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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 10, 2016 2:12 pm

@jake732 wrote:My concern is that it'll be rain. Am I wrong with that??

Dont worry about temp profiles, look for the storm signal, at around 80 to 140 hours look at track and watch trends (getting closer to this point but given complexity it will be tough) then pre-80 (NAM range and SR models) start looking at temps.
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 10, 2016 2:19 pm

Frank. By your " this is beginning to look like a laundry list of things that need to be cleaned up" post, does this mean a lot still needs to happen and you are less optimistic than earlier?

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 10, 2016 2:54 pm

PLEASE do not take the op runs over these next few days verbatim but look at the H5 maps and the storm signal. Euro carching onto what Frank is talking about with the PNA rising in the west. Hope this trend continues.

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Post by HectorO Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:00 pm

I guess I have to be the downer here. I'm hoping for a NOzilla, because I have a flight coming back that day and don't need delays, especially since I have work the next day. Then again, a couple extra days or even an extra day in FL with family doesn't sound bad.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:07 pm

@HectorO wrote:I guess I have to be the downer here. I'm hoping for a NOzilla, because I have a flight coming back that day and don't need delays, especially since I have work the next day. Then again, a couple extra days or even an extra day in FL with family doesn't sound bad.

What day is your flight? And yeah, there could be worse places to be stuck!

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Post by HectorO Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:09 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@HectorO wrote:I guess I have to be the downer here. I'm hoping for a NOzilla, because I have a flight coming back that day and don't need delays, especially since I have work the next day. Then again, a couple extra days or even an extra day in FL with family doesn't sound bad.

What day is your flight? And yeah, there could be worse places to be stuck!

I leave the 14th and come back the 17th. It's my Grandmother's 80th and since everyone is going to be there it's also a family reunion.
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Post by Snowfall Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:26 pm

Accuweather showing a storm from 16th to 18th they just thinking most is rain with little back end snow but I think at this point were good

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:30 pm

Fwiw 12z JMA

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=274326
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:04 pm

euro ensembles as well as gfs and gem all look good att.
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_7
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_8
frank euro ens seem to be focusing more on the first wave.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:11 pm

Euro ensembles made a huge statement today IMO.  I love the look and the trend on the EPS.  Slows things down a little, beginning to zero in on a LP coming off the Delmarva area, and notice on the last image the majority of the cluster is Sub 995mb. There are several beasts in the cluster.  Also, and this is huge, and key surface feature is the HP.  It is not retreating, but rather building in over the top of the LP. The heart of the HP is diving into the Central plains, but notice the trend is a nose of HP extending east just N of Maine and NH in SE Canada.  Each run the HP is stronger.  The stronger the HP the steeper the gradient beween LP and HP which is key to bombogenesis and also provides a fresh cold air source.  I also like the position of the low to the NE verbatim its 50W and between 55-60N. It too is trending into better position.  Id like it a tad futher S but it'll do for now.  Long way to go but great trends on the EPS Fo Shizzle.  Go Pack!!

Last three Euro ensemble mean plus low locations(12z yest, 00z last night, 12z today).  Nothing wrong with this.
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Eps_sl17" />
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Eps_sl18" />
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Eps_sl19" />

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:21 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Euro ensembles made a huge statement today IMO.  I love the look and the trend on the EPS.  Slows things down a little, beginning to zero in on a LP coming off the Delmarva area, and notice on the last image the majority of the cluster is Sub 995mb. There are several beasts in the cluster.  Also, and this is huge, and key surface feature is the HP.  It is not retreating, but rather building in over the top of the LP.  The heart of the HP is diving into the Central plains, but notice the trend is a nose of HP extending east just N of Maine and NH in SE Canada.   Each run the HP is stronger.  The stronger the HP the steeper the gradient beween LP and HP which is key to bombogenesis and also provides a fresh cold air source.  I also like the position of the low to the NE verbatim its 50W and between 55-60N.  It too is trending into better position.  Id like it a tad futher S but it'll do for now.  Long way to go but great trends on the EPS Fo Shizzle.  Go Pack!!

Last three Euro ensemble mean plus low locations(12z yest, 00z last night, 12z today).  Nothing wrong with this.
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Eps_sl17" />
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Eps_sl18" />
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Eps_sl19" />

One GEM member has a 960mb low tucked well inside the BM, another 970, many others 980s and 990s, plenty of potential here.
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:22 pm

nws forecast for my area next weekend...

Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
waiting on there disco
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:52 pm

18z GFS is a disorganized mess for next weekend. Warm and rain. That ULL in the great lakes is really screwing the pooch on our storm potential!
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Post by hyde345 Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:54 pm

And as usual the 18z GFS OP is OTL.
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Post by Snowfall Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:55 pm

Good news bad news good news bad news

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:04 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:18z GFS is a disorganized mess for next weekend. Warm and rain. That ULL in the great lakes is really screwing the pooch on our storm potential!

