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01/12 Arctic Front Observations

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:29 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is drying out as runs continue, feeling like it will turn to a C-1" iso 2 north if youre lucky.


Certainly cant disagree with that.  My hope is that the moisture depiction is underplayed and the warm atlantic will enhance things..a little.  That prob wont be well modeled until the hi res short range models take a look or even nowcast if that theory holds at all.  Most likely it would only benefit areas north and/or east of NYC
The Atlantic temps will not effect us much since the flow is heavily out the the W/NW. It should not have any effect on the precip shield, or moisture content of the air mass.

Ryan there will be a baroclinic zone associated with the frontal passage. Also Check the 850mb vorticity maps. There def could be isolated areas of enhanced lift which would be aided by the baroclinic zone established. If there is an enhancement I would expect it to be isolated, the warmer ocean temps could in theory aid in enhancing the baroclinic lift under one of these isolated areas of mid level vorticity.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Quietace Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:04 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is drying out as runs continue, feeling like it will turn to a C-1" iso 2 north if youre lucky.


Certainly cant disagree with that.  My hope is that the moisture depiction is underplayed and the warm atlantic will enhance things..a little.  That prob wont be well modeled until the hi res short range models take a look or even nowcast if that theory holds at all.  Most likely it would only benefit areas north and/or east of NYC
The Atlantic temps will not effect us much since the flow is heavily out the the W/NW. It should not have any effect on the precip shield, or moisture content of the air mass.

Ryan there will be a baroclinic zone associated with the frontal passage.  Also Check the 850mb vorticity maps.  There def could be isolated areas of enhanced lift which would be aided by the baroclinic zone established.  If there is an enhancement I would expect it to be isolated, the warmer ocean temps could in theory aid in enhancing the baroclinic lift under one of these isolated areas of mid level vorticity.  
I'm not sure how much significance it will make in such a dry atmosphere; this is not a highly dynamic system. The only way I could see your original theory working is if the bulk of the precip shield and its dynamics is not disrupted by the mountainous terrain. 700mb/850mb VV are quite strong, yet weaken drastically once east of the Apps. While there are pockets of high vorticity and vertical velocity modeled now, which would subjectively cause pockets of higher intensity precipitation, I was talking more area wide, when you reference more micro-scale areas now; which in that case I agree with your thought's.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:32 pm

Its basically a fropa with the center of the LP far to our north meaning a very short duration of precipitation, models have trended drier and we dont have a lot to work with here. We've seen these clippers many times. A squall looking front of snow that drops a quick inch over the course of a few hours and its done. Nothing impressive but will whiten the ground until the sun comes up the next day lol...
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:49 pm

Completely non exciting!!! Shows how bad this winter has been

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:58 pm

Positive vibes moving forward
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Post by snow247 Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:03 pm

I wouldn't write it off just yet.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:56 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is drying out as runs continue, feeling like it will turn to a C-1" iso 2 north if youre lucky.


Certainly cant disagree with that.  My hope is that the moisture depiction is underplayed and the warm atlantic will enhance things..a little.  That prob wont be well modeled until the hi res short range models take a look or even nowcast if that theory holds at all.  Most likely it would only benefit areas north and/or east of NYC
The Atlantic temps will not effect us much since the flow is heavily out the the W/NW. It should not have any effect on the precip shield, or moisture content of the air mass.

Ryan there will be a baroclinic zone associated with the frontal passage.  Also Check the 850mb vorticity maps.  There def could be isolated areas of enhanced lift which would be aided by the baroclinic zone established.  If there is an enhancement I would expect it to be isolated, the warmer ocean temps could in theory aid in enhancing the baroclinic lift under one of these isolated areas of mid level vorticity.  
I'm not sure how much significance it will make in such a dry atmosphere; this is not a highly dynamic system. The only way I could see your original theory working is if the bulk of the precip shield and its dynamics is not disrupted by the mountainous terrain. 700mb/850mb VV are quite strong, yet weaken drastically once east of the Apps. While there are pockets of high vorticity and vertical velocity modeled now, which would subjectively cause pockets of higher intensity precipitation, I was talking more area wide, when you reference more micro-scale areas now; which in that case I agree with your thought's.

Word. I may be grasping at straws, but there are still 3 days for trends one way or the other.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:56 pm

@snow247 wrote:I wouldn't write it off just yet.

Agreed

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:27 pm

Listen a squall line of one inch with 1-4 to 1-2 mile visibility for 20 minutes and some are complaining?? Are u fricking kidding me! Go back 2 weeks ago and you can have that. The potential upcoming is s9 me thing we have not seen in 5 years so.

Never write these off they are in sparse data regions of the NH and will now more by Mon.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:02 pm

Im not complaining, taking anything to tally up the season total which is a pathetic .1 so far...
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Post by snow247 Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:04 pm

18z GFS

01/12 Arctic Front Observations  - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13


Last edited by snow247 on Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:05 pm

Mugs you are correct squall clippers can have intense snow rates in heavier bands theyre nice small little events but in terms of impact or major accumulation they often turn out negligible.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:08 pm

The NAM got it in its LR but it looks a little goofy, I sure like it though lol.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html#picture
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:08 pm

Some mood flakes late Tuesday it looks like.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:11 pm

LOL this may be the most perfect snowmap Ive ever seen, thank you 18z NAM.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=274084
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:13 pm

If that happens THIS year I would never day another word about BDB.
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Post by snow247 Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:58 pm

00z GFS still on board for a few flurries Tuesday night.
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Post by snow247 Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:13 am

A few flurries on the Euro as well
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Post by snow247 Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:31 pm

18z GFS

01/12 Arctic Front Observations  - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_neus_14
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:30 pm

Can we shut this thread down. It's depressing. We're borderline excited for flurries when 2 days ago 1 to 3" was possible?

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Post by snow247 Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:39 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Can we shut this thread down. It's depressing. We're borderline excited for flurries when 2 days ago 1 to 3" was possible?

Yea, this is really a non event at this point. Flurries aren't exactly exciting imo, but that's just me.

Depressing that another chance at decent snow is done.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:09 pm

It's not over yet.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:34 pm

@snow247 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Can we shut this thread down. It's depressing. We're borderline excited for flurries when 2 days ago 1 to 3" was possible?

Yea, this is really a non event at this point. Flurries aren't exactly exciting imo, but that's just me.

Depressing that another chance at decent snow is done.

lol as I said earlier the closest I am getting to snow flakes at the coast is by looking at snow's avatar Sad .. hope our luck changes in the very near future..... What a Face
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 10, 2016 8:02 pm

Let's look at 4he RGEM which does a good job with thwse systems as dies the gfs.

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Post by snow247 Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:42 pm

00z NAM really doesn't give anyone an accumulation from this except maybe a dusting for CP and Doc.
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