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01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:57 pm

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 25 Gss1.JPG.d47302d91f3ea337b85b6f1d2fafc6a4

woop woop

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jake732 Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:57 pm

Track, enough crying
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:58 pm

@track17 wrote:We have had much in about 5 years and honestly we all know the storm is unimpressive as can be for ocean county without much snow.
I am in no way saying that you will not be correct, but This is banter, take it there. Thanks

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Post by LB3147 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:00 pm

wud love to see some fearless predictions at this point before I tell my 90 year old grandmother come to stay with us......at this point the model consistency is a big concern, no outliers.....my prediction is all rain to the Driscoll Bridge...3-5 then washed away by rain as we see easterlies.....non event snow wise fellas.....im more worried about flooding and wind issues at this point for shore area residents....which id like to see more of you guy worry about then (stuff that affects real people in real ways) then how much snow ur gonna get

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:00 pm

@track17 wrote:We have had much in about 5 years and honestly we all know the storm is unimpressive as can be for ocean county without much snow.

Okay enough already stop this I hear your biaging - anymore posts about frickin ocean county and wah wah the snow amounts and they get deleted - we are not clogging up disco nor models analysis cause oc isn't getting their due. we have an epic unprecedented storm that will affect tens of millions - the Megalopolis for christ sake. Done.

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:00 pm

Woohoo thats a pretty map mugs
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:00 pm

@amugs wrote:01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 25 Gss1.JPG.d47302d91f3ea337b85b6f1d2fafc6a4

woop woop

I saw this too haha Only problem is the scale is maxed out ALL THE TIME hahaha still pretty as heck to look at though lmfao

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Post by mako460 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:02 pm

thanks for the sanity Mugs!

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:02 pm

@LB3147 wrote:wud love to see some fearless predictions at this point before I tell my 90 year old grandmother come to stay with us......at this point the model consistency is a big concern, no outliers.....my prediction is all rain to the Driscoll Bridge...3-5 then washed away by rain as we see easterlies.....non event snow wise fellas.....im  more worried about flooding and wind issues at this point for shore area residents....which id like to see more of you guy worry about then  (stuff that affects real people in real ways) then how much snow ur gonna get
Full details including this will be discussed in Franks blog tonight. This will obviously be a dangerous situation with high tide, full moon, and screaming easterlies for 2 full tide cycles.

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Post by Joe Snow Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:03 pm

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 25 Ralph-10


Me looking at the model runs............. This so far looks good.
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:03 pm

@LB3147 wrote:wud love to see some fearless predictions at this point before I tell my 90 year old grandmother come to stay with us......at this point the model consistency is a big concern, no outliers.....my prediction is all rain to the Driscoll Bridge...3-5 then washed away by rain as we see easterlies.....non event snow wise fellas.....im  more worried about flooding and wind issues at this point for shore area residents....which id like to see more of you guy worry about then  (stuff that affects real people in real ways) then how much snow ur gonna get

LB where does she live near the shore?? I would let her know just to start to get a list of things she would need if this were to occur - meds, clothes, books, things like that.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by track17 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:03 pm

This is not historic at all but ok will stop posting all together like you want

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Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:04 pm

@amugs wrote:01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 25 Gss1.JPG.d47302d91f3ea337b85b6f1d2fafc6a4

woop woop

And this is only thru 18z on Saturday.
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:04 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 25 Ralph-10


Me looking at the model runs............. This so far looks good.

Joe welcome back and so true - what about hum ida, hum ida clip??

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:05 pm

@track17 wrote:This is not historic at all but ok will stop posting all together like you want

Not all together but keep the banter posts that you have posted in banter that is all.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:05 pm

@LB3147 wrote:this wreaks of total whiff....feels a lot like last year's hysterics.....if its raining in Ocean county (jake732) that means its mainly a mixing event in Monmouth county, snow but more mixing in Middlesex....etc.....Id like to think we have all been around the block enough times by now....but unless we are day out....im not a believer.....my instincts say we miss this whole thing

This is a possibility LB. All areas along the coast could be hindered by a warm boundary layer, but there is no way in hell you or anyone esle can call it right now. There is just too much time to know. If the center of the LP stalls S of LI tucked inside of the BM this is a def possibility. Traditionally for these types of systems a track right at or even just outside the BM works out best for the coastal plain. Again all possibilities are on the table. But please keep in mind a jog of as little of 10-15miles...yes only 10-15miles could be the difference between 2 ft and 6inches or 12" and 2-3". For Nemo back in Feb 2013 I got 29" of snow on the north shore of LI; whereas, literally 5miles to my south had 12-18" and 10-15 miles to my south received 2-6". I can almost guarantee no one in our coverage area will be shut out of the white stuff completely if this system resembles even a fraction of what is modeled. For all coastal sections we are in the QPF jackpot, meaning we will be the jackpot or the screw zone. It comes with the territory. So for the love of God lets all just marvel at the models until Wed/Thurs time frame when we can get some of the S/R hi res models into the game for the true IMBY details. Patience all patience.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:15 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:This one's for all of you:


MY WIFE JUST RAN INTO THE OTHER ROOM AND TOLD ME IF I DON'T CAM DOWN SHE'S LEAVING!!! I WATCHED THIS VIDEO MATH AND I LOST IT. THIS KID IS THE MOST FIRED UP INDIVIDUAL I HAVE EVER SEEN. I CANNOT BELIEVE WHAT I'M WATCHING. BEST VIDEO CLIP IN THE HISTORY OF THIS BOARD HANDS DOWN!!!!!!!!!! white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag

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Post by snow247 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:18 pm

Upton


STRONG JET DYNAMICS NOTED WITH A COUPLING UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AND EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF PLUS 4 TO 5 SD ALL POINTING
TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. IT IS THIS LOW THAT POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES MEMBERS...BUT
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EVEN SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS OF THE LOW TRACK
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

ITS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES
OR MORE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXIST FOR HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. THERE IS A FULL MOON
COMING UP ON JAN. 23.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:18 pm

LB I moved your banter post into banter thread.  Just chill dude.  If you don't want you banter posts to be deleted just keep it in banter.  Thanks

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:19 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@amugs wrote:01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 25 Gss1.JPG.d47302d91f3ea337b85b6f1d2fafc6a4

woop woop

And this is only thru 18z on Saturday.

Thank God because I "need" more than the 10-12" that gives me IMBY!! Wink

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Post by LB3147 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:21 pm

ty mugs....she is manasquan....i grew up down there but in manhattan now....I just like to give family members a heads up so ty.....prbbly shud be moved to the banter going forward but ty guys

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:22 pm

@LB3147 wrote:ty mugs....she is manasquan....i grew up down there but in manhattan now....I just like to give family members a heads up so ty.....prbbly shud be moved to the banter going forward but ty guys
Where is she is Manasquan? Anywhere east of 71 should be on the lookout

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Post by LB3147 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:22 pm

will do sroc ty and wont happen going forward

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Post by LB3147 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:23 pm

east virginia ace....known flood zone

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:25 pm

@LB3147 wrote:east virginia ace....known flood zone
Yup, know the area well. As mugs said, have a plan in place, tides could be a few feet above normal if low tucks in like GFS shows.

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