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01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

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01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible Empty 01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:35 pm

A series of updates will be released over the next few days. You can expect them between 8-9pm every night. Give the blog a read and if you have any questions please ask. Keep in mind I will not answer questions on timing and snow amounts. You will notice in the blog I do not even post snow maps from models. These type of specifics will not be known until Wednesday morning (if there is even still a storm to track by then).

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2016/01/watching-january-22nd-23rd-potential.html


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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:45 pm

For this situation and flow, we want the 500mb and surface low to close off right off the Jersey Coast (well inside the BM) and bomb out and stall, similar to what the CMC/EURO showed and what happened in '96.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-500MillibarMaps.html

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-SeaLevelPressure.html
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:47 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:For this situation and flow, we want the 500mb and surface low to close off right off the Jersey Coast (well inside the BM) and bomb out and stall, similar to what the CMC/EURO showed and what happened in '96.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-500MillibarMaps.html

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-SeaLevelPressure.html

That western ridge in 96' looked much better than what we're dealing with. This is a fluid setup.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:47 pm

Suppression is the biggest threat here from what I see on the ensembles, with that banana high no chance of cutting up the lakes or apps.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:49 pm

Doesn't look too bad here, too many energies in the Pac though that low coming into the NW may moderate the ridge.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=QQ500&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=QQ500&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132
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Post by snow247 Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:54 pm

Nice and exciting update Frank - Best one so far.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:38 pm

All the models have a storm and even the GFS shows a moderate to significant event even though it is the most south and east. The Euro, Euro para, cmc, and their ensembles show a beast. We are only 5 days away and I'm trusting the Euro on this one. It has proven time and time again to be the superior model, locking on to complex dynamics faster than the GFS and then the GFS plays catch up and comes around 48 hours before the event. I know all solutions are still on the table but I'm willing to bet this is going to be a HECS.
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Post by oldtimer Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:51 pm

Thanks Frank. Really appericate your work. The explanation was so thorough and for me was easier to understand. Excited about the upcoming week

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:36 pm

00z gfs will initialize soon.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:48 pm

biggest difference so far is lead vort is weaker

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:57 pm

Frank excellent analysis and thanks for taking the time to do this.

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Post by jake732 Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:59 pm

So is this bad news? Basically same?
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:01 pm

@jake732 wrote:So is this bad news? Basically same?

It is fine it is looking very good like teh 12 z run so far.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:03 pm

Dug in deep in the South - 500mb looks great - need a full phase at the base - could be.......

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:06 pm

at 111, 114 she looks great - another beast of a run on 0z here tonight HUGE SLUG of moisture from STJ

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:06 pm

going to be another hit

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:08 pm

GET READY BOYS AND GIRLS CAUSE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A ...........


01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f120

RIODZILLAAAAAA???????

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:08 pm

this is going to be massive

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:going to be another hit
Is the low closed Frank? That would be key for a closer to the coast scenario.
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:09 pm

FRANK she looks marvelous 700, 500mb holy smokes

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f123

INCOMING TAKE COVERRRRRR

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:09 pm

NUTS CLOSED OVER TN - WOOO HOOO

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f126

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:10 pm

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f129

WHAT DO YUO THINK NOW?????

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:10 pm

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible Capture.thumb.PNG.c37d1e5f48f321495fc3f73e3237b93a

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:10 pm

DA CRUSHERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f132

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:11 pm

i have no words

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f132

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