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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:40 pm

I could not care less about the QPF; THE FACT THAT IT CAME NORTH SO MANY MILES IS THE SH*T!!!
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:40 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Well, this run is about to show a Roidzilla. This model always over does precip. Why is it still run?? 

I do like that it trended north with the H5 low though.

Frank and that the heights raise nicely and teh PAC vort seems to be a tad slower in crashing and weaker into the coast - that can be huge IMO.

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:41 pm

There has been a buzz about the 21Z SREFs.  Well I went onto to SPC regarding them and went for the plumes featuring snow totals for LaGuardia Airport.  Out of the 26 members:

6 showed no snow
4 showed between a coating to an inch
1 showed between 1-3 inches,
3 showed between 3 and 5 inches
2 showed between 5 and 6 inches,
3 showed between 6 and 12 inches,
3 showed between 12 and 18 inches,
3 showed between 18 and 25 inches, 
1 showed an amount that would make this forum rejoice.....35.23 inches of snow!

The SREF mean for this event is 7.49" and the median is 3.81."

Still a long way to go...


Last edited by Math23x7 on Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by snow247 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:41 pm

Feet of snow for NJ, yet still nothing north of Manhattan. Amazing.
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Post by Biggin23 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:43 pm

Oh my NAM

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:43 pm

Parts of NJ getting close to 4 feet on this run lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:43 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:Is there anything to learn from the crapier models?  Can u trust anything they say?  Like the northern trend? Or u can't trust anything it says?

I do think 500mb is worth looking at. On the 18z GFS the H5 low was on the boarder of VA/NC. On the NAM it's clearly off VA. The further north the better obviously. That would tuck the surface low closer to the coast

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:44 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:There has been a buzz about the 21Z SREFs.  Well I went onto to SPC regarding them and went for the plumes featuring snow totals for LaGuardia Airport.  Out of the 26 members:

6 showed no snow
4 showed between a coating to an inch
1 showed between 1-3 inches,
3 showed between 3 and 5 inches
2 showed between 5 and 6 inches,
3 showed between 6 and 12 inches,
3 showed between 12 and 18 inches,
2 showed between 20 and 25 inches, 
1 showed an amount that would make this forum rejoice.....35.23 inches of snow!

The SREF mean for this event is 7.49" and the median is 3.81."

Still a long way to go...

Yea when you break it down like that it's not a very good run. 00z GFS next. Chat in 15 minutes

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:45 pm

That woudl be insane if it EVER verified - my god 15 hours of sick insane snowfall rates 3-5" per hour from 69-75!!

Remind myself - its the NAM!!

BUT the jog by 100 miles N is key here peeps.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:46 pm

If this is the NAM showing its normal biases and its fooling with me... I will never look at what it shows ever again... Over 2' in CNJ holy sweet shit....
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Post by snow247 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:48 pm

Remember guys, chat starts at 10 Smile
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:48 pm

I wish one day the NAM could be right. One day.

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Post by jimv45 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:48 pm

Is it starting to look better for the hudson valley? or still a long way to go

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:49 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Is it starting to look better for the hudson valley? or still a long way to go

Long way to go but plenty of time left

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:50 pm

What I am MOST happy about?? The NAM just un-jackpotted DC & BM Laughing
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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:50 pm

Mio dio this is getting better and better

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:50 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I wish one day the NAM could be right. One day.

If it could one day be on to something, please be this storm...
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:50 pm

Even if you take 1/3rd off the precip of the nam, it is still very good, better that it is coming north

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Post by WeatherBob Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:51 pm

Anyone have a snow map of the NAM? Just curious.
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Post by snow247 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:52 pm

Wow, 16"-18" gets all the way up to northern Rockland/Westchester.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:52 pm

Couldn't resist....if only.

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 6 Namconus_asnow_neus_29

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:53 pm

@WeatherBob wrote:Anyone have a snow map of the NAM? Just curious.

Jesus
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277243
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:53 pm

00z NAM:

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 6 Czni1z10
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:54 pm

I thought we refered to it as the Not A Model. To pay attention only when it shows something positive for us isn't good!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:54 pm

0z RGEM 48

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016012100/I_nw_EST_2016012100_048.png
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