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01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:01 pm

The only silver lining is we have a full day tomorrow and Thursday to see these trends reverse. I honestly am not expecting models tonight so suddenly come north. If they do I'll be very surprised.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:04 pm

@pdubz wrote:is it really this hard to get 1.... ONE 20 inch storm?

Actually, it is. That's what makes them special. 

@Math23x7 wrote:One thing I have noticed on this thread is how the EURO failed with past snowstorms.  What I have come to realize, however, is that two of the storms the EURO busted on, especially for NYC and NJ, were "Juno" and "Nemo" both of which were "Miller B" secondary redevelopment snowstorms.  If I'm not mistaken, this would more closely resemble a "Miller A" type snowstorm. So I don't think that the EURO's performance here should be compared to that from the two aforementioned storms.  But that's just what I think.

This is actually closer to Miller B than A. A phase is already happening well to our west and we're tracking a bowling ball H5 low. Technically this is Miller C. But it's nowhere near A. My opinion at least.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:08 pm

Maybe we're focusing on the wrong storm... Ready to lose it
(I know this belongs in banter but couldn't resist...)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=213&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_213_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The 18z GFS Ensembles are south of 12z.

Yes but by like 25 miles not 200

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 27 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 27 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96


Last edited by amugs on Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:13 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:12 pm

When the storm is fully on land by 12z tomorrow we see what is what imho. We have time and also till 0z tomorrow night too. I suspect we see the south and east trend on the tonight's runs, as Frank said if we see a reversal then for the better. I am done till tomorrow 6 z gfs.

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Post by hyde345 Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:14 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Maybe we're focusing on the wrong storm... Ready to lose it
(I know this belongs in banter but couldn't resist...)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=213&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_213_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Why would you do that to yourself?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:16 pm

Somebody posted it on another forum im watching, they did it to me.... Something to wish for if this goes down the tubes, not even gonna look at it run to run though...
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:17 pm

Please keep this thread specific to end of week discussion.

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Post by Biggin23 Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:19 pm

If it snows that much in southern Md, schools will be closed for a week. I just moved to NJ last summer from there. Would be epic down there for sure!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:21 pm

Frank what are the chances this u'll lessens up to get us back to where we want to be? You said it changes run to run. What's ur honest guess at this time.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:25 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank what are the chances this u'll lessens up to get us back to where we want to be? You said it changes run to run. What's ur honest guess at this time.

I think the EURO is too far south. Whether or not that means anything remains to be seen because the ULL is tough to forecast.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:30 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Frank what are the chances this u'll lessens up to get us back to where we want to be? You said it changes run to run. What's ur honest guess at this time.

I think the EURO is too far south. Whether or not that means anything remains to be seen because the ULL is tough to forecast.
that's a fair honest and hopeful answer thx
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:36 pm

18z GEFS, worrying

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=276698
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Post by frank 638 Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:37 pm

just got home from work i cant believe the models are going back and fourth with this storm i was looking forward for a blizzard .what time does the euro come out i hope this baby does not stay south

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Post by hyde345 Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:41 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:18z GEFS, worrying

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=276698

Not good. HV gets skunked on almost every one.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:47 pm

Any further south on gets and nyc out picture too.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:48 pm

Looks like strong consensus on a VA storm... we're the variable.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:49 pm

Ha accuwx has me 6 to 10 inches with 40mph sustained 77mph gusts! I know they often wrong but wow do I rarely see it that high. I'll take all that in a second
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:56 pm

I strongly agree with jb this area will end up in between the solutions. I think the winds and flooding won't change a lot.
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Post by jimv45 Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:01 pm

hyde this is the norm and this thing I think will go south more just unbelievable!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:07 pm

Let's not give up.peeps we have two solid days that ull could go either way. Storm still much on the table especially coastal and just inland areas. I do worry for the far northerners as I think a solution in between will.b the outcome of position and snow totals to b Godzilla amounts for at least a strip of area. Not giving up until the last minute I've decided.
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:08 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Let's not give up.peeps we have two solid days that ull could go either way. Storm still much on the table especially coastal and just inland areas. I do worry for the far northerners as I think a solution in between will.b the outcome of position and snow totals to b Godzilla amounts for at least a strip of area. Not giving up until the last minute I've decided.

oh not even close never surrender!
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Post by frank 638 Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:12 pm

I'm not giving up either just like Yogi Berra says it ain't over till it's over

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:12 pm

Well this is disconcerting news after stepping off my flight home from the DR.

I will say: I said an ALOUD prayer while taking a leak in the bathroom flying over the southern jet (I was watching the navigation on the tv and made an educated guess) that we see this baby trend NORTH starting at 00z.

Hope it helps. ;-)
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Post by jimv45 Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:15 pm

We should blame Canada for the push south never drinking Molson again!!!

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