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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions Empty Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:20 am

Great morning everyone.  Here is my interpretation of the 00z operational suites from overnight for the Jan 17th-19th threat.  I have labeled 4 key areas (1, 2, 3, 4) that represent energy in the upper levels which will play a pivotal role in how this upcoming threat shakes out.  Also take particular notice of the red line along the west coast of NA.  This is our PNA/EPO ridge, and this too is a key player in the outcome for our 17th-19th threat.  Before reading any further I want everyone to pause and consider for a moment that this might not work out for us.  Whoa, whoa, whoa.... Im not leaning that way at this time, but make sure to consider all options.  

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions Ecmwf_26" />

Lets get started.  First, some foundation.  What is it that we really want to happen?   We want #1 to dive into and phase with #2 at just the right time.  That would mean a perfect phase of northern stream to southern stream somewhere in the vicinity of the Ten Valley, or so, leading to a closed upper level low.  This results in a LP at the surface around the Delmarva that rapidly deepens, aka bombs out, as it heads N to NE from there. result=HECS to BECS.  The Jan 7th 18z GFS model out put results in this very thing: Thumbs up
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions Gfs_z513" />
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions Gfs_z500_vort_us_40
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions Gfs_z514" />
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39

Now lets actually look at our current maps:  Last nights 00z's for GFS, CMC, Euro in that order.  What you may notice is that unlike the 500mb maps for the three global models I posted from yesterday, there is actually some general agreement on some of the players and there general positions. All images represent 500mb valid for the 18z Jan 16th time frame.

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions Gfs_z512" />
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions Cmc_z512" />
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions Ecmwf_26" />

Next lets Look at #4.  This is our clipper system that will swing through Tuesday eve into Wed morning, after it bombs out to our NE and heads up into Eastern Canada and Canadian maritime.  The first thing you should notice is that  all three models are handling this energy(#4 on the maps) differently (intensity and position) once it moves into this region.  This is important because a piece of this energy breaks off as its swirls around #4 and becomes #2 on our maps.  So what happens to #4 will influence #2.

Now lets look at #3.  We will be refering to the Euro maps with this part of the discussion.  This may be a thorn in our side and may hold the true key to this threat.  Reason being is that this energy is diving into the SW CONUS on our maps above undercutting our stacked ridge.  When I say stacked I mean the ridge in the map above starts in the SW CONUS and extends all the way up into NW Canada.  As #3 undercuts and moves over the Rockies it consolidates some and leads to a dampening of the ridging in the SW west.   Looking at the map below the PNA ridging associated with the southern branch is flattening out and decoupling with the ridge to the north associated with the northern branch.  This flattening of the southern branch speeds up the flow and as you can clearly see below #1 is now out ahead of #2.  The energy that is #1 is very potent and still spins up a deep low but the surface maps result in a LP that passes too far S and E of the BM to affect the area.  

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions Ecmwf_27" />

There are still several different scenario with the various pieces I outlined that can affect the outcome.  If the positioning of #4 is centered near 50N/50W then even with a de-amplifying PNA ridge it still may act as a block to turn the system north.  If #3 is slower the ridge stays amped longer and #2 and #1 have time to phase.  These are only two possible changes Id like to see to help our chances, but not the only ones.  

Key take home points:
1) Some general ideas of where the key players will be  for this threat have finally shown up in the op models; however, what you see above will likely cont to evolve.  

2) The energy that is our clipper and eventual #4 is currently sitting up into extreme NW Canada/NE Alaska/Arctic circle.  The energy that is #1 on our maps is in the Pacific Ocean, and the energy that is #3 is even further out in the Pacific Ocean.  The #2 on our maps will be generated only after the clipper bombs out and #4 is generated.  I know a lot to digest there....the point here is that with the key players have not even arrived at the stadium yet so the final score of the game is far from known.  

3) expanding on #3 we are right where we want to be right now with this threat this far out...not in the bulls eye.  

4) Do not discount a final soln that would result in a miss for our area


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:49 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:32 am

Scott excellent analysis as always - we need the GOA LOW to pull west as Frank pointed out and i just posted in the LR thread as you were posting this.  Pump the heights of the PNA and shunt that little vort from crashing in the SW. The Clipper is going to be key cause like you said if it bombs out and we get the PNA and 50/50 LP to act as a block then I think we are in good shape.
This reminds me of teh famous Abbott and Costello skit
WHO is on 1st? WHAT is on second?................................................

THIRD BASE!!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:34 am

Thank you once again for explaining so clearly that we non tech people understand!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:38 am

Nice writeup Scott. My Mo Mo tomorrow will outlines the players on the field as well. There's just no consistency due to the poor sampling of the upper energies. We'll see more waffling for the next 3 days at least.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:47 am

Great write up very informative and we'll explained. It seems a lot has to be just right for a storm lets hope it comes together
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:50 am

Great write up Scott. Clear and concise. I think everything comes together for us. It's actually pretty incredible that the models have been consistent showing a storm. Not even the usual GFS bias of losing a storm has not happened. I believe the models are having a tough time dealing with the -NAO. I expect our storm to trend closer to the coast in the coming days.
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Post by HeresL Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:57 am

I know what the HECS is but what is a BECS?
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:03 am

@HeresL wrote:I know what the HECS is but what is a BECS?
Actually there is no such thing as a BECS (Biblical East Coast Storm). That's just a term that some weather weenie made up. HECS is the highest level that can be reached 18+ inches.


