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01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:31 pm

Let me be clear: I am not yet forecasting a Godzilla snowstorm for the area. Once the banner on my forum changes to "Storm Mode" that is when you know I have full confidence this storm will come to fruition. The reason why I am playing "safe" is because I do not trust the Pacific. If the PAC energy is modeled too strong, or the western ridge is modeled too amplified, that could mean the difference between storm or no storm.

To this point, there is an underrepresented consistency with Global Models showing a high-impact storm effecting our area. For the last 3 days, the GFS, EURO and CMC models have shown a Nor'easter bringing heavy snow, high winds, and coastal flooding. In yesterday's blog I explained why these models are showing a storm of such magnitude. The atmosphere is almost perfectly aligned to favor a track up the east coast. There is still time for dramatic change, including a track out to sea, but with each passing model run showing a Godzilla-type snowstorm that possibility is quickly diminishing.

What I am paying attention to is exactly where the 500mb low tracks and occludes (stalls). This will determine which areas receive the highest snowfall amounts. An H5 low that occludes south - like EURO shows - would keep the greatest impacts confined to VA/DC. There will be enough dynamics involved to push heavy snow bands into our area but the 24"+ snowfall amounts would stay to our south and we would be in the 10-20" range. If the H5 low occludes further north - like GFS shows - then we'll be able to tap into the prolific snowfall amounts because the 700mb low would bring insane frontogenesis (lift) to the area that would result in 2-3" per hour snowfall rates.

Temperatures are a concern for the immediate coast if you're looking for an all-snow event if the H5 low occludes too far west or southwest. This would ensure the surface low will be located to our S&W and that will allow the east wind to take over and push mild air into the shore points. Once the surface low tracks east-northeast, winds will turn from the east to the north-northwest and rain will change to snow. Again, this track is not set in stone but current guidance does support a brief rain / mix period before switching over to snow.

My gut is telling me models over the next 2 days will trend a little further east with the H5 low. The reason I feel that way is because I think the phase occurs a little later than where models have it now. The pattern is still progressive despite the 50/50 block we'll have during this storm. Either the ridge de-amplifies sooner or the phase happens later. That is just a hunch I have based off how these high-end winter storms have performed over the last 3 years without a true -NAO block. A first call snowfall map will be issued Wednesday evening if it's still warranted.

We will see how the trends go over the next 2 days. There is still plenty of time for change.

Here is a look at some wind maps. These are sustained winds, NOT gusts. Add an additional 10-15mph to know what gusts could be like.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off 12z_cmc_wind

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off 12z_euro_wind

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off 18z_gfs_wind_speed


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:38 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:35 pm

In case you missed it this was my blog from yesterday explaining the pattern and why models show a beastly storm. Not much has changed from yesterday and today. They all still show a huge storm.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2016/01/watching-january-22nd-23rd-potential.html


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Post by deadrabbit79 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:44 pm

Amazing analysis! Great job by Frank and everyone. Let's keep it fun! Hoping for the best or the worst? Not sure which applies in these cases lol

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:46 pm

Pretty much agree here, east trend is still the biggest worry over the next few days. Think itll probably happen though, to what extent... hopefully not severely.
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Post by jake732 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:48 pm

Frank, a jog east means what for us ?
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Post by Taffy Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:50 pm

Great write up and one that I, the meteorological challenged understood! Thanks Frank.
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Post by Joe Snow Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:50 pm

Good write up Frank.....
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:50 pm

Great analysis Frank and thanks for sharing hope the east trend is slight like 50 miles slight and we all still cash in and the low occludes where we need it for all members here NORTH!!

