NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

+54
static2987
Sparky Sparticles
H.G. Rising
lglickman1
deadrabbit79
Taffy
gigs68
Scullybutcher
crippo84
aiannone
Radz
hyde345
essexcountypete
Quietace
sroc4
billg315
SNOW MAN
Snowfall
Snow88
Sunflowers138
oldtimer
mako460
Dtone
Abba701
jake732
HEATMISER
WeatherBob
algae888
Artechmetals
Dis2cruise
Ferndue21
jimv45
CPcantmeasuresnow
Vinnydula
Joe Snow
justin92
chief7
weatherwatchermom
SoulSingMG
Math23x7
nutleyblizzard
pdubz
frank 638
skinsfan1177
jmanley32
NjWeatherGuy
devsman
Biggin23
amugs
RJB8525
snow247
WeatherJeff1224
rb924119
Frank_Wx
58 posters

Page 2 of 35 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 18 ... 35  Next

Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:41 pm

990s off NC at 78
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:42 pm

The NAM stalled the H5 low then may have drifted it south. DUMB MODEL IS GOOD FOR NOTHING.

BUT! The trough is more negative and heights are higher along the EC. So, it is a better run than 18z.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:42 pm

U all mean ots? It's the Nam at 84 hrs we are desperate lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:42 pm

Holy crap I need to buy more of this espresso. I feel great.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:43 pm

Now its off Hatteras at 81, this track is.... off
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:43 pm

Forget this not a model crap.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:43 pm

WOW THE NAM WOULD BE A HUGE HIT. TROUGH WENT NEGATIVE AND LOW CRAWLING UP THE COAST

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty excellent post frank let's hope the north trend continues and thank you Frank for all your work you do you're the best

Post by frank 638 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I LIKE IT!!!!! lol May the models run fast and the drinks go down smooth!!

This is never a problem.

Anyway, love the look of the 00z SREFS. Great start to the evening.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 12487278_1056544161064009_832072770705235839_o

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2334
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:44 pm

Alright now its up in the Chesapeake alright that one threw me a curveball...
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by snow247 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:44 pm

Wow, got real worried there for a minute
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by snow247 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:45 pm

Still off to a good start for tonight's runs.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:45 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM stalled the H5 low then may have drifted it south. DUMB MODEL IS GOOD FOR NOTHING.

BUT! The trough is more negative and heights are higher along the EC. So, it is a better run than 18z.

Check the differences in the ridge; definitely more collapsed on 18z versus 00z. That's a positive. Should allow for a little more room to the north. Silver lining if there is one? lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:46 pm

I wish we could see the rest. NAM would have been a Godzilla. GREEN TRACK FROM MY UPDATE

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:46 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Holy crap I need to buy more of this espresso. I feel great.

Ever try Cafe Bustello? It's like straight caffeine ahahaha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by snow247 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:47 pm

NAM looks like it would crush us.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:48 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I wish we could see the rest. NAM would have been a Godzilla. GREEN TRACK FROM MY UPDATE

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

If you extrapolate it out, the surface low would end up on top of DC/Baltimore in the next frame I think. Interesting to say the least.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:49 pm

That track makes no sense LR NAM pretty much toss, I do find thr inital trend of an earlier transfer in the NAMs better range a little concerning if that makes any sense.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:51 pm

Sroc if you're reading, watch the progression of the coastal surface low from 72-84 in relation to the 500 hPa heights/vorticity advection. Textbook example.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by snow247 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:51 pm

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Image.png.35c6a7c798012d6bb485a588a0d3569b

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Image.png.480fc1637e34aaec3c266b90977778c1

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Image.png.eeceeb97e7d03005bb7bd6ca93f68f18
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by snow247 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:52 pm

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_28.png.9aed032856bcf4f2b6e2e40451157965
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by snow247 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:52 pm

SREF: Check.

NAM: Check.

GFS next in line!
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:53 pm

Praise Mary Jesus Joseph

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Image.thumb.png.2901356889b9dc5893c1bb9764f4dc28

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:55 pm

Wow oh wow that has roid all over it look how intense that is. But it's too far out on Nam but still fun to hope for.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:56 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Praise Mary Jesus Joseph

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Image.thumb.png.2901356889b9dc5893c1bb9764f4dc28
frank that looks like it would b a ROIDZILLA with all that yellow red coming in.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:57 pm

Does it look cold for everyone
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 2 Empty Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 35 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 18 ... 35  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum