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Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:00 pm

I will have a better update later in the evening, but from what I am seeing in the latest trends, the ULL over southern Canada is allowing heights to rise over the east coast which allows the southern energy to cut to our west. Do to the block to our north from the 50-50, it tries to transfer off the coast (Miller B) but there is no cold air available because of the initial cut. Unfortunately I have a feeling this will end up being another warm storm for most folks. I alluded to this in the Mo Mo. Hopefully trends change over the next 48 hours. Maybe the storm bombs sooner and cold air gets pulled in, but with no northern stream energy phasing in that will be difficult to accomplish. Very frustrating we may not see any snowstorms from a pretty anomalous -NAO event. The NAO is expected to rise to positive by next week. I expected blocking to come in February (that is why my full-scale pattern change was listed as Week 4 of January) after the SSWE. We'll see...

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:14 pm

Need the Primary to close off as SROC said by the Tenn/KY area and stop it from surging the warm air up. Amazing how we are in between both cold arctic air masses when this storm is projected to occur - IF it slowed down to Monday as originally shown it would be a big snowstorm hands down IMO BUT the time frame is up now.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:25 pm

The fact that Frank took the banner down is all that needs to be said. Can't lock this up yet but Euro was a nice little coastal but there is no snow on wxbell maps except way into northern NY, not even HV gets anything.
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:The fact that Frank took the banner down is all that needs to be said.  Can't lock this up yet but Euro was a nice little coastal but there is no snow on wxbell maps except way into northern NY, not even HV gets anything.

Yup just noticed that - so far out too amazing.

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Post by Guest Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:39 pm

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:The fact that Frank took the banner down is all that needs to be said.  Can't lock this up yet but Euro was a nice little coastal but there is no snow on wxbell maps except way into northern NY, not even HV gets anything.

Yup just noticed that - so far out too amazing.

Awesome. Fired up!! party party

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:45 pm

The primary is too strong in relation to the secondary and is allowing the flow to warm up before the secondary begins cranking and lowering heights its too late for us as frank said. If it bombs out earlier or can get down to 980s or below like some ens members were showing then maybe it could pull in cold air fast enough.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:58 pm

CMC ensembles click hour 120, not a terrible look, as I was saying a complete transfer scenario is still on the table if it phases and bombs out.

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 11, 2016 3:23 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:The primary is too strong in relation to the secondary and is allowing the flow to warm up before the secondary begins cranking and lowering heights its too late for us as frank said. If it bombs out earlier or can get down to 980s or below like some ens members were showing then maybe it could pull in cold air fast enough.
Even if the System rapidly deepens, It maters not the strength of the Secondary, but the intensity and position of the primary. No one on the MA/SNE coast has even the slightest probability if the primary drives into the GL and the associated WF is equivalently far north. The Secondary would be effectively shut off from the NS and any air source that is equivalent in providing temperatures low enough for frozen precipitation.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 11, 2016 4:12 pm

Euro low positions are pretty consolidated but very close to coast on many. Still storm signal but will the cold be there?

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 4 Eps_sl12
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 11, 2016 4:13 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:The fact that Frank took the banner down is all that needs to be said.  Can't lock this up yet but Euro was a nice little coastal but there is no snow on wxbell maps except way into northern NY, not even HV gets anything.

Yup just noticed that - so far out too amazing.

Awesome.  Fired up!! party party

I am assuming this is sarcasm?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:56 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Euro low positions are pretty consolidated but very close to coast on many.  Still storm signal but will the cold be there?

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 4 Eps_sl12

Thats a perfect spot for the I-95 corridor and interior. Depends on primary involvement.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:12 pm

We need a high to our north
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Euro low positions are pretty consolidated but very close to coast on many.  Still storm signal but will the cold be there?

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 4 Eps_sl12

Clusters of LP are PERFECT!!!!!!  BEAUTIFUL!!!!
 But not enough cold air around even with the perfect "blocking"!!!  Any day the following week or the 3 days leading up to it perfect.  Just not that exact day at that exact time. Neutral Neutral Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:32 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Euro low positions are pretty consolidated but very close to coast on many.  Still storm signal but will the cold be there?

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 4 Eps_sl12

Thats a perfect spot for the I-95 corridor and interior. Depends on primary involvement.
Not with most of the primary's in the GL. That is not a good look.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:58 pm

Haha I love how people think when I remove the scroll they think the storm threat is over. Well, you're partially right. My confidence level is below 25% if there is no scroll. That said, some ensemble members still make this storm interesting for interior sections so it's worth watching.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:56 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Haha I love how people think when I remove the scroll they think the storm threat is over. Well, you're partially right. My confidence level is below 25% if there is no scroll. That said, some ensemble members still make this storm interesting for interior sections so it's worth watching.

And if you haven't looked check the euro para. Different than the op. Much closer. In no way is this done.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:10 pm

Euro para closes off at 500mb over Nantucket at hr 126. If it trends 6-12 hrs earlier  things could get interesting. In theory the euro para is supposed to be superior to all other models in its physics. It's a long shot but not over.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:37 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Euro para closes off at 500mb over Nantucket at hr 126. If it trends 6-12 hrs earlier  things could get interesting. In theory the euro para is supposed to be superior to all other models in its physics. It's a long shot but not over.

JB harping on the para - says it is a superior model and has steadfast been using it in his analysis - it is schooling teh whole GFS package. Need that primary to transfer around KY and die off - if this stupid storm was to come say Monday when first projected the 18Z GFS would have nailed this - as crazy as this sounds. At my sons hockey game intermission - maps to see??

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:27 pm

Sorry mugs. Can't post the images. I'm on my way to my own hockey game at the moment.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:35 pm

Here you go Mugs

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 4 ECMWF-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f120

Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 4 ECMWF-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f123


Jan 16th--The tease--Observations and Discussions - Page 4 ECMWF-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f126

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:00 pm

Thanks
Mother of God it is close, come on Para u are all we've got and it is a decent back end shot. Hope this trend continues manana. Thanks guys.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:16 pm

Well the problem is since you have a ULL west of us the surface is torched (and probably some mid levels). Even with a better phase we may still struggle. Tough to tell...we'll see.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:00 pm

So is this a done deal for coastal areas to be too warm?
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Post by snow247 Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:15 pm

00z GFS shows why north of NYC members shouldn't give up on this weekend just yet. So close.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:07 am

0z GFS shows some hope of the trend possibly reversing. Of course ill probably jinx it and if I do Im truly sorry. When I wake up tomorrow Ill be anxious to see what the 12z runs show, off from work, and what this little clipper delivers.
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