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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:28 pm

@rb924119 wrote:It looks like my faith of seeing another good pattern is being restored. After some brief analysis, it looks like the LR ensembles do have support from the tropics, with respect to Nino and the MJO, as well as some from the Stratosphere. Convection looks to re-establish itself near the dateline while the MJO, which was originally progged to enter the warm phases with some magnitude, is now being held near Phase 3 and in a relatively muted state. Phase 3 is a cold phase for much of the U.S., including the East, and if it remains muted, allows other factors to easily override its influence. Whether this remains the case in future forecasts remains to be seen, but I like where it's all headed. Where I am getting a little concerned is the Stratosphere, as the EURO has an entirely different idea than what the GFS does, in that it doesn't split it at all through Day 10, and configures it so that we are actually sitting almost under a weak extension of the Stratospheric ridging. While that argues for no true -NAO blocking, we might get lucky with 50/50's or transients, like we recently saw. That said, we DO see the retrogression and consolidation of the Stratospheric ridge over British Columbia through Day 10, which if this is extrapolated supports a stout -EPO/+PNA couplet after Day 10 that should have some staying power. All in all, based on my brief analysis, I expect to see the return of the same type of pattern that we have had the past several years, with a great-looking west, and not-so-great and transient East, which still definitely delivered.

To add to this, it just occurred to me that the forecasts of the MJO are likely a direct result of the resurgence of convection near the Dateline, since the MJO is still close enough/near the Maritime Continent such that the descending branch of the ENSO circulation is killing off the MJO.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2016 6:44 pm

Wow at today's LR guidance. Winter will return with a vengeance

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2016 6:59 pm

Euro weeklies

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Eps_m_z500a_noram_27
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Eps_m_z500a_noram_59

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:21 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Euro weeklies

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Eps_m_z500a_noram_27
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Eps_m_z500a_noram_59

is that 540 blue line the freezing line?
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:21 pm

The potential for cold and snowy pattern certainly exists. Should all get very interesting. Lets hope it all holds up and we can get the pices to come together. Going to have to get through the warmth first.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:28 pm

not that i trust accuweather but they do have us snow cold ice in 2nd week of feb and lasting threw the month with few days of mild weather i know it will change but i think we would see couple days of feb with snow and cold will it be like last feb i say no

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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:32 pm

joe cioffi has posted winter will resume late nextweek with stormy threats and shots of cold

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:05 pm

Told Ya'll that we reload and go boom- like 78 and 58 and 03 and .......................... it coming and again ad nasuem:

TROP FORCING FTW


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Post by Bkdude Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:08 pm

So don't put your booties away

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Post by Bkdude Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:08 pm

Or boots!

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:26 pm

@amugs wrote:Told Ya'll that we reload and go boom- like 78 and 58 and 03 and .......................... it coming and again ad nasuem:

TROP FORCING FTW


You are actually more optimistic than sroc4. I love the passion. The kids you coach must play hard for you.

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:08 pm

This is what I have been waiting for this winter and the last two from Isotherm:

I agree. The D10-15 ensembles and weeklies from early Jan/late Dec missed the significant -NAO blocking episode completely from that lead time. I am fully expecting that the model data gradually trends more robust w/ the initiation / development of a -NAO as we approach the time. There are a number of indicators which are suggestive of its occurrence, which I will write a post on soon. I especially anticipate the -NAO to become more robust / deepen beyond February 8th-10th. However, needless to say, I'm glad to see that February is heading in the direction outlined pre-season outlook wise.

I SAID IT SOOOOO MANY TIMES AND BEEN POUNDING THE DRUM - GET READY FOR A GREAT STRETCH COMING UP!!!

@SYO - my teams would run through a frickin brick wall for me and I got every once out of them.

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:11 pm

Now i want some interior snows since im in Binghamton. We will constantly be at war now lmao
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 28, 2016 11:13 pm

@aiannone wrote:Now i want some interior snows since im in Binghamton. We will constantly be at war now lmao


Keep the faith. Binghamton averages almost 85 inches a year.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:44 am

I think we might have a storm threat during the period from the 7th-10th looking at the guidance...

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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:58 am

Mike Ventrice

Remember last February? A top 5 cold month for many states in the NE? Late Feb forecast pattern extremely similar.
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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:00 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I think we might have a storm threat during the period from the 7th-10th looking at the guidance...

GFS shows a big coastal snowstorm on the 10th
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:22 pm

I think the 2nd week of February things may heat up, GFS ensembles are interesting for so far out, of course its in crazy range to even consider but the pattern may be turning around then to a potential snowstorm on the EC.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279536
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:25 pm

As Isotherm so eloquently (to this weenie) stated last night about the N NAO and when you look at today's run it is already more bullish on the Greenland / -NAO height rises. The models should continue to pick up on this with each run and I firmly believe will get colder as well with the -epo going to lock in do the GOA LP retrograding to sw of the Aleutians big time and a huge +pna.

Dates to watch +1/-1 for each in Feb/March as Mugs Stradamus looks into his snow globe weenie style for storms:
5th
8th
10-12th
14-17th PD tres
20-22nd
24-26th Snowicane deuce
3/2-4
3/7-10

Shocked bom cheers king savior
party

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:29 pm

I never want to hear anyone criticize me for discussing models at 288+ hrs lol, that storm looks epic verbatim, even better than this last one. I just do not want a storm on the 19th, I had to move my plans till then. Also V Day weekend I need to travel. Any other day bring it on.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:39 pm

James McCanny said that there was a big plasma discharge from the sun which aided the HECS we just had and we had a massive Planetary alignment by Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn are aligning for the first time in over a decade on Jan 23,24th with the Full Moon we went boom. So, when we have such we have huge storms. Sandy had the perigee of the earth, moon, venus and saturn lined up - when we are within 5 degrees of this perigee between these planets we get a big east coast if I recall correctly what I learned from Pro Met Jim Witt and my hs astronomy teacher whom I work with and teaches at FDU.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:41 pm

The big 5 are to be in alignment for most of Feb from the Nat Geo article I found online - this could be big and I mean real big!!!! Planetary alignment has a massive impact of us and our planet.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/12/160120-planet-parade-stargazing-astronomy/

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:59 pm

@amugs wrote:The big 5 are to be in alignment for most of Feb from the Nat Geo article I found online - this could be big and I mean real big!!!! Planetary alignment has a massive impact of us and our planet.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/12/160120-planet-parade-stargazing-astronomy/
Amugs your knowledge is great and your attitude is always great as well. I'm on here more than any,other forum. I go on a few others and it seems they don't think much of febuary being that good. I here that's a cutter that's rain pattern doesn't look good and so on
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 38 Empty i like ur outlook forcast even nick gregory sees a colder and stormer pattern from late next week and maybe snow event next sat bring on the snow snow snow

Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:08 pm

@amugs wrote:As Isotherm so eloquently (to this weenie) stated last night about the N NAO and when you look at today's run it is already more bullish on the Greenland / -NAO height rises. The models should continue to pick up on this with each run and I firmly believe will get colder as well with the -epo going to lock in do the GOA LP retrograding to sw of the Aleutians big time and a huge +pna.

Dates to watch +1/-1 for each in Feb/March as Mugs Stradamus looks into his snow globe weenie style for storms:
5th
8th
10-12th
14-17th PD tres
20-22nd
24-26th Snowicane deuce
3/2-4
3/7-10

Shocked bom cheers king savior
party

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:52 pm

Mugstradamus?

We shall see, but I like it, I like it a lot. The name and the usual optimism.
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