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Post by RJB8525 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:50 pm

Awesome blog! Let's all hope scenario 3 plays out but as we all know nothing is written in stone
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Post by frank 638 Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:51 pm

Well said frank I agree with you hundred percent it's still early it can change the models could go either west or eastwe will have the storm we will find out soon what we will getand thanks Frank for excellent job you do

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:51 pm

Thank you Frank!! you made it easy to understand...I am a right now concerned with the wind we will possibly be getting...flooding also issue in the town next to us(Union Beach)..we have flood gates(which saved us during Sandy)...the euro seems the calmest for our area gfs is a bit unnerving...and need to be prepared for possible outages...I guess these can change as well over the next few days...(also having been sick and in need of groceries..I better drag my butt to the store tom..before the crazies come out...I need more than just milk..and bread..lol)..
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:52 pm

@jake732 wrote:Frank, a jog east means what for us ?

Hard to say because not many models show it right now, but probably dealing with less mixing issues. It may also take away the Roidzilla (24"+) snowfall amounts and be more in line with 12-18 type of storm. We'll find out if it happens...

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:01 pm

JMA

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off P1_GZ_D5_PN_108_0000

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off P1_GZ_D5_PN_120_0000

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off P1_GZ_D5_PN_132_0000

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off P1_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000

From another forum - WOW steady as she goes cappy!

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Post by Joe Snow Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:05 pm

JMA all the way!!!!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:09 pm

Lee Goldberg doing a live Facebook chat
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:13 pm

@amugs wrote:JMA

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off P1_GZ_D5_PN_108_0000

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off P1_GZ_D5_PN_120_0000

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off P1_GZ_D5_PN_132_0000

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off P1_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000

From another forum - WOW steady as she goes cappy!

(Tears falling profusely from eyes) THAT'S THE MOST BEAUTIFUL POST EVER!!!! ahahaha

BTW, Nice write-up Frank. I agree with having to watch for the east trend, but based on the data we have so far it looks like if it's going to trend anywhere, to me, it looks like it will keep ticking west. We shall see though buddy!!

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Post by Radz Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:13 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Lee Goldberg doing a live Facebook chat


Saw that too!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:14 pm

He is saying pretty much what you said Frank...if he sees consistency in tom models he will put out snow percentages not snow totals..too early even to go out for milk and bread..lol


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:18 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:15 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jake732 wrote:Frank, a jog east means what for us ?

Hard to say because not many models show it right now, but probably dealing with less mixing issues. It may also take away the Roidzilla (24"+) snowfall amounts and be more in line with 12-18 type of storm. We'll find out if it happens...
Unless something ultra dramatic happens I feel extremely confident we see warning criteria snows of at least 6+ inches. My confidence level for a HECS right now stands at 50%. Like you said Frank I just don't trust that pac ridge holding up, however every time I watch a model run play out thinking "here comes the SE shift", instead the run comes out even more prolific than the last one. Let's see what happens tonight.
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:17 pm

Great job Frank. Here's to 20+ area wide. AND SOMEONE WHO LIVES CLOSE TO WEATHERWATCHMOM PLEASE PM HER AND GET A LIST AND PICK UP HER GROCERIES FOR CHRIST SAKE!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Great job Frank.  Here's to 20+ area wide.  AND SOMEONE WHO LIVES CLOSE TO WEATHERWATCHMOM PLEASE PM HER AND GET A LIST AND PICK UP HER GROCERIES FOR CHRIST SAKE!!
You make me laugh..my husband and son can survive another day..but my darn dog has been whining all day for his favorite treats..
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:34 pm

FWIW western ridging looks more amped on the 00z NAM so far through 54 than 12z.....vort is a little weaker though.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:38 pm

Ridging is definitely better through 66, and H5 still hasn't closed off. Could be an interesting run, even though this isn't a model ahaha

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Post by LB3147 Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:44 pm

Frank as always great write up.....however whoever is in charge of the scrolling message reading...you may want to clarify the below statement and set the correct message across the garden state?

"A Godzilla is threatening to impact the area Friday-Saturday, models showing unprecedented consistency"


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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:44 pm

Hour 78 trough is already negatively tilting and closed off over mid-Mississippi Valley. Great signs. Ridge is frick-frackin' B-E-A-Utiful in this run.

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