NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Page 6 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:59 pm

@algae888 wrote:one of the problems this whole winter is to get a good cold hp to our north. they keep on sliding off the ma coast and then give us a return s/w flow which warm us up before a storm hits. still a 973 low east of li and no backend snow come on now...
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16
this could change in our favor possibly?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by algae888 Tue Jan 12, 2016 6:12 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:one of the problems this whole winter is to get a good cold hp to our north. they keep on sliding off the ma coast and then give us a return s/w flow which warm us up before a storm hits. still a 973 low east of li and no backend snow come on now...
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16
this could change in our favor possibly?
jman yes. however all guidance i mean all, is all rain for the coast. if I didn't not see temp profiles and you showed me this map and 500mb map even with a primary cutter in January I would say it snows 90% of the time. this just isn't our winter.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Guest Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:02 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:one of the problems this whole winter is to get a good cold hp to our north. they keep on sliding off the ma coast and then give us a return s/w flow which warm us up before a storm hits. still a 973 low east of li and no backend snow come on now...
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16
this could change in our favor possibly?

Good news is that storm looks to CRUSH Boston.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:02 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:one of the problems this whole winter is to get a good cold hp to our north. they keep on sliding off the ma coast and then give us a return s/w flow which warm us up before a storm hits. still a 973 low east of li and no backend snow come on now...
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16
this could change in our favor possibly?

Good news is that storm looks to CRUSH Boston.

Is there such thing as a crushing Rain, because that's all they're getting. Maybe interior central Mass does OK.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:58 pm

18z NAVGEM, a sign of a change in CMC tonight?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016011218/navgem_z500_mslp_us_16.png
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:06 pm

The 0z NAM at 84 hours has snow in the HV. Think of the bias it usually has....

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_0z/wrf84.html
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:22 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:The 0z NAM at 84 hours has snow in the HV. Think of the bias it usually has....

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_0z/wrf84.html

I looked at 00z NAM and its well offshore and any precip is all raun except into VT, maybe wxbell maps are not right with the temps? And what is the bias it usually has?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Vinnydula Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:23 pm

Is there any hope in this storm?
Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 770
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:30 pm

Jman surface temps are just above freezing but other levels would probably support wet snow but may pick up as rain on wxbell not sure seems below freezing everywhere else. Otherwise just going to show how its close and fairly cold given the NAM showing a coastal in its LR.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:03 pm

Colder again...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by snow247 Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:04 pm

Still rain. Terrible.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:08 pm

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:09 pm

Still trending, if it keeps up watch out, still some time left and next couple days of runs are critical.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by algae888 Wed Jan 13, 2016 7:32 am

another of many issues with this storm is it's speed. precip starts around midnight and ends around noon the next day and that is with a -nao . storm has no hp and cold to start and then doesn't give cold air a chance on back side as it quickly moves out. fast pac flow (stj) courtesy of el-nino looks like it will overwhelm  any blocking this year. rounds 1 and 2 (dec. and jan.) go to el-nino. let's see if the blocking in February can fight back.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Guest Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:01 am

A storm bombing out from the Delmarva right to over the BM going from 992 to 772 in 24 hours on January 16th starting at night and...........................RAIN!! EF U Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

Officially done with winter on 1/13 at 8 am

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:22 am

syosnow94 wrote:A storm bombing out from the Delmarva right to over the BM going from 992 to 772 in 24 hours on January 16th starting at night and...........................RAIN!!  EF U Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

Officially done with winter on 1/13 at 8 am

If your post verifies and that low goes over the benchmark at 772 mb I think on January 16th we're pretty much done with the tri state area not just winter.

LI, CT, NYC the HV and NNJ will pretty much be wiped out. I'm sure some will survive but probably just the people on high elevations that live underground. At least Jman will go out in style, those 300-400 mph winds will put him in wind heaven. I can only hope you're wrong.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Guest Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:39 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:A storm bombing out from the Delmarva right to over the BM going from 992 to 772 in 24 hours on January 16th starting at night and...........................RAIN!!  EF U Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

Officially done with winter on 1/13 at 8 am

If your post verifies and that low goes over the benchmark at 772 mb I think on January 16th we're pretty much done with the tri state area not just winter.

