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01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:43 pm

At 48 a little N of NAM at same time.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:45 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:18z gfs at hr 42, only site that's out that far that I know of for anyone who cares, isn't that a lot further south?

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 32 Usa_pr12

Idk about the surface, but H5 is looking surprisingly better than 12z though 48. Heights are higher along the East Coast with less confluence....

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:46 pm

Ladies and gents, we might actually have something here. 54 still not closed off and higher heights along EC. Let's give this a chance.....

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:47 pm

@Quietace wrote:W/Dynamic Ratios
01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 32 Snowfa10

I remember a storm a few years back where I got nothing IMBY. Saten Island received 6 to 8" and once you crossed into Jersey 1 foot+ all the way down to DC and Philly 20"+. Crazy sharp cut off. BUT THIS LOOKS CRAZIER!!! HOW CAN IT BE POSSIBLE FOR NENJ AND WESTERN LI TO SEE 18-20", BUT THE SOUTH SHORE OF CT 3-5" IMPOSSIBLE. NO FREAKIN WAY THIS HAPPENS!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

Just saw Rayno's video. He brings 12+ almost to Trenton and then goes 6-12" still through LI. says Ct and north/east are the bust zones possibly. He says the American and Euro both move the 500 low DUE EAST! causing cutoff issues. I say we trust our young leader Frank. He's confident and hopefully this continues jogs north!

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:49 pm

@algae888 wrote:no one within 50 miles of nyc should feel confident att with such a gradient as the models are showing. to close for comfort. I will not feel good about this until the snow actually starts falling.

I'm with you!!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:50 pm

Ehh lookin a little east at 69
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:52 pm

Another I-78 and south run

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:53 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:W/Dynamic Ratios
01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 32 Snowfa10

I remember a storm a few years back where I got nothing IMBY.  Saten Island received 6 to 8" and once you crossed into Jersey 1 foot+ all the way down to DC and Philly 20"+.  Crazy sharp cut off. BUT THIS LOOKS CRAZIER!!!  HOW CAN IT BE POSSIBLE FOR NENJ AND WESTERN LI TO SEE 18-20", BUT THE SOUTH SHORE OF CT 3-5"  IMPOSSIBLE.  NO FREAKIN WAY THIS HAPPENS!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

Just saw Rayno's video.  He brings 12+ almost to Trenton and then goes 6-12" still through LI.  says Ct and north/east are the bust zones possibly.  He says the American and Euro both move the 500 low DUE EAST!  causing cutoff issues.  I say we trust our young leader Frank.  He's confident and hopefully this continues jogs north!

In BDB I saw 6-7" while literally 5-10 miles east got 16-18". It happens, storm track was just far enough east to keep me out of the heavy banding for most of the storm and it led to a huge bust.... Had grassy spots on the yard.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:55 pm

It looks like it should have captured, then the 500mb trough just strung positive and shunted it OTS. Didnt happen this run. Weird evolution from Hatteras onward.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:57 pm

Actually its still negative but still goes OTS, hmmm.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:57 pm

not even gonna be the one to show the 18z snow map, lets just say matches 18z nam but to a much lesser degree on the large totals at the cutoff.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:58 pm

I do not like hearing the word OTS, that was Franks last choice for possibilities, that better not verify.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:59 pm

GFS says DC glory only

https://i.imgur.com/1M1PB9c.gif
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:00 pm

This is probably the most frustrating storm I've ever tracked. It's been days now. I'd rather it just a big hit or OTS, the surprise us all. ;-)

P.s. DGEX is great. :-p
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Post by Snowfall Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:00 pm

This is my last time following a storm my head hurts

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:00 pm

Not even close to the NAM, shafts NYS and SNE.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:01 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:This is probably the most frustrating storm I've ever tracked. It's been days now. I'd rather it just a big hit or OTS, the surprise us all. ;-)

P.s. DGEX is great. :-p

Sure its todays run, I didnt think it updated until 6.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:01 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:GFS says DC glory only

https://i.imgur.com/1M1PB9c.gif

Unbelievable consistency with this; reminds me of a little "blizzard" here last January prior to its arrival.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:02 pm

At least the NWS is doing special launches for this lol That's cool

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:03 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:This is probably the most frustrating storm I've ever tracked. It's been days now. I'd rather it just a big hit or OTS, the surprise us all. ;-)

P.s. DGEX is great. :-p

Sure its todays run, I didnt think it updated until 6.

Latest now takes it out to sea ahaha woo

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:03 pm

Ehh I think 00z will be much better, OR this just will not be handled right until the last minute for better or for worse. Nowcast anyone?
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Post by mancave25 Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:04 pm

Hey guys been following this site for sometime now and by reading everyone's post it seems like we could all agree that nw nj , the hudson valley and ne pa get screwed again oh well on to the next storm

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:05 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:GFS says DC glory only

https://i.imgur.com/1M1PB9c.gif

Unbelievable consistency with this; reminds me of a little "blizzard" here last January prior to its arrival.

Itd be nice if they got shafted last minute but ill keep those hateful thoughts to myself. They got a historic storm 6 years ago Im running on a very long drought in my area, never even seen 30-40 pretty sure 20something is my record which is annoying...
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:05 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ehh I think 00z will be much better, OR this just will not be handled right until the last minute for better or for worse.  Nowcast anyone?

I wish I could be on the positive train right now J, I do. But it's looking more and more progressive a system by the run. I'd say we need a miracle to get a foot in NYC metro. IMHO! :-)
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:05 pm

So Frank, sroc, rb why the bad trend again at 18z? I know this is kinda banter but this back and forth is tiring me out lol, and its big swings not little ones like a inch or two or huge mile changes.
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