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Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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Post by algae888 Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:43 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:Let this image speak for itself:

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 40 Novmar10

Two things about this map, one it's nice to see the variation in F instead of K on their map.

Number two this reinforces what I've said all along, 7 degrees above normal in the November through March period in our area, the warmest above normal stretch in our history. For those that still insist on grading this winter a B or above, who cares if your snowfall was average or slightly above all because of one blizzard some of us happened to luck out on. Barring that we would be calling this the worst winter ever. Could a strong La Nina be any worse? I hope not, it's hard to imagine any worse.
yes cp cannot be any worse imo. here are some stats from another board..
"Models currently going for the 3rd La Nina to develop since 1950 with such a

strong +PDO. The only two years with an official La Nina and a +PDO were

84-85 and 95-96. 83-84 and 05-06 were too weak to make official La Nina

status but had a few trimonthlies with weak La Nina conditions."
84-85 24.1" of snow
1984-85 was cold for one month only...1983-84 was a cold winter but had a warm February...05-06 was the warmest of the four...

la nina winters...DJF ONI...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...

1995-96..............-0.9.......32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1"

1983-84..............-0.5.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9" 5.1" 4.6"

1984-85..............-0.9.......36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1".........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1"

2005-06..............-0.7.......37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"..........26.9" 5.8"
all those winters featured more winter like weather.
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Post by algae888 Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:57 am

some more stats...
With the exception of the late December 1984 snow, that whole winter was focused into the January 4th to February 9th

period. January featured one of the strongest Arctic outbreaks of the 1980's when the AO

plunged to one of its lowest readings on record.

1985 1 19 -6.226
as long as we can get the cold air then we have a shot at least. this year we had 0% chance of snow the whole month of dec and 2nd half of feb and most of march. it is the key ingredient for snow. temp wise nothing can be worse than this year. as long as 95-96 keep popping up as an analog year then there is hope.
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Post by amugs Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:01 am

To each his own I say on this winter and the microcosim of IMBY for the seasons or in general areas is one that I do understand. On the flip side being a winter weenie a week of absoluetly bliss tracking a big snowstorm in terms of amounts for nyc was exhilarating to me. True 1996 is King Kong again IMBY and I feel generally for NNJ and ,NYC metro areas and still will be the bench mark to me for blizzards as will presidents day uno blizzard in 1978.
I graded this winter a C due to this storm and arctic cold snap that came in Feb. It was as Ace said a remake blessed set of extremes and for that I have taken a lot away.
If we get a severe Nina on the snap back to this Nino then we could be in drought mode and possibly warm.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:10 am

If this model can make this call.and we can some how hang onto the warmth in the NPAC then I think next wintwr can be wild. Look at how the IO is nice and cool compared to this year? That was a huge wildcard and look at the Nina wow but also notice the warm water in the NPAC and PDO regions = BOOOMM, If it were to come to fruition.
If the warmth dissipates say by Jan then we go to a front end winter IMO. A cold Nov and Dec with snow chances to a more temperate J-M time frame 8 months away I know but just putting it out there.
@Al, great stats there and I will take 84-85 any day but I will take 95-96 for a quadrillion please Alex!!

Cfsv2
Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 40 Glbsst10

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:56 am

@Quietace wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:Let this image speak for itself:

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 40 Novmar10

Two things about this map, one it's nice to see the variation in F instead of K on their map.

Number two this reinforces what I've said all along, 7 degrees above normal in the November through March period in our area, the warmest above normal stretch in our history. For those that still insist on grading this winter a B or above, who cares if your snowfall was average or slightly above all because of one blizzard some of us happened to luck out on. Barring that we would be calling this the worst winter ever. Could a strong La Nina be any worse? I hope not, it's hard to imagine any worse.
While I understand your opinion; seeming weighting a single variable above all others in my opinion is biased. Winter "grades" can vary through region. It is quite obvious the Hudson Valley had a anomalous winter. The lack of snowfall, temperature, and snow cover justify you giving it a "F" grade. Yet, while I was not home for the winter(Plymouth received under 30 inches of snowfall, while we usually see 70-100"); I dont see how you could grade the Mid Atlantic's winter as a F just due to temperature. If we are counting yearly snowfall, not just DFJ, many places were average to above average; even if a high percentage of that came from a single instance. Late season snowfall such as the past one, the mid season cold shot, and the severe weather we saw was all relative to the anomalous nature of the winter itself. The rapid extremes we saw may never be repeated. Thus instead of courteously 'flipping off' the winter, I think that everyone should look at it for its beauty, mostly because of the overall challenges faced forecasting, and the over all extremes we saw over a 4 month period. Now you may not agree, but winter is nnot just about temps, snowfall, and snow cover; its about the beauty of the atmosphere and the anomalies that we can see. Thus I feel it deserves recognition.

Ryan:

I never graded anyone's winter other than the HV as an F, what I clearly stated was I don't see how anyone within a 75 mile radius of NYC could grade this winter as a B or better, and I don't see how that statement is even debatable considering the ridiculous warmth.

Shouldn't you be studying, finals in 4 weeks. Very Happy Those are the only grades that matter.
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Post by Quietace Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:25 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:Let this image speak for itself:

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 40 Novmar10

Two things about this map, one it's nice to see the variation in F instead of K on their map.

Number two this reinforces what I've said all along, 7 degrees above normal in the November through March period in our area, the warmest above normal stretch in our history. For those that still insist on grading this winter a B or above, who cares if your snowfall was average or slightly above all because of one blizzard some of us happened to luck out on. Barring that we would be calling this the worst winter ever. Could a strong La Nina be any worse? I hope not, it's hard to imagine any worse.
While I understand your opinion; seeming weighting a single variable above all others in my opinion is biased. Winter "grades" can vary through region. It is quite obvious the Hudson Valley had a anomalous winter. The lack of snowfall, temperature, and snow cover justify you giving it a "F" grade. Yet, while I was not home for the winter(Plymouth received under 30 inches of snowfall, while we usually see 70-100"); I dont see how you could grade the Mid Atlantic's winter as a F just due to temperature. If we are counting yearly snowfall, not just DFJ, many places were average to above average; even if a high percentage of that came from a single instance. Late season snowfall such as the past one, the mid season cold shot, and the severe weather we saw was all relative to the anomalous nature of the winter itself. The rapid extremes we saw may never be repeated. Thus instead of courteously 'flipping off' the winter, I think that everyone should look at it for its beauty, mostly because of the overall challenges faced forecasting, and the over all extremes we saw over a 4 month period. Now you may not agree, but winter is nnot just about temps, snowfall, and snow cover; its about the beauty of the atmosphere and the anomalies that we can see. Thus I feel it deserves recognition.

Ryan:

I never graded anyone's winter other than the HV as an F, what I clearly stated was I don't see how anyone within a 75 mile radius of NYC could grade this winter as a B or better, and I don't see how that statement is even debatable considering the ridiculous warmth.

Shouldn't you be studying, finals in 4 weeks. Very Happy Those are the only grades that matter.
I like the way you think. I will go back to lurking in the depths of the forum lol!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:30 pm

Hey all, this weekend I hope is here to stay. Looking beautiful, on the other hand today is just awful. Chilly and rainy and its been rain most of the day so far, seems to have stopped now. I can't believe some of you are already making super LR predictions for next year, how is that even possible, let alone even hurricane season which isn't all that far away. Weatherbell does not have our area in the hottest spot this year, they are pin pointing gulf and I think said max 15 storms. Somewhat above normal but not crazy.
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Post by Dtone Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:53 pm

Awful indeed.. Sun is coming out now, the beginning of several days of mild sunny days. I look forward to pleasant spring weather with some consistency.

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Post by Quietace Wed Apr 13, 2016 5:21 pm

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 40 2da4a91efae433d5d6fd2492a8f906edf18f9214f0d3981398413c12a16a2399

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Post by Snow88 Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:25 am

Winter Storm Warning for Denver

8-16 inches expected

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.73914743400047&lon=-104.98469944299967#.VxDqqjGgvlY
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Post by Quietace Sat Apr 16, 2016 3:36 pm

Since we are in the transition between winter and sweltering summer heat and thunderstorm tracking... it is now meme season for a little while...
Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 40 Rsjc36V
Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 40 Dc9

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Post by RJB8525 Sat Apr 16, 2016 8:49 pm

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 40 MnyXYRe
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Post by docstox12 Sun Apr 17, 2016 6:34 am

Good one,RJB!!!!!!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Apr 17, 2016 11:58 am

What's with the earthquakes lately? Reading up on the one that hit Ecuador, devastating

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Post by frank 638 Sun Apr 17, 2016 12:30 pm

Very scary Japan hada quick on Friday that measures 7.0 then yesterday 7.2

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Post by Quietace Sun Apr 17, 2016 2:47 pm


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