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State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm

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Post by jake732 Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:07 pm

i just have a good feeling about this storm. i necer like the storms 10 days out they NEVER EVER happen
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:52 pm

Oh I see mugs that's the euro Para my bad.
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Post by oldtimer Wed Jan 13, 2016 6:09 pm

Nick fox5. Met. MLK Storm OTS. He said the latest data will stay offshore

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Post by Snowfall Wed Jan 13, 2016 6:42 pm

Funny how it's so cold but gonna rain 24 hours from now amazing

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 7:09 pm

Maybe not even according to 18z gfs
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 13, 2016 7:21 pm

Feel like two storms close together never work out well, now that this upcoming threat trended colder (not enough to our benefit...) I think heights drop and a trough forms in the east possibly too deep and may force this threat OTS and shear apart the energy. We shall see...
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 13, 2016 7:55 pm

@Snowfall wrote:Funny how it's so cold but gonna rain 24 hours from now amazing

24 hours from now is thursday night, the rain (if there is any) is supposed to be friday night into sat according to Frank and the models.
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Post by jake732 Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:44 pm

does anyone know if any models are showing a sunday night coastal anymore?
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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:32 pm

@jake732 wrote:does anyone know if any models are showing a sunday night coastal anymore?

It seems like the models I've seen are leaning toward taking it out to sea south of here. But others on here have access to more models than me so they may have better input.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:19 am

The goods news with this event is air temps will be cold cold from the Arctic Front that ratios will be high - in the 15:1 - 20:1 range. The GFS has the 500mb vort closed off over NY state while the EURO is a bit further south so it is able to tap into some Atlantic moisture. The further south this gets, the better our shot for accumulating snow. I want to see it where the red X is but because the flow is so fast and the western ridge is not that amplified I have a feeling this will be nothing more than just a coating to 2 inches across the area. Most people would take 1-2 inches anyway. This is a tricky forecast.

State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 Capture

GFS does not show much. EURO more impressive.

State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

EURO

State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

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Post by Snowfall Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:24 am

Is that with the mlk Storm or its separate

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:36 am

@Snowfall wrote:Is that with the mlk Storm or its separate

Same storm. Late Sunday into early Monday.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:00 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snowfall wrote:Is that with the mlk Storm or its separate

Same storm. Late Sunday into early Monday.

The to be coastal is ots, if you look far south on the run, I assume you expect it to stay that way?
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:43 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snowfall wrote:Is that with the mlk Storm or its separate

Same storm. Late Sunday into early Monday.

The to be coastal is ots, if you look far south on the run, I assume you expect it to stay that way?

Models are def trying to keep the STJ out of the equation.  Yesterdays beast on the 12z GFS is fading fast.  12z GFS yest seemed to consolidate all energy phasing the N with the south; tilting the trough neg, and brining it up the coast:
State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 <a href=State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 Gfs_z515" />
State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 Gfs_z518

Whereas the Euro yesterday kept everything seperate:
State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 <a href=State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 Ecmwf_33" />
State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 <a href=State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 Ecmwf_34" />

I suppose not entirely off the table, but a phase like 12GFS yest is unlikely to me given the trends so the main energy in the S branch looks to keep the surface LP OTS. GFS has gone to the keeping things seperate.
12 GFS today looks like this.  
State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 <a href=State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 Gfs_z516" />

I think we have to hope for one of two options.  An inverted trough, or as JB pointed out this morning a wave of LP redeveloping along the arctic front that intensifys.  Right now the 12z GFS and the 00zEuro shows this Low developing over Nantucket.  We need it to pop further south, somehwere where I marked X.  I think this might enhance QPF amts a little as it can tap atlantic moisture in a further S position.
State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 <a href=State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 Gfs_pr12" />

Like Frank mentioned the center of the PV needs to sink a little further S for this to happen.  The vorts rotating around the PV is what triggers that weaker wave in the furst place.  So one could visualize if the center of the PV were further S so would the vorticity associated with it.  
State of the Union: Winter Edition & MLK Day Possible Storm - Page 2 Gfs_z517


Also as Frank points out ratios could be quite high so even a mere 0.25" of QPF could mean 3-5" if the ratios were 15-20:1 verbatim.  I am pretty sure we all would sign for that at this point.  We shall see what 12z Euro looks like shortly

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:56 pm

And also like Frank points out the ridge out west plays a big role as well. For fear of getting burned again I decline to lean any direction ATT.

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 14, 2016 1:24 pm

@sroc4 wrote:And also like Frank points out the ridge out west plays a big role as well.  For fear of getting burned again I decline to lean any direction ATT.  

Great analysis sroc. I'll translate for all the rest of us. Screwed again!! This time not because of a storm cutting, but basically because the energy gets suppressed south. Winter of 2015/16. the only excitement now is to see how Friday the 22nd unravels as we get closer. Very Happy Razz

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:59 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:And also like Frank points out the ridge out west plays a big role as well.  For fear of getting burned again I decline to lean any direction ATT.  

Great analysis sroc.  I'll translate for all the rest of us.  Screwed again!!  This time not because of a storm cutting, but basically because the energy gets suppressed south.  Winter of 2015/16.  the only excitement now is to see how Friday the 22nd unravels as we get closer. Very Happy Razz

As I stated, and Frank it be great if you chime in sroc al mugs etc. but all models are showing a coastal this far out (22nd) that has to be a good thing no? But why does the euro still have it pretty far south at 240 hrs? Is it because like I said its bias to hold back?
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 14, 2016 10:01 pm

FWIW, NWs just removed any chance of precip from day 3 Monday thru day 7.

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:19 am

The NWS gives us (primarily LI) between a 5 and 10% chance of receiving 1" of snow from late Sunday night into Monday morning.  HWO and WWA soon to follow.  Break out the plows and snowblowers!!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked

Frank please take the crawl down it's becoming depressing.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:13 pm

syosnow94 wrote:The NWS gives us (primarily LI) between a 5 and 10% chance of receiving 1" of snow from late Sunday night into Monday morning.  HWO and WWA soon to follow.  Break out the plows and snowblowers!!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked

Frank please take the crawl down it's becoming depressing.

I agree not sure why the thing about MLK coastal is still up.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 15, 2016 2:16 pm

Euro is CLOSE to something....thats why

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 15, 2016 2:54 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Euro is CLOSE to something....thats why

We are a nose away from it Scott. Thw euro keeps correcting with each run. Like we have been saying all along these storms will kind of POP UP on us, like the snow yesterday morning. Rgem had it Wednesday 12 z run before that nada!!

Let get the rgem in better range hwre and we go from there.

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Post by Abba701 Fri Jan 15, 2016 2:59 pm

What does the EURO say?

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 15, 2016 3:17 pm

@Abba701 wrote:What does the EURO say?

Abb I am at work. I will try to post the maps to show what I mean later. Euro is kind of on its own, but each run is getting a little closer, and a little closer to turning this thing up. It still may not be a direct hit, but keep in mind this would be a high ration snow so even 0.2-0.3"QPF could be a welcome relief if it were to unfold.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by oldtimer Fri Jan 15, 2016 3:21 pm

Thanks Scroc that's encouraging no matter what Very little liquid can give a little fun at this juncture

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