LI, CT, NYC the HV and NNJ will pretty much be wiped out. I'm sure some will survive but probably just the people on high elevations that live underground. At least Jman will go out in style, those 300-400 mph winds will put him in wind heaven. I can only hope you're wrong.

972. Got me again CP

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by algae888 Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:41 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:A storm bombing out from the Delmarva right to over the BM going from 992 to 772 in 24 hours on January 16th starting at night and...........................RAIN!!  EF U Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

Officially done with winter on 1/13 at 8 am

If your post verifies and that low goes over the benchmark at 772 mb I think on January 16th we're pretty much done with the tri state area not just winter.

LI, CT, NYC the HV and NNJ will pretty much be wiped out. I'm sure some will survive but probably just the people on high elevations that live underground. At least Jman will go out in style, those 300-400 mph winds will put him in wind heaven. I can only hope you're wrong.
CP I think Monday is when people will start to jump after Atlanta and Charlotte get hit with snow from the second wave that bombs out to 980 millibars well east of us
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:50 am

Euro is more progressive with this storm
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:51 am

@algae888 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:A storm bombing out from the Delmarva right to over the BM going from 992 to 772 in 24 hours on January 16th starting at night and...........................RAIN!!  EF U Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

Officially done with winter on 1/13 at 8 am

If your post verifies and that low goes over the benchmark at 772 mb I think on January 16th we're pretty much done with the tri state area not just winter.

LI, CT, NYC the HV and NNJ will pretty much be wiped out. I'm sure some will survive but probably just the people on high elevations that live underground. At least Jman will go out in style, those 300-400 mph winds will put him in wind heaven. I can only hope you're wrong.
CP I think Monday is when people will start to jump after Atlanta and Charlotte get hit with snow from the second wave that bombs out to 980 millibars well east of us

Give up on winter this early? No way Cool
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Guest Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:51 am

@algae888 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:A storm bombing out from the Delmarva right to over the BM going from 992 to 772 in 24 hours on January 16th starting at night and...........................RAIN!!  EF U Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

Officially done with winter on 1/13 at 8 am

If your post verifies and that low goes over the benchmark at 772 mb I think on January 16th we're pretty much done with the tri state area not just winter.

LI, CT, NYC the HV and NNJ will pretty much be wiped out. I'm sure some will survive but probably just the people on high elevations that live underground. At least Jman will go out in style, those 300-400 mph winds will put him in wind heaven. I can only hope you're wrong.
CP I think Monday is when people will start to jump after Atlanta and Charlotte get hit with snow from the second wave that bombs out to 980 millibars well east of us

How great would it be if we miss out on an all-time blizzard due to a lack of cold air, and then miss out 2 days later because of too much cold air and suppression. Kick a man while he's down they say.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:51 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:A storm bombing out from the Delmarva right to over the BM going from 992 to 772 in 24 hours on January 16th starting at night and...........................RAIN!!  EF U Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

Officially done with winter on 1/13 at 8 am

If your post verifies and that low goes over the benchmark at 772 mb I think on January 16th we're pretty much done with the tri state area not just winter.

LI, CT, NYC the HV and NNJ will pretty much be wiped out. I'm sure some will survive but probably just the people on high elevations that live underground. At least Jman will go out in style, those 300-400 mph winds will put him in wind heaven. I can only hope you're wrong.

LMAO!!!! You can keep your 300-400mph winds, that's just a bit too scrazy, shoot walking out during Sandy was scary, but back on topic yes looks like rain and wind if the coastal is close enough. It stinks but we cannot do anything about mudda natures decisions.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:26 pm

Frank where did u get the info on ur scrolls for fri and sat? None of the forecasts much rain and no wind. Do u feel this will change?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 13, 2016 6:10 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank where did u get the info on ur scrolls for fri and sat? None of the forecasts much rain and no wind. Do u feel this will change?

The wind threat has disipated the last few model runs since the storm looks to be further offshore. Probably .5-1.00 inches of rain.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Snowfall Wed Jan 13, 2016 6:43 pm

Ain't that better for Monday quick exit

Snowfall

Posts : 59
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2015-12-31

Back to top Go down

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum