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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 12, 2016 6:01 am

6z GFS run looks interesting. Shows an earlier transfer along with a colder look and stronger low which takes the BM track.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:21 am

Euro has a bomb of a coastal but it's with too warm or too far offshore as snow map shows ziltch. Still might be a step in right direction 973mb wouldn't that carry it's own cold.
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:59 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:6z GFS run looks interesting. Shows an earlier transfer along with a colder look and stronger low which takes the BM track.

If you want to see snow with this system and tonight's clipper move to Boston.

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Post by Guest Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:56 am

I just re-read all my posts from the last 24 hours. MAN I'M LOSING IT FAST!!!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:56 am

syosnow94 wrote:I just re-read all my posts from the last 24 hours.  MAN I'M LOSING IT FAST!!!!


LOL it's only natural when you are a snow weenie...hope you are feeling better today!!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:40 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:6z GFS run looks interesting. Shows an earlier transfer along with a colder look and stronger low which takes the BM track.

If you want to see snow with this system and tonight's clipper move to Boston.

I understand you're losing it buddy, many of us are but we can't even get pissed off at Boston this year. They are under 1 inch of snow so far this season, 0.9 inches to be exact. Hopefully it stays that way for them, Bastards.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:54 am

Euro Para

LHV and North some white ??

988 MB
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 5 ECMWF-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f111

Amazing if this was last year with the -epo driving the cold air in we would be jumping around like a bunch of 3 year olds!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:24 am

Rain driven Nor'easter for coast. Still rain with a possible changeover for N&W.

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

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Post by RJB8525 Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:41 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Rain driven Nor'easter for coast. Still rain with a possible changeover for N&W.

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

Lmao thats beautiful Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:56 am

High winds and heavy rain, oh so January....ummm, so at this point pretty much a wrap?

My NWS disco...freezing rain and snow..(Frank you say high winds near coast which I am pretty close but they do not mention wind at all and my forecast comes from La Guardia.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES IS THEN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT COLD AIR CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE. WITH ENOUGH SHALLOW WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINING IN
PLACE...MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS NYC AND LONG ISLAND SHOULD SEE
SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY...THEN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR RETURNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.

THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT SOME OF THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL
SURFACE TROUGHING MAY LINGER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A BRISK...COLD...DAY IS
LIKELY ON MONDAY.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:22 pm

I still hold out hope for this ending up being a decent snow event, which this year means 2-4 inches, primarily for areas at least 40 miles to the North and west of NYC. With the strength and location of the coastal on the 12Z runs it's hard for me to believe that in January there will not be a period of snow from this for some parts of the HV. Of course this winter is like no other, so far at least.

I'm 45 miles north of NYC, that may have swayed my thinking.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:45 pm

Ukie???

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:58 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ukie???

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096

This would mean a major blizzard for the interior, and in 90% of years the coast too. Just not this year with this Hell Nino. (thanks for this term CP I've been running with it)

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:10 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ukie???

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096

This would mean a major blizzard for the interior, and in 90% of years the coast too.  Just not this year with this Hell Nino.  (thanks for this term CP I've been running with it)

It's a Docstox creation Syos. I borrowed it from him.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:40 pm

Major problem is lack of a strong arctic high to the north or west to funnel in cold air, as a result the only chance we have is a much earlier transfer to the secondary, offshore secondary, and much stronger secondary then the primary to pull down its own cold air and fight the mid and low level warming the primary will create. These are the biggest problems now and it will be tough, but not impossible to get an I-95 and NW snowstorm out of this. Right now Id say its still most likely an interior event like the last one and "the coast is toast" but we have a little room for changes and things have trended quite a bit in the past day on the Uk, GFS and EURO, the CMC has been stubborn though but can tend to have a last minute NW bias so we'll see.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:08 pm

GFS is an improvement yet again but not enough to overcome mid level warming, sigh.... Freaking sub 980 low in ideal position and its rain...
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:24 pm

Another step in the right direction but this may be another case of too little too late.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=096&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160112+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:26 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:GFS is an improvement yet again but not enough to overcome mid level warming, sigh.... Freaking sub 980 low in ideal position and its rain...

Simply amazing 24 hours time difference this would be a snow bomb. The mid level is 3C at this time no cold air to overcome it for the coastal plain - interior is still in the game - HV can see a changeover for the last few hours as depicted by euro para - not biting the stupid GooFuS 18Z sorry.

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 5 ECMWF-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f111

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 5 ECMWF-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f114

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:36 pm

This storm screws up the second wave that would have been the hum dinger MLK special I call it - just off the coast and cold air closer than we think - maybe a paste job for HV and NW NJ but coast is toast again. Lots of time and the wave behind it may have a shot later next week - I know 10 days away. IF we can get the PNA to stay POS then we would be in good shape - these dam LP keep crashing into the WC . This totally relates to what SROC was saying about 1.2 - and for teh record it did not warm as fluid dynamic warming but the westerly pushed the water as SROC explained from the warm sector to this colder sector at the surface causing convection which is shunting the PNA ridge - a step back yes but it will revert back.

Interesting JB you can tell is miffed in his daily blogs and from a close source he was so SURE these would be bombs for us on the EC.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:42 pm

@amugs wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:GFS is an improvement yet again but not enough to overcome mid level warming, sigh.... Freaking sub 980 low in ideal position and its rain...

Simply amazing 24 hours time difference this would be a snow bomb. The mid level is 3C at this time no cold air to overcome it for the coastal plain - interior is still in the game - HV can see a changeover for the last few hours as depicted by euro para - not biting the stupid GooFuS 18Z sorry.

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 5 ECMWF-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f111

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 5 ECMWF-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f114

Right, both have shown major steps towards a colder solution today but the GFS shows much more intense upper level warming that the ECM cools quicker, see the surface freezing line is warm even on the EURO, GFS has snow down to the HV and spine of apps. Even the NAM shows lows equal to eachother with one off Hatteras at 996mb in its LR. Problem is lack of a high and problem of models handling complex energies. Really need this secondary to take over quicker if we want any shot even though I95 is pretty much toast although the HV is very much in game.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:47 pm

This from another site who is a met from Millersville and lives next town over.

X is where we need it to bomb to bring us white gold - VA it is about 75 -100 miles to far NE the O. If 0Z guidance starts to get closer to this, trend this way then we MAYBE in the game
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 5 4da5b26cc77b1aa00fd41655efc62f02

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Post by Quietace Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:49 pm

@amugs wrote:This from another site who is a met from Millersville and lives next town over.

X is where we need it to bomb to bring us white gold - VA it is about 75 -100 miles to far NE the O. If 0Z guidance starts to get closer to this, trend this way then we MAYBE in the game
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 5 4da5b26cc77b1aa00fd41655efc62f02
It would also help to see the Prinary weaken(Thus also weaken WAA over the area allowing for temps to be cooler on the onset of intensification).

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:52 pm

It ain't over till its here. It's either go b wet and potentially damaging winds or we get super lucky and get our snowstorm.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:53 pm

I thought storms that bomb like that bring ther own cold air. And we are still 4 days away odder things have happened to get a complete flip.
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:58 pm

one of the problems this whole winter is to get a good cold hp to our north. they keep on sliding off the ma coast and then give us a return s/w flow which warm us up before a storm hits. still a 973 low east of li and no backend snow come on now...
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16
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