Last edited by nutleyblizzard on Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:04 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by HeresL Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:04 am

That explains it! Thank you, Nutley!
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:08 am

@HeresL wrote:That explains it! Thank you, Nutley!
No problem. Let's hope this pattern can deliver and we get a HECS. God knows we can use one after what we endured during December.
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:16 am

Nice job Scott. Clear and easy to understand. When i saw it was you that started the thread I was fired up because you are always one of the most optimistic on this site. The fact you actually showed what could go wrong stings a little....

Regardless of a Hecs or not I like the fact that multiple threats are starting to show up. Hopefully they don't trend the way this upcoming clipper did inside of 5 days.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:43 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@HeresL wrote:I know what the HECS is but what is a BECS?
Actually there is no such thing as a BECS (Biblical East Coast Storm). That's just a term that some weather weenie made up. HECS is the highest level that can be reached 18+ inches.

On our board it's also the same as HECS=Godzilla and BECS=Frankzilla.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:22 am

excellent job Scott I like how u explained everything by step by step let's hope this will be our storm

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:50 am

Thanks everyone.  @ Skins with blocking it doesn't have to be thread the needle for the big one.  Question is do we get the appropriate blocking?  

@Syo I am still very optimistic for this to come together.  Like Frank and Mugs pointed out the trop forcing around the dateline should help to maintain the PNA ridge longer.  But coming with such a huge potential reward the let down would be equally disappointing on the othe side of the spectrum if it doesn't pan out.  For this reason for myself, and for many others we have to entertain the worst possible soln for two reasons.  1)Because it is def still on the table.  And

2) This should help avoid  
party  shout  party  Brick  party  shout  party  Brick
when watching the individual model runs


Last edited by sroc4 on Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:51 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by crippo84 Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:50 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@HeresL wrote:I know what the HECS is but what is a BECS?
Actually there is no such thing as a BECS (Biblical East Coast Storm). That's just a term that some weather weenie made up. HECS is the highest level that can be reached 18+ inches.

On our board it's also the same as HECS=Godzilla and BECS=Frankzilla.

Haha I thought a HECS = Roidzilla? Either way very informative write up!
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:55 am

@crippo84 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@HeresL wrote:I know what the HECS is but what is a BECS?
Actually there is no such thing as a BECS (Biblical East Coast Storm). That's just a term that some weather weenie made up. HECS is the highest level that can be reached 18+ inches.

On our board it's also the same as HECS=Godzilla and BECS=Frankzilla.

Haha I thought a HECS = Roidzilla? Either way very informative write up!

Your right!!!  
6-12"= MECS=Godzilla
12"-24"=HECS=Roidzilla
24+=BECS=Frankzilla!!  

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions Frankz10" />

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 10, 2016 12:00 pm

Godzilla guarantees 12 inches. 24+ is Roidzilla. 36+ is Frankzilla

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 10, 2016 12:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Nice writeup Scott. My Mo Mo tomorrow will outlines the players on the field as well. There's just no consistency due to the poor sampling of the upper energies. We'll see more waffling for the next 3 days at least.

this is the key there will be ups and downs next 3 days..patience and calmness will need to be had study
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 10, 2016 12:04 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Godzilla guarantees 12 inches. 24+ is Roidzilla. 36+ is Frankzilla

This

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 10, 2016 12:16 pm

Chilla with the 'Zillas peeps. Don't want to jinx it lest it become a big tease and not a monster hecs coming through like breeze through the trees takin' all the leaves.
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Post by essexcountypete Sun Jan 10, 2016 12:41 pm

I appreciate the great overview, and the reality check Scott. Too soon for irrational exuberance, but great potential and much room for hope.

I love this place!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:09 pm

Timing seems faster on todays runs, seems to be screwing things up in a bad way, CMC cuts and warm and GFS is offshore and warm. We'll see what the ECM does, lots of time left.
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Post by jake732 Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:10 pm

My concern is that it'll be rain. Am I wrong with that??
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Post by Quietace Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:23 pm

@jake732 wrote:My concern is that it'll be rain. Am I wrong with that??
What is your reasoning behind this?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:42 pm

The Euro made positive strides at H5. Taking things verbatim at the surface won't serve a purpose right now. What I liked the most was the amplification of the western ridge. Problem will be how the PV in the 50/50 region behaves. Will a smaller lobe break off and cutoff under the block? If so, that prevents the northern jet from digging into the CONUS and providing cold air / phase. There is more work to be done as well with the southern energy. Need to see more consolidation there. 
 
This is beginning to look like a laundry list of things that need to be "cleaned up." We'll see what happens. 

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions 5692a48378384_2016-01-1013.33.22.thumb.jpg.fb0b2e9178bd277fba794ffeee1d65f5

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