NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

+54
static2987
Sparky Sparticles
H.G. Rising
lglickman1
deadrabbit79
Taffy
gigs68
Scullybutcher
crippo84
aiannone
Radz
hyde345
essexcountypete
Quietace
sroc4
billg315
SNOW MAN
Snowfall
Snow88
Sunflowers138
oldtimer
mako460
Dtone
Abba701
jake732
HEATMISER
WeatherBob
algae888
Artechmetals
Dis2cruise
Ferndue21
jimv45
CPcantmeasuresnow
Vinnydula
Joe Snow
justin92
chief7
weatherwatchermom
SoulSingMG
Math23x7
nutleyblizzard
pdubz
frank 638
skinsfan1177
jmanley32
NjWeatherGuy
devsman
Biggin23
amugs
RJB8525
snow247
WeatherJeff1224
rb924119
Frank_Wx
58 posters

Page 1 of 35 1, 2, 3 ... 18 ... 35  Next

Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:20 pm

Just how I started Update #2 I will start Update #3. I am NOT yet forecasting a Godzilla for our area. We need to see considerable changes over the next 48 hours if we are to see a storm of that magnitude. 48 hours is plenty of time for change to happen.

What has changed?

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? 12z_euro_update_3

The EURO was the first model to show the south trend. Here are the 12z EURO 500mb height anomalies and you'll notice I outlined two tracks. Green and purple. If you recall from the very first update, I outlined three scenarios this storm can take. Now, I am down to two. I think this storm will take one of these two tracks. The green would bring Godzilla (12"+) snowfall amounts to the area, possibly even Roidzilla (24"+), while the purple would be more of a 4-8" type of event. Yes, this means I feel we will at least see a 4" snowfall since I am no longer forecasting an out to sea scenario. Less amounts likely as you head to western NJ, eastern PA, and HV. But that's not important right now.

Eye popping off this map is the western ridge. Look how amplified and expansive it is into western Canada. Remember when we were worried about the western ridge? This is a case of "be careful what you ask for." Now the ridge is SO amplified that it overpowers the flow as it progresses east. It collapses on top of the mean H5 vort and acts as "downstream" blocking.

We also have "upstream" blocking. Notice the negative heights I circled in red over southeast Canada. There is an ULL (Upper Level Low) that is preventing heights from rising up along the east coast. This mean the H5 vort stays on a west-east track once it closes off instead of tracking north into our latitude. If the ULL can MOVE out faster, preferably BEFORE H5 closes off, that would ensure height rises along the east coast and a storm track further north.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Vort_1

Here is another look at the ULL this time circled in blue. However, I also wanted to point out the lead energy in front of this storm which is the smaller circle over the Northeast. Notice how it also has trended to be stronger and actually shows a weak trough over the Northeast. This is another "new" trend on the models. Before, this energy was weak and shearing out or heading out to sea faster. Between this s/w and the large ULL, heights along the east coast remain zonal or flat. These two features act as "confluence."

I also drew an arrow to show how the ridge could overpower the storm. Notice how it's collapsing on top of the mean vort. The northern energy is forced to dig very quickly which is one reason why H5 closes off so early on the EURO. The earlier H5 closes off, the worse it is for us. Typically our biggest storms are when H5 closes off right before the storm impacts our area.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Jet_streaks_euro

Lastly, here are H250 jet streaks from the EURO. A couple of days ago the northern jet streak was located over New England. Now it is running through the Northeast. One reason for this is because of the flat heights and where H5 closes off. If the jet streak was further north, it could "pull" the storm north along with it. Also notice the southern jet streak. Storms tend to track in between these two jet streaks. If the mean trough goes neutral faster, this would orient the jet streaks more north than east and could possibly favor a track further north.

So, will there be a north trend? That is the billion dollar question and one I am not comfortable answering. In past experience I've felt like models would correct themselves back to their original thought once we're inside 48 hours. We still have 2 full days of model runs to go not including tonight's 00z. We'll see what happens. This is better than the alternative which would be tracking a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event trying to see if we can salvage February. That is boring! THIS IS FUN PEOPLE! KEEP ALL NEGATIVE POSTS IN BANTER! LET'S DO IT!!!

