State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
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Abba701
billg315
NjWeatherGuy
Snowfall
oldtimer
jake732
amugs
sroc4
algae888
nutleyblizzard
Quietace
jmanley32
weatherwatchermom
Frank_Wx
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
This will be interesting moving forward but not big hopes since teh PAC is a mess and there are so many vorts swirling around as SROC has noted. How does a vort get sheared in a NINO pattern this strong? Perplexing to me if it is indeed correct. Euro has hours of light snow like 12 on its 12 z run. Para gives us 9 hours of light snow on Monday.
Para
Para
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Funny mugs that the euro snow nap shows little if any snow from that. Fwuw accuwx has a few inches snow sun. Not sure why
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
i just have a good feeling about this storm. i necer like the storms 10 days out they NEVER EVER happen
Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Oh I see mugs that's the euro Para my bad.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Nick fox5. Met. MLK Storm OTS. He said the latest data will stay offshore
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Funny how it's so cold but gonna rain 24 hours from now amazing
Snowfall- Posts : 59
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Maybe not even according to 18z gfs
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Feel like two storms close together never work out well, now that this upcoming threat trended colder (not enough to our benefit...) I think heights drop and a trough forms in the east possibly too deep and may force this threat OTS and shear apart the energy. We shall see...
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Snowfall wrote:Funny how it's so cold but gonna rain 24 hours from now amazing
24 hours from now is thursday night, the rain (if there is any) is supposed to be friday night into sat according to Frank and the models.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
does anyone know if any models are showing a sunday night coastal anymore?
Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
jake732 wrote:does anyone know if any models are showing a sunday night coastal anymore?
It seems like the models I've seen are leaning toward taking it out to sea south of here. But others on here have access to more models than me so they may have better input.
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
The goods news with this event is air temps will be cold cold from the Arctic Front that ratios will be high - in the 15:1 - 20:1 range. The GFS has the 500mb vort closed off over NY state while the EURO is a bit further south so it is able to tap into some Atlantic moisture. The further south this gets, the better our shot for accumulating snow. I want to see it where the red X is but because the flow is so fast and the western ridge is not that amplified I have a feeling this will be nothing more than just a coating to 2 inches across the area. Most people would take 1-2 inches anyway. This is a tricky forecast.
GFS does not show much. EURO more impressive.
EURO
GFS does not show much. EURO more impressive.
EURO
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Is that with the mlk Storm or its separate
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Snowfall wrote:Is that with the mlk Storm or its separate
Same storm. Late Sunday into early Monday.
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:Snowfall wrote:Is that with the mlk Storm or its separate
Same storm. Late Sunday into early Monday.
The to be coastal is ots, if you look far south on the run, I assume you expect it to stay that way?
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
jmanley32 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Snowfall wrote:Is that with the mlk Storm or its separate
Same storm. Late Sunday into early Monday.
The to be coastal is ots, if you look far south on the run, I assume you expect it to stay that way?
Models are def trying to keep the STJ out of the equation. Yesterdays beast on the 12z GFS is fading fast. 12z GFS yest seemed to consolidate all energy phasing the N with the south; tilting the trough neg, and brining it up the coast:
" />
Whereas the Euro yesterday kept everything seperate:
" />
" />
I suppose not entirely off the table, but a phase like 12GFS yest is unlikely to me given the trends so the main energy in the S branch looks to keep the surface LP OTS. GFS has gone to the keeping things seperate.
12 GFS today looks like this.
" />
I think we have to hope for one of two options. An inverted trough, or as JB pointed out this morning a wave of LP redeveloping along the arctic front that intensifys. Right now the 12z GFS and the 00zEuro shows this Low developing over Nantucket. We need it to pop further south, somehwere where I marked X. I think this might enhance QPF amts a little as it can tap atlantic moisture in a further S position.
" />
Like Frank mentioned the center of the PV needs to sink a little further S for this to happen. The vorts rotating around the PV is what triggers that weaker wave in the furst place. So one could visualize if the center of the PV were further S so would the vorticity associated with it.
Also as Frank points out ratios could be quite high so even a mere 0.25" of QPF could mean 3-5" if the ratios were 15-20:1 verbatim. I am pretty sure we all would sign for that at this point. We shall see what 12z Euro looks like shortly
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
And also like Frank points out the ridge out west plays a big role as well. For fear of getting burned again I decline to lean any direction ATT.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
sroc4 wrote:And also like Frank points out the ridge out west plays a big role as well. For fear of getting burned again I decline to lean any direction ATT.
Great analysis sroc. I'll translate for all the rest of us. Screwed again!! This time not because of a storm cutting, but basically because the energy gets suppressed south. Winter of 2015/16. the only excitement now is to see how Friday the 22nd unravels as we get closer.
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
syosnow94 wrote:sroc4 wrote:And also like Frank points out the ridge out west plays a big role as well. For fear of getting burned again I decline to lean any direction ATT.
Great analysis sroc. I'll translate for all the rest of us. Screwed again!! This time not because of a storm cutting, but basically because the energy gets suppressed south. Winter of 2015/16. the only excitement now is to see how Friday the 22nd unravels as we get closer.
As I stated, and Frank it be great if you chime in sroc al mugs etc. but all models are showing a coastal this far out (22nd) that has to be a good thing no? But why does the euro still have it pretty far south at 240 hrs? Is it because like I said its bias to hold back?
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
FWIW, NWs just removed any chance of precip from day 3 Monday thru day 7.
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
The NWS gives us (primarily LI) between a 5 and 10% chance of receiving 1" of snow from late Sunday night into Monday morning. HWO and WWA soon to follow. Break out the plows and snowblowers!!!!
Frank please take the crawl down it's becoming depressing.
Frank please take the crawl down it's becoming depressing.
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
syosnow94 wrote:The NWS gives us (primarily LI) between a 5 and 10% chance of receiving 1" of snow from late Sunday night into Monday morning. HWO and WWA soon to follow. Break out the plows and snowblowers!!!!
Frank please take the crawl down it's becoming depressing.
I agree not sure why the thing about MLK coastal is still up.
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Euro is CLOSE to something....thats why
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
sroc4 wrote:Euro is CLOSE to something....thats why
We are a nose away from it Scott. Thw euro keeps correcting with each run. Like we have been saying all along these storms will kind of POP UP on us, like the snow yesterday morning. Rgem had it Wednesday 12 z run before that nada!!
Let get the rgem in better range hwre and we go from there.
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
What does the EURO say?
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Abba701 wrote:What does the EURO say?
Abb I am at work. I will try to post the maps to show what I mean later. Euro is kind of on its own, but each run is getting a little closer, and a little closer to turning this thing up. It still may not be a direct hit, but keep in mind this would be a high ration snow so even 0.2-0.3"QPF could be a welcome relief if it were to unfold.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm
Thanks Scroc that's encouraging no matter what Very little liquid can give a little fun at this juncture
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