Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
yes. still warm though. look at the diff at 500mb...
today12z
yesterday 12z
today12z
yesterday 12z
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
It amplifies the ridge in the West more as it has the LP or GOA LP retrograding.
Vort slower to crash into PAC on this Lets see what he ens show.
Still plenty of time.
Holy COLD on Monday morning and through next week - doesn't look like we get above freezing
Vort slower to crash into PAC on this Lets see what he ens show.
Still plenty of time.
Holy COLD on Monday morning and through next week - doesn't look like we get above freezing
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
I will have a better update later in the evening, but from what I am seeing in the latest trends, the ULL over southern Canada is allowing heights to rise over the east coast which allows the southern energy to cut to our west. Do to the block to our north from the 50-50, it tries to transfer off the coast (Miller B) but there is no cold air available because of the initial cut. Unfortunately I have a feeling this will end up being another warm storm for most folks. I alluded to this in the Mo Mo. Hopefully trends change over the next 48 hours. Maybe the storm bombs sooner and cold air gets pulled in, but with no northern stream energy phasing in that will be difficult to accomplish. Very frustrating we may not see any snowstorms from a pretty anomalous -NAO event. The NAO is expected to rise to positive by next week. I expected blocking to come in February (that is why my full-scale pattern change was listed as Week 4 of January) after the SSWE. We'll see...
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
Need the Primary to close off as SROC said by the Tenn/KY area and stop it from surging the warm air up. Amazing how we are in between both cold arctic air masses when this storm is projected to occur - IF it slowed down to Monday as originally shown it would be a big snowstorm hands down IMO BUT the time frame is up now.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
The fact that Frank took the banner down is all that needs to be said. Can't lock this up yet but Euro was a nice little coastal but there is no snow on wxbell maps except way into northern NY, not even HV gets anything.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:The fact that Frank took the banner down is all that needs to be said. Can't lock this up yet but Euro was a nice little coastal but there is no snow on wxbell maps except way into northern NY, not even HV gets anything.
Yup just noticed that - so far out too amazing.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
amugs wrote:jmanley32 wrote:The fact that Frank took the banner down is all that needs to be said. Can't lock this up yet but Euro was a nice little coastal but there is no snow on wxbell maps except way into northern NY, not even HV gets anything.
Yup just noticed that - so far out too amazing.
Awesome. Fired up!!
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
The primary is too strong in relation to the secondary and is allowing the flow to warm up before the secondary begins cranking and lowering heights its too late for us as frank said. If it bombs out earlier or can get down to 980s or below like some ens members were showing then maybe it could pull in cold air fast enough.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
CMC ensembles click hour 120, not a terrible look, as I was saying a complete transfer scenario is still on the table if it phases and bombs out.
https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm
https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
Even if the System rapidly deepens, It maters not the strength of the Secondary, but the intensity and position of the primary. No one on the MA/SNE coast has even the slightest probability if the primary drives into the GL and the associated WF is equivalently far north. The Secondary would be effectively shut off from the NS and any air source that is equivalent in providing temperatures low enough for frozen precipitation.NjWeatherGuy wrote:The primary is too strong in relation to the secondary and is allowing the flow to warm up before the secondary begins cranking and lowering heights its too late for us as frank said. If it bombs out earlier or can get down to 980s or below like some ens members were showing then maybe it could pull in cold air fast enough.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
Euro low positions are pretty consolidated but very close to coast on many. Still storm signal but will the cold be there?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
syosnow94 wrote:amugs wrote:jmanley32 wrote:The fact that Frank took the banner down is all that needs to be said. Can't lock this up yet but Euro was a nice little coastal but there is no snow on wxbell maps except way into northern NY, not even HV gets anything.
Yup just noticed that - so far out too amazing.
Awesome. Fired up!!
I am assuming this is sarcasm?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:Euro low positions are pretty consolidated but very close to coast on many. Still storm signal but will the cold be there?
Thats a perfect spot for the I-95 corridor and interior. Depends on primary involvement.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
We need a high to our north
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:Euro low positions are pretty consolidated but very close to coast on many. Still storm signal but will the cold be there?
Clusters of LP are PERFECT!!!!!! BEAUTIFUL!!!! But not enough cold air around even with the perfect "blocking"!!! Any day the following week or the 3 days leading up to it perfect. Just not that exact day at that exact time.
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
Not with most of the primary's in the GL. That is not a good look.NjWeatherGuy wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Euro low positions are pretty consolidated but very close to coast on many. Still storm signal but will the cold be there?
Thats a perfect spot for the I-95 corridor and interior. Depends on primary involvement.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
Haha I love how people think when I remove the scroll they think the storm threat is over. Well, you're partially right. My confidence level is below 25% if there is no scroll. That said, some ensemble members still make this storm interesting for interior sections so it's worth watching.
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:Haha I love how people think when I remove the scroll they think the storm threat is over. Well, you're partially right. My confidence level is below 25% if there is no scroll. That said, some ensemble members still make this storm interesting for interior sections so it's worth watching.
And if you haven't looked check the euro para. Different than the op. Much closer. In no way is this done.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
Euro para closes off at 500mb over Nantucket at hr 126. If it trends 6-12 hrs earlier things could get interesting. In theory the euro para is supposed to be superior to all other models in its physics. It's a long shot but not over.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
sroc4 wrote:Euro para closes off at 500mb over Nantucket at hr 126. If it trends 6-12 hrs earlier things could get interesting. In theory the euro para is supposed to be superior to all other models in its physics. It's a long shot but not over.
JB harping on the para - says it is a superior model and has steadfast been using it in his analysis - it is schooling teh whole GFS package. Need that primary to transfer around KY and die off - if this stupid storm was to come say Monday when first projected the 18Z GFS would have nailed this - as crazy as this sounds. At my sons hockey game intermission - maps to see??
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
Sorry mugs. Can't post the images. I'm on my way to my own hockey game at the moment.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
Here you go Mugs
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
Thanks
Mother of God it is close, come on Para u are all we've got and it is a decent back end shot. Hope this trend continues manana. Thanks guys.
Mother of God it is close, come on Para u are all we've got and it is a decent back end shot. Hope this trend continues manana. Thanks guys.
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
Well the problem is since you have a ULL west of us the surface is torched (and probably some mid levels). Even with a better phase we may still struggle. Tough to tell...we'll see.
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
So is this a done deal for coastal areas to be too warm?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
00z GFS shows why north of NYC members shouldn't give up on this weekend just yet. So close.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions
0z GFS shows some hope of the trend possibly reversing. Of course ill probably jinx it and if I do Im truly sorry. When I wake up tomorrow Ill be anxious to see what the 12z runs show, off from work, and what this little clipper delivers.
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