Quick with timing has a west cutting primary and a late forming coastal well out to sea, not sure its handling this right.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:12 pm

We all know by now the operational is useless. Right now. Euro ensembles were gr8. I'm throw the 18z put it's a mess no way this ends up like that. Like frank said start look op in 3 days or so for now just go b up and down. I am very optimistic for next weekend for a major storm.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:13 pm

We shouldn't be taking operational runs every time seriously
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:16 pm

Don't like 18zs in general, so we wait for 0z

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Post by Guest Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:29 pm

Great analysis sroc. How can I see the ensembles from my computer instead of just the op

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:34 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Don't like 18zs in general, so we wait for 0z

that too, it always seems to b a mess or a mega extreme.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:36 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Euro ensembles made a huge statement today IMO.  I love the look and the trend on the EPS.  Slows things down a little, beginning to zero in on a LP coming off the Delmarva area, and notice on the last image the majority of the cluster is Sub 995mb. There are several beasts in the cluster.  Also, and this is huge, and key surface feature is the HP.  It is not retreating, but rather building in over the top of the LP.  The heart of the HP is diving into the Central plains, but notice the trend is a nose of HP extending east just N of Maine and NH in SE Canada.   Each run the HP is stronger.  The stronger the HP the steeper the gradient beween LP and HP which is key to bombogenesis and also provides a fresh cold air source.  I also like the position of the low to the NE verbatim its 50W and between 55-60N.  It too is trending into better position.  Id like it a tad futher S but it'll do for now.  Long way to go but great trends on the EPS Fo Shizzle.  Go Pack!!

Last three Euro ensemble mean plus low locations(12z yest, 00z last night, 12z today).  Nothing wrong with this.
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Eps_sl17" />
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Eps_sl18" />
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Eps_sl19" />

Thats sroc, this is very encouraging, and I will watch for the LP locations to consolidate more as the days go on, that will be a good sign to continue in that fashion, and hopefully not too far offshore.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:51 pm

Latest GFS ensembles come out yet???
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:34 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@HeresL wrote:I know what the HECS is but what is a BECS?
Actually there is no such thing as a BECS (Biblical East Coast Storm). That's just a term that some weather weenie made up. HECS is the highest level that can be reached 18+ inches.

On our board it's also the same as HECS=Godzilla and BECS=Frankzilla.

HECS and ROIDZILLAS are 24 inches or more. At least that's what I remember. I thought Godzillas were 12 or more?

Frankanzillas are 36 inches or more?

Various parts of our region have been lucky enough to see both or a few or some regions several times just in the last two decades. Central Park should never be the standard for most of these storms for obvious reasons, lack of accuracy on most big storms being the biggest reason.

The 18 inches for HECS is a designation more for the mid Atlantic than most of the northeast.
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:46 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@HeresL wrote:I know what the HECS is but what is a BECS?
Actually there is no such thing as a BECS (Biblical East Coast Storm). That's just a term that some weather weenie made up. HECS is the highest level that can be reached 18+ inches.

On our board it's also the same as HECS=Godzilla and BECS=Frankzilla.

HECS and Godzillas are 24 inches or more.

Frankanzillas are 36 inches or more.

Various parts of our region have been lucky enough to see both or a few or some regions several times just in the last two decades. Central Park should never be the standard for most of these storms for obvious reasons, lack of accuracy on most big storms being the biggest reason.

The 18 inches for HECS is a designation more for the mid Atlantic than most of the northeast.

If I'm not mistaken, the terms SECS (Significant East Coast snowstorm), MECS (Major East Coast Snowstorm) and HECS (Historic East Coast snowstorm) were originally coined by Dave Tolleris (DT).  Here is what I believe should be the snowfall standards under this:

Boston: SECS: 8", MECS: 16", HECS: 24"
North Shore of Long Island: SECS: 7", MECS: 14", HECS: 21"
NYC to Philly: SECS: 6", MECS: 12", HECS: 18"
Northern Delaware: SECS: 5", MECS: 10", HECS: 15"
Baltimore: SECS: 4", MECS: 8", HECS: 14"
DC: SECS: 3", MECS: 6", HECS: 12"
Richmond, VA (where DT lives): SECS: 2", MECS: 4", HECS: 8"
NC (from Charlotte eastward) SECS: 1", MECS: 3", HECS: 6"
SC: SECS: coating, MECS: 1", HECS: 3"
Atlanta, GA: SECS: coating, MECS: 1", HECS: 2"
Southern and Eastern Georgia: SECS: flurries, MECS: coating, HECS: 1"
Northern FL: SECS: flurries: MECS: 0.1", HECS: 0.5"
Central, FL: SECS: N/A, MECS: flurries, HECS: 0.1"
Southern, FL: SECS: N/A, MECS: N/A, HECS: flurries (i.e. January 1977)

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