justin92 Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:17 am

Did anyone see the latest euro or CMC?

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Post by frank 638 Mon Jan 04, 2016 5:39 am

Great video frank I like how he explained everything looking forward to 2 half of Jan to Feb and march party

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Post by frank 638 Mon Jan 04, 2016 5:40 am

And thank you for posting it

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:08 am

I'm sure Frank's Mo Mo will address this but wave spacing between the first system and second system may be an issue. If they are too cl SE together then both end up warm. I'd like to see the second system start trending about 12 hrs slower.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:16 am

@sroc4 wrote:I'm sure Frank's Mo Mo will address this but wave spacing between the first system and second system may be an issue. If they are too cl SE together then both end up warm. I'd like to see the second system start trending about 12 hrs slower.

I believe it's going to be an issue
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:37 am

It appears even euro control now has a inland storm which would likely mean rain. Getting into 7 day range hoping changes.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 04, 2016 8:27 am

Im liking the 11th-13th timeframe...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=225&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_225_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160104+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Theres consistently been a signal here.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 04, 2016 8:30 am

CMC is on cool aid if you ask me, how would a 996 off Hatteras going to 986 off Cape Cod, perfect track, be an all rainstorm in January?

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=168&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=180
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 04, 2016 8:41 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:CMC is on cool aid if you ask me, how would a 996 off Hatteras going to 986 off Cape Cod, perfect track, be an all rainstorm in January?

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=168&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=180

Just quickly looking at that map no cold air source. HP centered over S Montana to the west and Canadian Maritime to the NE. It looks like the source regions for the surface and mid layers are primarily SW, S, SE, and E, verbatim. Less than ideal and supports that map again verbatim.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 04, 2016 8:57 am

Based on what I'm reading here, and Frank's Mo Mo, and the video he posted (which was excellent) I'm going into hibernation for at least 1 week. I can't take the lack of snow and don't have the patience to wait. I'm going to try and re-charge.

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Post by RJB8525 Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:17 am

syosnow94 wrote:Based on what I'm reading here, and Frank's Mo Mo, and the video he posted (which was excellent) I'm going into hibernation for at least 1 week.  I can't take the lack of snow and don't have the patience to wait.  I'm going to try and re-charge.  

LOL same.
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:22 am

Latest numbers:
Nino tanking in the east.
1.6, 2.6, 2.7, 1.5.
1.2 and 3 have cooled by .8 and .4*c, 3.4 and 4 by .3*c. hopefully this will cause convection to be centered near the DL and help keep the trough south of the Aleutians. olr lr maps say yes. we shall see if this can save our winter.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:31 am

@algae888 wrote:Latest numbers:
Nino tanking in the east.
1.6, 2.6, 2.7, 1.5.
1.2 and 3 have cooled by .8 and .4*c, 3.4 and 4 by .3*c. hopefully this will cause convection to be centered near the DL and help keep the trough south of the Aleutians. olr lr maps say yes. we shall see if this can save our winter.

What winter?
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