Best,

Frank


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:24 pm

I LIKE IT!!!!! lol May the models run fast and the drinks go down smooth!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by WeatherJeff1224 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:24 pm

Great write up Frank thank you!

WeatherJeff1224

Posts : 6
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-01

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by snow247 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:26 pm

Here's to hoping a north trend happens and we all get feet of snow Very Happy

00z NAM rolling. Out to hour 42. Closed off at the TX/OK border.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:27 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I LIKE IT!!!!! lol May the models run fast and the drinks go down smooth!!

This is never a problem.

Anyway, love the look of the 00z SREFS. Great start to the evening.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? 12487278_1056544161064009_832072770705235839_o

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:28 pm

I honestly don't know if I've ever seen three threads created in three days for one event. Ever. And I've been a member for long time, since the 7online days ahahaha it's great!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by RJB8525 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:28 pm

You're the best dude
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by amugs Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:29 pm

Great analysis again and wow I never knew such a strong west coast ridge could do this. Learn sum tin new everyday and with every storm. Hope that s/w gets the heck out if here so we can build the heights on the coast and the confluence to our north weakens and the vort stays n and moves n and closes off over VA capes!!

POSITIVE JUJU!#

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Biggin23 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:30 pm

I have a lucky homebrew going down for the north trend.....here we go!!

Biggin23

Posts : 259
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2015-02-11
Location : Jackson, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:30 pm

Actually confluence does look a bit weaker so far through 48. At least to me, but it is the NAM lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by devsman Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:32 pm

Like I said before Frank, you called it in banter thread with "7 days before a storm". We are a d-minus 3.5 days and we lost the EURO. And then at d-minus 2 days, the trend starts north. 50 miles every run which would put the ULL at around maryland come friday night. And then, let the Nutella flow.
devsman
devsman
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 424
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 45
Location : merrick, ny (south shore of Long Island)

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:32 pm

Trough opened back up at 54 and is slightly negatively tilted versus neutral at 12z

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:34 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I honestly don't know if I've ever seen three threads created in three days for one event. Ever. And I've been a member for long time, since the 7online days ahahaha it's great!

For the big cats I usually do this. You can expect a 4th update tomorrow.

Very Happy Smile Wink

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by snow247 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:35 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I honestly don't know if I've ever seen three threads created in three days for one event. Ever. And I've been a member for long time, since the 7online days ahahaha it's great!

For the big cats I usually do this. You can expect a 4th update tomorrow.

Very Happy Smile Wink

Are we still doing a chat tomorrow? That is, if the storm is looking good for us by then?
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:36 pm

@snow247 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I honestly don't know if I've ever seen three threads created in three days for one event. Ever. And I've been a member for long time, since the 7online days ahahaha it's great!

For the big cats I usually do this. You can expect a 4th update tomorrow.

Very Happy Smile Wink

Are we still doing a chat tomorrow? That is, if the storm is looking good for us by then?

I will not commit at the moment. You will see a scroll and thread go up if I do decide to do one.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:36 pm

00z may be a little slower than 12z which would be ok; let the northern energy over the Northeast escape a little more. We shall see

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by snow247 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:37 pm

NAM looking at bit better so far, out to 63.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:37 pm

66 I see HP confluence into the eastern US trying to force a further south transfer of the low.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:38 pm

On hour 69 of the NAM, the ridge is situated a bit further west. Trough is neutral.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:38 pm

66 - Confluent energy definitely moving out slower than 12z, but secondary shortwave coming into the Pacific Northwest is weaker


Last edited by rb924119 on Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:39 pm; edited 1 time in total

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:39 pm

72 low popping up around GA/SC noooo.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:40 pm

Hour 75 the trough is not as dug into the southeast.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:40 pm

75 secondary takes over off SC....
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:40 pm

This is gonna swing wide right
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:41 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is gonna swing wide right

I think so too....

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 35 1, 2, 3 ... 18 ... 35  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum