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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by billg315 Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:50 pm

Hahaha. I love the inclusion of all 3 regions of Florida.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:51 pm

Let's leave this stuff in banter guys. Cp you are correct.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:34 pm

Cutter on GFS and GGEM
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Post by Radz Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:24 am

Disappointing over night runs... according to guidance, even with such potential it seems we may miss out... hope things come back around
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:07 am

Yeah I don't think this one is going to happen for snow weenies we may just have to wait until Feb. Seems like to many things need to haooen
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:24 am

To say I was disappointed by the trends I saw overnight would be an understatement.  In a nut shell...Our clipper system never fully phases with the energy I labeled #2 on my write up at the beginning of this thread.  Instead of #2 being a piece breaking off of #4 which dives down into the CONUS to potentially phase with the southern branch it remains a separat potent piece of N energy that closes off in S central Canada at 500mb. Like Frank mentioned in his Mo Mo this effectively closes off the artic air mass for our system, main reason being is the ridge in the west is collapsing. In addition and equally, if not more important in the equation, the PNA ridge, ends up flattening out as both Frank and I pointed out in our blogs yesterday as a possibility given the energy I labeled#3 in my original write up.  The collapsing ridge means not enough amplification out west to drive the northern energy to dig into the conus.  Instead it sits and spins in S Canada.  A collapsing ridge out west also flattens out and speeds up the flow of the southern branch and allows a piece of energy to come out even earlier than the time frame we are looking at.  By the 15th-16th we now have a primary cutter up into the Ohio valley leading to us being warm sectored because of our amped STJ.  When we were looking at an ideal set up, an amplified ridge out west led to a strong Canadian HP building in well ahead of this cutting energy as well as a digging northern jet.  This effectively suppressed this southern energy energy in the GOM region from coming out until the 17th-18th.  Instead a weaker HP is being modeled now and further north and west, the northern branch closes off and doesnt dig, and energy is coming out of the GOM earlier leading to a primary that cuts.  The rain from yesterday is in essence the same effing set up.  Ugg

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Ecmwf_28" />

Even the EPS is trying to go towards that soln:
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Eps_ms14" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by Guest Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:53 am

HELL NINO WINS AGAIN!!!  SEE YA! Mad Mad

And if it's not el nino, I don't care what it is cause it still sucks!!

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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:58 am

So actually the 15th-16th is independent of the 17th-19th.  Here is the same set up I show yesterday by 18z on the 16th.
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Ecmwf_30" />

Still need 2 to dig into 1, but 3 collapses the ridge.

But as you can see by the 18th trough still pos tilt and OTS soln.  

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Ecmwf_31" />
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Ecmwf_32" />

Its not over just yet folks but don't hold your breath for now.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:22 am

I am as disappointed as the next guy/gal, but this threat is not over at all.  Please keep disappointment posts, and whining in the banter thread.  If posted here it will be deleted. Thank you.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:56 am

Looking at the EPS Para from OZ runs it is interesting - maybe the only postives rom last nights run

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Eps_mslpa_exnamer_21

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Eps_mslpa_exnamer_23

We shall see if this new experimental model that is going to take over for the EURO on March 8th is the real deal. Still time with this.

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Post by Snowfall Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:03 am

Sroc for some reason I think changes for good start tonight

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Post by frank 638 Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:31 am

it ain't over till the fat lady sings

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:44 am

Bad trends last night, seems like we either get a cutter or a Miller B where the secondary is a hugger or inland runner or too warm or disconnected energies like the GFS and one goes far out to sea. Not over yet but another blow in this disappointing winter.
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:57 am

Isotherm:
As I posted above gives some hope here and I said that we wait until this clipper goes by tomorrow night.

