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State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:02 pm

Scott posted his update (I haven't read yet as I got home a little while ago then wrote this) and here is mine.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2016/01/january-pattern-stratosphere-update.html


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:17 am; edited 2 times in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:04 pm

Also if you're someone who is interested in the Stratosphere I recommend following Recretos on Twitter. He makes his own graphics, 3 of which are in this blog, and posts valuable information.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:20 pm

Thank you Frank for always keeping us informed with the latest information...
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:17 am

In the write up I touched on a possible MLK Day storm. Today's 12z GFS got VERY close to showing a huge coastal storm. It clips the coast with snow. The setup is NOT great but it's close enough that it deserves its own thread.

State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f108

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:21 am

There is a nice ridge spike in the west, but the southern stream vort is too far off the coast. Somehow, we have to reel it closer to the coast and the best way to do that is by a phase with the northern stream vort. You can see there is SOME partial phasing on the 12z GFS.

State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm Capture

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:24 am

Wow 959 not far from benchmark! This came out of left field, are other models showing this? Temper myself, temper myself lol

State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm Gfs_ms14

and is this the thread for this potential storm Frank? Boston of course makes 6+ We get 2-4 or 2-5 (most more east you go) with this run, shoot I will take it but come a bit further west plz, and come on the other models.
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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:24 am

975@ our latitude, 959 @ Bostons latitude. Potent system with potent UL energy associated with it.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:24 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:There is a nice ridge spike in the west, but the southern stream vort is too far off the coast. Somehow, we have to reel it closer to the coast and the best way to do that is by a phase with the northern stream vort. You can see there is SOME partial phasing on the 12z GFS.

State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm Capture

Frank your our captain reel her in!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:25 am

@Quietace wrote:975@ our latitude, 959 @ Bostons latitude. Potent system with potent UL energy associated with it.

Yeah I just realized how nuts a bomb out that is, who was it that told me this would be gone from the gfs at 18 yesterday.....hmmm
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:30 am

CMC has nothing because the storm on Friday night is too explosive which lowers heights and prevents the southern stream from amplifying and turning up the coast.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:35 am

Do you think that will be the case? Wow your model program is fast, even tropical tidbits hasn't loaded yet.  What does it show for Sat? And doesn't the CMC often bomb things wayyy to much or is that just with the tropics?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:44 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Do you think that will be the case? Wow your model program is fast, even tropical tidbits hasn't loaded yet.  What does it show for Sat? And doesn't the CMC often bomb things wayyy to much or is that just with the tropics?

The energies are not well sampled at the moment. I think it's important for the Saturday storm to be as far east as possible for Monday to work out. And yes, CMC has this bias with all storms.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:46 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:CMC has nothing because the storm on Friday night is too explosive which lowers heights and prevents the southern stream from amplifying and turning up the coast.
Frank I noticed the 12zGFS Saturday storm came in weaker at hour 78 (980mb) vs hour 84 (972mb) on the 6z run. That keeps higher heights on the east coast which in turn why we see a better run for the MLK storm.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:48 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Do you think that will be the case? Wow your model program is fast, even tropical tidbits hasn't loaded yet.  What does it show for Sat? And doesn't the CMC often bomb things wayyy to much or is that just with the tropics?

The energies are not well sampled at the moment. I think it's important for the Saturday storm to be as far east as possible for Monday to work out. And yes, CMC has this bias with all storms.

Yeah I figured this will be a last minute thing, we need Fri/Sat storm to move out to be truly sure of what will happen.
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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:17 pm

No other guidance has this storm except the Gfs. I'm not biting on this one until other guidance show somethin. the UKIE is a miss today also. If this storm were to occur we need a weaker and quicker storm for Saturday. the GFS and euro have been trending that way let's see what the euro shows today
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:54 pm

NOt for nothing but the Jan17th-19th thread would have still been ok for this threat seeing is that it comes up near the 17th-18th. Just sayin

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:56 pm

@sroc4 wrote:NOt for nothing but the Jan17th-19th thread would have still been ok for this threat seeing is that it comes up near the 17th-18th. Just sayin

Good pt sroc, I also noticed no one seems to be locking threads anymore, any reason?
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:12 pm

@sroc4 wrote:NOt for nothing but the Jan17th-19th thread would have still been ok for this threat seeing is that it comes up near the 17th-18th. Just sayin

I actually thought to myself that back last weekend when the thread was started it was for the 17th to 19th time frame. The storm we've been talking about is on the 16th. The potential Monday storm would be on the 18th which fits the original timeline. IS IT POSSIBLE THIS MONDAY THREAT IS THE ORIGINAL STORM THAT THE MODELS LOST INSIDE OF 7 DAYS AND NOW THE GFS TRIES TO BRING BACK ( Boxing Day) JUST ASKING!! Shocked Shocked

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:18 pm

The EURO shears the southern stream energy out. We get snow from the inverted trough instead.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:27 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:NOt for nothing but the Jan17th-19th thread would have still been ok for this threat seeing is that it comes up near the 17th-18th. Just sayin

I actually thought to myself that back last weekend when the thread was started it was for the 17th to 19th time frame.  The storm we've been talking about is on the 16th.  The potential Monday storm would be on the 18th which fits the original timeline. IS IT POSSIBLE THIS MONDAY THREAT IS THE ORIGINAL STORM THAT THE MODELS LOST INSIDE OF 7 DAYS AND NOW THE GFS TRIES TO BRING BACK ( Boxing Day)  JUST ASKING!! Shocked Shocked

I would say its possible. When we go back in time there was so much energy swirling about at 500mb that modesl had no idea where to focus. Somewhere along the way there was a second piece of energy that was now coming out earlier that models where able to hone in on. But there is still a ton of complex 500mb energy that needs to interact, most of which is not over land yet. Bottom line is keep all scenarios on the table, until the fat lady sings...and I dont hear no fat lady for the moment.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:31 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO shears the southern stream energy out. We get snow from the inverted trough instead.

So just because the Euro didn't show it like GFS, the energy is there and its still possible we see a change in the Euro in coming days?

sroc, that would be crazy we all forgot about the 18th storm, if it reard its head again now...though the cmc and Euro are not at all enthused.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:34 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO shears the southern stream energy out. We get snow from the inverted trough instead.

Frank. Looks like Euro has 3 seperate pieces of energy as of 18z on the 16th. Nearly 24 hrs later the southen most piece drifts SE into the GOM and the middle piece is what is sheared out.

[img]State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm Ecmwf_33[/img]
[img]State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm Ecmwf_34[/img]


The GFS on the other hand consolidates both pieces of energy into one much stronger southern vort that raises heights and trys to tilt the trough.

[img]State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm Gfs_z515[/img]

With GFS's progressive bias, and the Euro bias of holding energy back could we be seeing this eventually come together? I am certainly not going to go all in but we aint 10days out.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:44 pm

We will know on the 17th when the first one passes lol, I sure hope it can, wouldn't that be the bees knees : )
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:51 pm

This will be interesting moving forward but not big hopes since teh PAC is a mess and there are so many vorts swirling around as SROC has noted. How does a vort get sheared in a NINO pattern this strong? Perplexing to me if it is indeed correct. Euro has hours of light snow like 12 on its 12 z run. Para gives us 9 hours of light snow on Monday.
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State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm ECMWF-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f135

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State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm ECMWF-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f141

State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm ECMWF-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f144




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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:57 pm

Funny mugs that the euro snow nap shows little if any snow from that. Fwuw accuwx has a few inches snow sun. Not sure why
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