Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

by Guest Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:54 pm

I thought we refered to it as the Not A Model. To pay attention only when it shows something positive for us isn't good!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:54 pm

0z RGEM 48

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016012100/I_nw_EST_2016012100_048.png

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:55 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Anyone have a snow map of the NAM? Just curious.

by Biggin23 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:56 pm

I have a confession.....before the NAM run I put in the secret passcode for Contra...up, Up, down, down, left, right, B, A, select, start....works everytime!!

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:57 pm

Now if only we can move that tight northern gradient about 50-100 miles north.

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:58 pm

We really need the GFS to get. on. BOARD this run...

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:00 pm

I will be in the chat session. For those who do not want to join the chat, I will still post updates here AFTER the model run is over. Here is link to chat directions.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t638-chat-tonight-1000pm

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:03 pm

Going to bed goodnite to all but I am liking the results tonight

by **algae888** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:05 pm

snow247 wrote:
algae888 wrote:frank changed his avatar! nice I like it.

Your avatar is depressing lol

how about now? Very Happy

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:07 pm

algae888 wrote:
snow247 wrote:
algae888 wrote:frank changed his avatar! nice I like it.

Your avatar is depressing lol
how about now?

I personally still find it depressing Wink

but 90% of the board doesn't I can assure you.

by **devsman** Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:12 pm

Biggin23 wrote:I have a confession.....before the NAM run I put in the secret passcode for Contra...up, Up, down, down, left, right, B, A, select, start....works everytime!!

Many don't get that reference...I do. AWESOME!

by Abba701 Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:17 pm

NYC is not to far from 20 inches on CMC

by **billg315** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:19 pm

Not far at all. Where I'm at it gives me 12-18".

by Biggin23 Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:19 pm

devsman wrote:
Biggin23 wrote:I have a confession.....before the NAM run I put in the secret passcode for Contra...up, Up, down, down, left, right, B, A, select, start....works everytime!!

Many don't get that reference...I do. AWESOME!

by Abba701 Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:20 pm

And that was at 03z

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:21 pm

Just read this: "This storm is still being resolved in the models. In just 12 hours, big changes to GFS snow totals."

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:21 pm

00z runs update:

In general, the 00z GFS and 00z CMC made positive strides at the 500mb level. The problem is it did not reflect at the surface. I am not going to say this is convective feedback - though many think it is - rather I think the convection on the east side of the trough is very real and maybe the low level center WILL shift east at some point. What I am noticing is a lot of the PVA (positive vorticity advection) within the trough is rushing to the east side. Height contours are also trying to point northeast toward the north Atlantic.

The storm is slowing down. We went from a Friday 2pm start time to a Saturday 9-10am start time. Usually this is bad news. In this case it may actually be good news. Maybe it gives the trough time to go negative. It is too bad the western ridge is falling apart during the maturation process of the H5 low though. That could prevent the trough from getting to a negative tilt.

With 2 full days of model runs left I am not leaning one way or another. I still like my first call snow map. A 2nd call and new update will be issued tomorrow. This will still be a strong storm regardless of snow amounts. High winds and coastal flooding is nothing to sit on.

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:24 pm

Biggin23 wrote:I have a confession.....before the NAM run I put in the secret passcode for Contra...up, Up, down, down, left, right, B, A, select, start....works everytime!!

I literally just laughed so loud out loud I woke my wife up. She slapped me. LOLOL. Buahahhaa!!!!!! I so remember that.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:25 pm

RPM model

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 7 12418029_1167978983231248_3530284408938450333_n

by **WeatherBob** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:26 pm

Frank, you have a map of the GFS snowfall?

by **Artechmetals** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:27 pm

Hi Frank was scanning the forecasts and in particular Lonnie from channel 2 is saying he's seeing a rain snow line pushing into NYC is that possible

by **billg315** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:27 pm

I think from what I've see of all the models the difference has been is this a snowstorm or is this a huge snowstorm (for this area). I really haven't seen anything (yet) where we totally get shafted (except maybe some areas up in New York State). Any south trend worries me, but I don't see any reason to be in despair at this point.

by Biggin23 Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Biggin23 wrote:I have a confession.....before the NAM run I put in the secret passcode for Contra...up, Up, down, down, left, right, B, A, select, start....works everytime!!

I literally just laughed so loud out loud I woke my wife up. She slapped me. LOLOL. Buahahhaa!!!!!! I so remember that.

Literally the best code/game ever!!

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:RPM model

Where did you get this?

by **oldtimer** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:29 pm

Frank I mean the Euro has to be very good or that might be dire ??

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:29 pm

Reputable Source: "GFS has convective feedback issues... I mean hr 78 that run H5 low 350 miles SW of surface low....thats not an issue, thats a MAJOR PROBLEM."

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:32 pm

Very good sources are telling me there is CF everywhere. They recommend using meso models to forecast this system. Man, what a storm. I can't wait until Friday night.

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