The 00z ECMWF parallel wouldn't take much change to make things interesting. Things don't look great right now, but I'd hold off on the bridge jumping for a couple more days (for the weekend threat in particular). The trends/changes you see over the next several runs will be important as we approach < 5 days. One of the significant differences I noticed with the Euro para and the 06z GFS is the orientation / placement of the Canadian PV. The Euro para is 500-600 miles further south with the western extension, thus resulting in a further south short wave track. GFS, on the other hand, is so far north with the western PV lobe that it actually directs the s/w northeastward. Of course, the "hope" here is that the ECMWF para, which will be becoming the new Euro, possesses superior physics in deciphering a D5-6 pattern. However, the GFS could very well be correct too (not overly confident in this model as of recent). But people should realize that we're still fairly far in advance, and the Euro parallel was close to an interesting result. We'll know in a couple days which model was more accurate with the PV handling.

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:22 am

today's gfs so far looks better at hr 114 compared to 6z gfs...

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_z500_vort_us_20
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_z500_vort_us_21
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:27 am

we want the 500mb low to close off over Kentucky that's usually when our biggest storms happen. not there yet but a trend in the right direction. that's about a 300 mile shift from 6z. far from over
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:31 am

still rain for us but snow for the far n/w suburbs. let's see what the ensembles show...
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:32 am

GFS still shows rain for us next weekend. Transfer is too late. Still though there were improvements today. Shortwave was slower ejecting out thus causing more interaction with northern stream. It's not over yet. Trend is your friend!
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:01 pm

ukie has the low further east than gfs/cmc. looks cold enough but I do not have surface maps...
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_120_0000
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:04 pm

@algae888 wrote:ukie has the low further east than gfs/cmc. looks cold enough but I do not have surface maps...
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_120_0000
Regardless if its rain or snow it doesn't matter at this point. That's a big improvement! Where the heck is Frank???
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:08 pm

@algae888 wrote:still rain for us but snow for the far n/w suburbs. let's see what the ensembles show...
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Gfs10" />

Im not a huge fan of analyizing individual runs, but a 988mb primary LP just N of NE Ohio on the image above seems almost impossible given the 500mb vort maps for the same time frame Verbatim.  Is it just me?  I would anticipate the LP to be located out ahead of the main Vort somewhere in the black circle; not to the NW of it.  Also hopefully the energy cont to trend towards holding back following with the GFS's normal proggressive bias with southern stream energy.  That might allow the area I have in red circle to dig into it better.  The ridge out west looks more amped as well.  Again I hate overanayizing individual model runs, but there are some encouraging signs on the GFS.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Empty Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:20 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:still rain for us but snow for the far n/w suburbs. let's see what the ensembles show...
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 <a href=Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 Gfs10" />

Im not a huge fan of analyizing individual runs, but a 988mb primary LP just N of NE Ohio on the image above seems almost impossible given the 500mb vort maps for the same time frame Verbatim.  Is it just me?  I would anticipate the LP to be located out ahead of the main Vort somewhere in the black circle; not to the NW of it.  Also hopefully the energy cont to trend towards holding back following with the GFS's normal proggressive bias with southern stream energy.  That might allow the area I have in red circle to dig into it better.  The ridge out west looks more amped as well.  Again I hate overanayizing individual model runs, but there are some encouraging signs on the GFS.

See this is why I read here after looking at the models, at a glance the GFS looked boring and nothing like past runs.  But its very possible they just are not handle this right.  I am so hoping for a suprpise like 2009/10 Christmas storm I believe BDB?  It was one day out that it came in.  Who knows right?  And Frank made a somewhat joke he wasn't go post for 2 days, lol. Also said had hectic day today hence putting the mo mo out last night.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 11, 2016 1:46 pm

EURO shows a 982 bomb at the benchmark. It depicts rain changing to snow towards the end of the event. We need that trough to dig a little more and then we'll be in business. Big improvements today!!!
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 11, 2016 1:49 pm

yes. still warm though. look at the diff at 500mb...
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 F120
today12z
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 F144
yesterday 12z
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 11, 2016 1:52 pm

It amplifies the ridge in the West more as it has the LP or GOA LP retrograding.

Vort slower to crash into PAC on this Lets see what he ens show.

Still plenty of time.

Holy COLD on Monday morning and through next week - doesn't look like we get above freezing
Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f168

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